Dryad Item 10.5061/DRYAD.S1C5M5K
Understanding the relationship between environmental factors and vital rates is an important step in predicting a species’ response to environmental change. Species associated with sea ice are of particular concern because sea ice is projected to decrease rapidly in polar environments with continued...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.s1c5m5k |
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fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:50|dedup_wf_001::68d7f300de7fc35de02c26d4805280a4 2023-05-15T15:43:30+02:00 Dryad Item 10.5061/DRYAD.S1C5M5K Christie, Katherine S. Hollmen, Tuula E. Flint, Paul Douglas, David 2018-10-01 https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.s1c5m5k undefined unknown https://dx.doi.org/10.5061/dryad.s1c5m5k http://dx.doi.org/10.5061/dryad.s1c5m5k lic_creative-commons 10.5061/dryad.s1c5m5k oai:easy.dans.knaw.nl:easy-dataset:118021 oai:services.nod.dans.knaw.nl:Products/dans:oai:easy.dans.knaw.nl:easy-dataset:118021 10|openaire____::9e3be59865b2c1c335d32dae2fe7b254 re3data_____::r3d100000044 10|re3data_____::84e123776089ce3c7a33db98d9cd15a8 10|eurocrisdris::fe4903425d9040f680d8610d9079ea14 10|re3data_____::94816e6421eeb072e7742ce6a9decc5f 10|opendoar____::8b6dd7db9af49e67306feb59a8bdc52c sea ice survival Somateria fischeri mark-recapture Spectacled Eider Life sciences medicine and health care envir geo Dataset https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_ddb1/ 2018 fttriple https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.s1c5m5k 2023-01-22T16:53:20Z Understanding the relationship between environmental factors and vital rates is an important step in predicting a species’ response to environmental change. Species associated with sea ice are of particular concern because sea ice is projected to decrease rapidly in polar environments with continued levels of greenhouse gas emissions. The relationship between sea ice and the vital rates of the Spectacled Eider, a threatened species that breeds in Alaska and Russia and winters in the Bering Sea, appears to be complex. While severe ice can impede foraging for benthic prey, ice also suppresses wave action and provides a platform on which eiders roost, thereby reducing thermoregulation costs. We analyzed a 23-year mark-recapture dataset for Spectacled Eiders nesting on Kigigak Island in western Alaska, and tested survival models containing different ice and weather-related covariates. We found that much of the variation in eider survival could be explained by the number of days per year with >95% sea ice concentration at the Bering Sea core wintering area. Furthermore, the data supported a quadratic relationship with sea ice rather than a linear one, indicating that intermediate sea ice concentrations were optimal for survival. We then used matrix population models to project population trajectories using General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs of daily sea ice cover. GCMs projected reduced sea ice at the wintering area by year 2100 under a moderated emissions scenario (RCP 4.5) and nearly ice-free conditions under an unabated emissions scenario (RCP 8.5). Under RCP 4.5, stochastic models projected an increase in population size until 2069 coincident with moderate ice conditions, followed by a decline in population size as ice conditions shifted from intermediate to mostly ice-free. Under RCP 8.5, eider abundance increased until 2040 and then decreased to near extirpation toward the end of the century as the Bering Sea became ice-free. Annual_ice_combProjected sea ice data (number of days with >95% sea ice ... Dataset Bering Sea Sea ice Alaska Unknown Bering Sea |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Unknown |
op_collection_id |
fttriple |
language |
unknown |
topic |
sea ice survival Somateria fischeri mark-recapture Spectacled Eider Life sciences medicine and health care envir geo |
spellingShingle |
sea ice survival Somateria fischeri mark-recapture Spectacled Eider Life sciences medicine and health care envir geo Christie, Katherine S. Hollmen, Tuula E. Flint, Paul Douglas, David Dryad Item 10.5061/DRYAD.S1C5M5K |
topic_facet |
sea ice survival Somateria fischeri mark-recapture Spectacled Eider Life sciences medicine and health care envir geo |
description |
Understanding the relationship between environmental factors and vital rates is an important step in predicting a species’ response to environmental change. Species associated with sea ice are of particular concern because sea ice is projected to decrease rapidly in polar environments with continued levels of greenhouse gas emissions. The relationship between sea ice and the vital rates of the Spectacled Eider, a threatened species that breeds in Alaska and Russia and winters in the Bering Sea, appears to be complex. While severe ice can impede foraging for benthic prey, ice also suppresses wave action and provides a platform on which eiders roost, thereby reducing thermoregulation costs. We analyzed a 23-year mark-recapture dataset for Spectacled Eiders nesting on Kigigak Island in western Alaska, and tested survival models containing different ice and weather-related covariates. We found that much of the variation in eider survival could be explained by the number of days per year with >95% sea ice concentration at the Bering Sea core wintering area. Furthermore, the data supported a quadratic relationship with sea ice rather than a linear one, indicating that intermediate sea ice concentrations were optimal for survival. We then used matrix population models to project population trajectories using General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs of daily sea ice cover. GCMs projected reduced sea ice at the wintering area by year 2100 under a moderated emissions scenario (RCP 4.5) and nearly ice-free conditions under an unabated emissions scenario (RCP 8.5). Under RCP 4.5, stochastic models projected an increase in population size until 2069 coincident with moderate ice conditions, followed by a decline in population size as ice conditions shifted from intermediate to mostly ice-free. Under RCP 8.5, eider abundance increased until 2040 and then decreased to near extirpation toward the end of the century as the Bering Sea became ice-free. Annual_ice_combProjected sea ice data (number of days with >95% sea ice ... |
format |
Dataset |
author |
Christie, Katherine S. Hollmen, Tuula E. Flint, Paul Douglas, David |
author_facet |
Christie, Katherine S. Hollmen, Tuula E. Flint, Paul Douglas, David |
author_sort |
Christie, Katherine S. |
title |
Dryad Item 10.5061/DRYAD.S1C5M5K |
title_short |
Dryad Item 10.5061/DRYAD.S1C5M5K |
title_full |
Dryad Item 10.5061/DRYAD.S1C5M5K |
title_fullStr |
Dryad Item 10.5061/DRYAD.S1C5M5K |
title_full_unstemmed |
Dryad Item 10.5061/DRYAD.S1C5M5K |
title_sort |
dryad item 10.5061/dryad.s1c5m5k |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.s1c5m5k |
geographic |
Bering Sea |
geographic_facet |
Bering Sea |
genre |
Bering Sea Sea ice Alaska |
genre_facet |
Bering Sea Sea ice Alaska |
op_source |
10.5061/dryad.s1c5m5k oai:easy.dans.knaw.nl:easy-dataset:118021 oai:services.nod.dans.knaw.nl:Products/dans:oai:easy.dans.knaw.nl:easy-dataset:118021 10|openaire____::9e3be59865b2c1c335d32dae2fe7b254 re3data_____::r3d100000044 10|re3data_____::84e123776089ce3c7a33db98d9cd15a8 10|eurocrisdris::fe4903425d9040f680d8610d9079ea14 10|re3data_____::94816e6421eeb072e7742ce6a9decc5f 10|opendoar____::8b6dd7db9af49e67306feb59a8bdc52c |
op_relation |
https://dx.doi.org/10.5061/dryad.s1c5m5k http://dx.doi.org/10.5061/dryad.s1c5m5k |
op_rights |
lic_creative-commons |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.s1c5m5k |
_version_ |
1766377661313056768 |