Data from: Integrated population modeling provides the first empirical estimates of vital rates and abundance for polar bears in the Chukchi Sea
Large carnivores are imperiled globally, and characteristics making them vulnerable to extinction (e.g., low densities and expansive ranges) also make it difficult to estimate demographic parameters needed for management. Here we develop an integrated population model to analyze capture-recapture, r...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.692jb15 |
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fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:50|dedup_wf_001::18ff98054c23584a52d4b9fbd48f407e 2023-05-15T15:54:23+02:00 Data from: Integrated population modeling provides the first empirical estimates of vital rates and abundance for polar bears in the Chukchi Sea Regehr, Eric V. Hostetter, Nathan J. Wilson, Ryan R. Rode, Karyn D. St. Martin, Michelle Converse, Sarah J. 2019-11-02 https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.692jb15 en eng Dryad http://dx.doi.org/10.5061/dryad.692jb15 https://dx.doi.org/10.5061/dryad.692jb15 lic_creative-commons 10.5061/dryad.692jb15 oai:services.nod.dans.knaw.nl:Products/dans:oai:easy.dans.knaw.nl:easy-dataset:119122 oai:easy.dans.knaw.nl:easy-dataset:119122 10|openaire____::9e3be59865b2c1c335d32dae2fe7b254 10|re3data_____::94816e6421eeb072e7742ce6a9decc5f 10|eurocrisdris::fe4903425d9040f680d8610d9079ea14 10|re3data_____::84e123776089ce3c7a33db98d9cd15a8 re3data_____::r3d100000044 10|opendoar____::8b6dd7db9af49e67306feb59a8bdc52c vital rates polar bear abundance sea ice capture-recapture carnivore movement integrated population model Ursus maritimus Life sciences medicine and health care climate change demo geo Dataset https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_ddb1/ 2019 fttriple https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.692jb15 2023-01-22T16:53:41Z Large carnivores are imperiled globally, and characteristics making them vulnerable to extinction (e.g., low densities and expansive ranges) also make it difficult to estimate demographic parameters needed for management. Here we develop an integrated population model to analyze capture-recapture, radiotelemetry, and count data for the Chukchi Sea subpopulation of polar bears (Ursus maritimus), 2008–2016. Our model addressed several challenges in capture-recapture studies for polar bears by including a multievent structure reflecting location and life history states, while accommodating state uncertainty. Female breeding probability was 0.83 (95% credible interval [CRI] = 0.71–0.90), with litter sizes of 2.18 (95% CRI = 1.71–2.82) for age-zero and 1.61 (95% CRI = 1.46–1.80) for age-one cubs. Total adult survival was 0.90 (95% CRI = 0.86–0.92) for females and 0.89 (95% CRI = 0.83–0.93) for males. Spring on-ice densities west of Alaska were 0.0030 bears/km2 (95% CRI = 0.0016–0.0060), similar to 1980s-era density estimates although methodological differences complicate comparison. Abundance of the Chukchi Sea subpopulation, derived by extrapolating density from the study area using a spatially-explicit habitat metric, was 2,937 bears (95% CRI = 1,552–5,944). Our findings are consistent with other lines of evidence suggesting the Chukchi Sea subpopulation has been productive in recent years, although it is uncertain how long this will continue given sea-ice loss due to climate change. Regehr2018_PolarBear_IPM_GOFR code and JAGS model to run the Integrated Population Model and goodness-of-fit for Chukchi Sea polar bearsRegehr2018_jags_dataData for the Integrated Population ModelRegehr2018_state_initsInitial values for the Integrated Population ModelRegehr2018_PolarBear_NR code for density extrapolation and abundance estimation for Chukchi Sea polar bearsRegehr2018_dextrp_dataData for density extrapolation and abundance estimationRegehr2018_PolarBear_recruitmentR code for separate recruitment analyses for Chukchi Sea ... Dataset Chukchi Chukchi Sea Sea ice Ursus maritimus Alaska Unknown Chukchi Sea |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Unknown |
op_collection_id |
fttriple |
language |
English |
topic |
vital rates polar bear abundance sea ice capture-recapture carnivore movement integrated population model Ursus maritimus Life sciences medicine and health care climate change demo geo |
spellingShingle |
vital rates polar bear abundance sea ice capture-recapture carnivore movement integrated population model Ursus maritimus Life sciences medicine and health care climate change demo geo Regehr, Eric V. Hostetter, Nathan J. Wilson, Ryan R. Rode, Karyn D. St. Martin, Michelle Converse, Sarah J. Data from: Integrated population modeling provides the first empirical estimates of vital rates and abundance for polar bears in the Chukchi Sea |
