Integrated Population Modeling Provides the First Empirical Estimates of Vital Rates and Abundance for Polar Bears in the Chukchi Sea
Abstract Large carnivores are imperiled globally, and characteristics making them vulnerable to extinction (e.g., low densities and expansive ranges) also make it difficult to estimate demographic parameters needed for management. Here we develop an integrated population model to analyze capture-rec...
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Nature Publishing Group
2018
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Online Access: | http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-34824-7.pdf https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-34824-7.pdf http://link.springer.com/article/10.1038/s41598-018-34824-7 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-34824-7 http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC6235872 http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-34824-7 https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30429493/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30429493 https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70216874 https://academic.microsoft.com/#/detail/2900343611 |
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fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:50|dedup_wf_001::8e398275ab5fe58e0c994876d028b3a9 2023-05-15T15:54:28+02:00 Integrated Population Modeling Provides the First Empirical Estimates of Vital Rates and Abundance for Polar Bears in the Chukchi Sea Nathan J. Hostetter Sarah J. Converse Ryan R. Wilson Eric V. Regehr Michelle St. Martin Karyn D. Rode 2018-11-14 http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-34824-7.pdf https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-34824-7.pdf http://link.springer.com/article/10.1038/s41598-018-34824-7 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-34824-7 http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC6235872 http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-34824-7 https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30429493/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30429493 https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70216874 https://academic.microsoft.com/#/detail/2900343611 en eng Nature Publishing Group http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-34824-7.pdf https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-34824-7.pdf http://link.springer.com/article/10.1038/s41598-018-34824-7 https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-34824-7 http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC6235872 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-34824-7 http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-34824-7 https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30429493/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30429493 https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70216874 https://academic.microsoft.com/#/detail/2900343611 lic_creative-commons oai:doaj.org/article:c5080411ece547c29539ebbf570df614 10.1038/s41598-018-34824-7 30429493 oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:6235872 34824 2900343611 10|driver______::bee53aa31dc2cbb538c10c2b65fa5824 10|doajarticles::70703810b20723fe33cba6ffd7128212 10|openaire____::9e3be59865b2c1c335d32dae2fe7b254 openaire____::1256f046-bf1f-4afc-8b47-d0b147148b18 10|opendoar____::eda80a3d5b344bc40f3bc04f65b7a357 10|opendoar____::8b6dd7db9af49e67306feb59a8bdc52c 10|openaire____::55045bd2a65019fd8e6741a755395c8c 10|openaire____::081b82f96300b6a6e3d282bad31cb6e2 10|openaire____::8ac8380272269217cb09a928c8caa993 10|openaire____::5f532a3fc4f1ea403f37070f59a7a53a 10|openaire____::806360c771262b4d6770e7cdf04b5c5a Article demo geo Journal Article https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_6501/ 2018 fttriple https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-34824-7 2023-01-22T17:14:33Z Abstract Large carnivores are imperiled globally, and characteristics making them vulnerable to extinction (e.g., low densities and expansive ranges) also make it difficult to estimate demographic parameters needed for management. Here we develop an integrated population model to analyze capture-recapture, radiotelemetry, and count data for the Chukchi Sea subpopulation of polar bears (Ursus maritimus), 2008–2016. Our model addressed several challenges in capture-recapture studies for polar bears by including a multievent structure reflecting location and life history states, while accommodating state uncertainty. Female breeding probability was 0.83 (95% credible interval [CRI] = 0.71–0.90), with litter sizes of 2.18 (95% CRI = 1.71–2.82) for age-zero and 1.61 (95% CRI = 1.46–1.80) for age-one cubs. Total adult survival was 0.90 (95% CRI = 0.86–0.92) for females and 0.89 (95% CRI = 0.83–0.93) for males. Spring on-ice densities west of Alaska were 0.0030 bears/km2 (95% CRI = 0.0016–0.0060), similar to 1980s-era density estimates although methodological differences complicate comparison. Abundance of the Chukchi Sea subpopulation, derived by extrapolating density from the study area using a spatially-explicit habitat metric, was 2,937 bears (95% CRI = 1,552–5,944). Our findings are consistent with other lines of evidence suggesting the Chukchi Sea subpopulation has been productive in recent years, although it is uncertain how long this will continue given sea-ice loss due to climate change. Article in Journal/Newspaper Chukchi Chukchi Sea Sea ice Ursus maritimus Alaska Unknown Chukchi Sea Scientific Reports 8 1 |
