| Summary: | Climate change may influence the phenology of organisms unequally across trophic levels and thus lead to phenological mismatches between predators and prey. In cases where prey availability peaks before reproducing predators reach maximal prey demand, any negative fitness consequences would selectively favor resynchronization by earlier starts of the reproductive activities of the predators. At a study site in northeast Greenland, over a period of 17 years, the median emergence of the invertebrate prey of Sanderling Calidris alba advanced with 1.27 days per year. Yet, over the same period Sanderling did not advance hatching date. Thus, Sanderlings increasingly hatched after their prey was maximally abundant. Surprisingly, the phenological mismatches did not affect chick growth, but the interaction of the annual width and height of the peak in food abundance did. Chicks grew especially better in years when the food peak was broad. Sanderling clutches were most likely to be depredated early in the season, which should delay reproduction. We propose that high early clutch predation may favor a later reproductive timing. Additionally, our data suggest that in most years food was still abundant after the median date of emergence, which may explain why Sanderlings did not advance breeding along with the advances in arthropod phenology. Reneerkens et al 2016 Ecol&Evol -Clutch survivalTable of histories of Sanderling (Calidris alba) clutches in Zackenberg, northeast Greenland, 2007-2013. Columns contain data about (1) “Date found”, the day of the breeding season on which the nest was found; (2) “Date last checked when alive”, the last day the clutch was checked when alive; (3) “Date last checked”, the last day the clutch was checked; (4) “Fate”, the fate of the nest (0 = successfully hatched, 1 = depredated) and (5) “Hatch date”, the date of hatch, which was observed in case the clutch was successful, or estimated based on egg flotation, in case the clutch was not successful. Dates are scaled such that 10 June is ...
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