topic_facet |
vital rates polar bear abundance sea ice capture-recapture carnivore movement integrated population model Ursus maritimus Life sciences medicine and health care climate change demo geo |
description |
Large carnivores are imperiled globally, and characteristics making them vulnerable to extinction (e.g., low densities and expansive ranges) also make it difficult to estimate demographic parameters needed for management. Here we develop an integrated population model to analyze capture-recapture, radiotelemetry, and count data for the Chukchi Sea subpopulation of polar bears (Ursus maritimus), 2008–2016. Our model addressed several challenges in capture-recapture studies for polar bears by including a multievent structure reflecting location and life history states, while accommodating state uncertainty. Female breeding probability was 0.83 (95% credible interval [CRI] = 0.71–0.90), with litter sizes of 2.18 (95% CRI = 1.71–2.82) for age-zero and 1.61 (95% CRI = 1.46–1.80) for age-one cubs. Total adult survival was 0.90 (95% CRI = 0.86–0.92) for females and 0.89 (95% CRI = 0.83–0.93) for males. Spring on-ice densities west of Alaska were 0.0030 bears/km2 (95% CRI = 0.0016–0.0060), similar to 1980s-era density estimates although methodological differences complicate comparison. Abundance of the Chukchi Sea subpopulation, derived by extrapolating density from the study area using a spatially-explicit habitat metric, was 2,937 bears (95% CRI = 1,552–5,944). Our findings are consistent with other lines of evidence suggesting the Chukchi Sea subpopulation has been productive in recent years, although it is uncertain how long this will continue given sea-ice loss due to climate change. Regehr2018_PolarBear_IPM_GOFR code and JAGS model to run the Integrated Population Model and goodness-of-fit for Chukchi Sea polar bearsRegehr2018_jags_dataData for the Integrated Population ModelRegehr2018_state_initsInitial values for the Integrated Population ModelRegehr2018_PolarBear_NR code for density extrapolation and abundance estimation for Chukchi Sea polar bearsRegehr2018_dextrp_dataData for density extrapolation and abundance estimationRegehr2018_PolarBear_recruitmentR code for separate recruitment analyses for Chukchi Sea ... |
format |
Dataset |
author |
Regehr, Eric V. Hostetter, Nathan J. Wilson, Ryan R. Rode, Karyn D. St. Martin, Michelle Converse, Sarah J. |
author_facet |
Regehr, Eric V. Hostetter, Nathan J. Wilson, Ryan R. Rode, Karyn D. St. Martin, Michelle Converse, Sarah J. |
author_sort |
Regehr, Eric V. |
title |
Data from: Integrated population modeling provides the first empirical estimates of vital rates and abundance for polar bears in the Chukchi Sea |
title_short |
Data from: Integrated population modeling provides the first empirical estimates of vital rates and abundance for polar bears in the Chukchi Sea |
title_full |
Data from: Integrated population modeling provides the first empirical estimates of vital rates and abundance for polar bears in the Chukchi Sea |
title_fullStr |
Data from: Integrated population modeling provides the first empirical estimates of vital rates and abundance for polar bears in the Chukchi Sea |
title_full_unstemmed |
Data from: Integrated population modeling provides the first empirical estimates of vital rates and abundance for polar bears in the Chukchi Sea |
title_sort |
data from: integrated population modeling provides the first empirical estimates of vital rates and abundance for polar bears in the chukchi sea |
publisher |
Dryad |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.692jb15 |
geographic |
Chukchi Sea |
geographic_facet |
Chukchi Sea |
genre |
Chukchi Chukchi Sea Sea ice Ursus maritimus Alaska |
genre_facet |
Chukchi Chukchi Sea Sea ice Ursus maritimus Alaska |
op_source |
10.5061/dryad.692jb15 oai:services.nod.dans.knaw.nl:Products/dans:oai:easy.dans.knaw.nl:easy-dataset:119122 oai:easy.dans.knaw.nl:easy-dataset:119122 10|openaire____::9e3be59865b2c1c335d32dae2fe7b254 10|re3data_____::94816e6421eeb072e7742ce6a9decc5f 10|eurocrisdris::fe4903425d9040f680d8610d9079ea14 10|re3data_____::84e123776089ce3c7a33db98d9cd15a8 re3data_____::r3d100000044 10|opendoar____::8b6dd7db9af49e67306feb59a8bdc52c |
op_relation |
http://dx.doi.org/10.5061/dryad.692jb15 https://dx.doi.org/10.5061/dryad.692jb15 |
op_rights |
lic_creative-commons |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.692jb15 |
_version_ |
1766389557990785024 |