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English |
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Article demo geo |
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Article demo geo Nathan J. Hostetter Sarah J. Converse Ryan R. Wilson Eric V. Regehr Michelle St. Martin Karyn D. Rode Integrated Population Modeling Provides the First Empirical Estimates of Vital Rates and Abundance for Polar Bears in the Chukchi Sea |
topic_facet |
Article demo geo |
description |
Abstract Large carnivores are imperiled globally, and characteristics making them vulnerable to extinction (e.g., low densities and expansive ranges) also make it difficult to estimate demographic parameters needed for management. Here we develop an integrated population model to analyze capture-recapture, radiotelemetry, and count data for the Chukchi Sea subpopulation of polar bears (Ursus maritimus), 2008–2016. Our model addressed several challenges in capture-recapture studies for polar bears by including a multievent structure reflecting location and life history states, while accommodating state uncertainty. Female breeding probability was 0.83 (95% credible interval [CRI] = 0.71–0.90), with litter sizes of 2.18 (95% CRI = 1.71–2.82) for age-zero and 1.61 (95% CRI = 1.46–1.80) for age-one cubs. Total adult survival was 0.90 (95% CRI = 0.86–0.92) for females and 0.89 (95% CRI = 0.83–0.93) for males. Spring on-ice densities west of Alaska were 0.0030 bears/km2 (95% CRI = 0.0016–0.0060), similar to 1980s-era density estimates although methodological differences complicate comparison. Abundance of the Chukchi Sea subpopulation, derived by extrapolating density from the study area using a spatially-explicit habitat metric, was 2,937 bears (95% CRI = 1,552–5,944). Our findings are consistent with other lines of evidence suggesting the Chukchi Sea subpopulation has been productive in recent years, although it is uncertain how long this will continue given sea-ice loss due to climate change. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Nathan J. Hostetter Sarah J. Converse Ryan R. Wilson Eric V. Regehr Michelle St. Martin Karyn D. Rode |
author_facet |
Nathan J. Hostetter Sarah J. Converse Ryan R. Wilson Eric V. Regehr Michelle St. Martin Karyn D. Rode |
author_sort |
Nathan J. Hostetter |
title |
Integrated Population Modeling Provides the First Empirical Estimates of Vital Rates and Abundance for Polar Bears in the Chukchi Sea |
title_short |
Integrated Population Modeling Provides the First Empirical Estimates of Vital Rates and Abundance for Polar Bears in the Chukchi Sea |
title_full |
Integrated Population Modeling Provides the First Empirical Estimates of Vital Rates and Abundance for Polar Bears in the Chukchi Sea |
title_fullStr |
Integrated Population Modeling Provides the First Empirical Estimates of Vital Rates and Abundance for Polar Bears in the Chukchi Sea |
title_full_unstemmed |
Integrated Population Modeling Provides the First Empirical Estimates of Vital Rates and Abundance for Polar Bears in the Chukchi Sea |
title_sort |
integrated population modeling provides the first empirical estimates of vital rates and abundance for polar bears in the chukchi sea |
publisher |
Nature Publishing Group |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-34824-7.pdf https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-34824-7.pdf http://link.springer.com/article/10.1038/s41598-018-34824-7 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-34824-7 http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC6235872 http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-34824-7 https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30429493/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30429493 https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70216874 https://academic.microsoft.com/#/detail/2900343611 |
geographic |
Chukchi Sea |
geographic_facet |
Chukchi Sea |
genre |
Chukchi Chukchi Sea Sea ice Ursus maritimus Alaska |
genre_facet |
Chukchi Chukchi Sea Sea ice Ursus maritimus Alaska |
op_source |
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op_relation |
http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-34824-7.pdf https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-34824-7.pdf http://link.springer.com/article/10.1038/s41598-018-34824-7 https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-34824-7 http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC6235872 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-34824-7 http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-34824-7 https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30429493/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30429493 https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70216874 https://academic.microsoft.com/#/detail/2900343611 |
op_rights |
lic_creative-commons |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-34824-7 |
container_title |
Scientific Reports |
container_volume |
8 |
container_issue |
1 |
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1766389657348603904 |