Historical Northern Hemisphere snow cover trends and projected changes in the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble
International audience This paper presents an analysis of observed and simulated historical snow cover extent and snow mass, along with future snow cover projections from models participating in the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Where appropr...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2495-2020 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03051782/file/mudryk_2020_TC_snow_CMIP6.pdf https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03051782 |
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fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:10670/1.zud75v 2023-05-15T16:37:53+02:00 Historical Northern Hemisphere snow cover trends and projected changes in the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble Mudryk, Lawrence Santolaria-Otín, María Krinner, Gerhard Ménégoz, Martin Derksen, Chris Brutel-Vuilmet, Claire Brady, Mike Essery, Richard Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP ) Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA) 2020-07-31 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2495-2020 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03051782/file/mudryk_2020_TC_snow_CMIP6.pdf https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03051782 en eng HAL CCSD Copernicus hal-03051782 doi:10.5194/tc-14-2495-2020 10670/1.zud75v https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03051782/file/mudryk_2020_TC_snow_CMIP6.pdf https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03051782 Hyper Article en Ligne - Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société ISSN: 1994-0424 EISSN: 1994-0416 The Cryosphere The Cryosphere, Copernicus 2020, 14 (7), pp.2495 - 2514. ⟨10.5194/tc-14-2495-2020⟩ geo envir Journal Article https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_6501/ 2020 fttriple https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2495-2020 2023-01-22T17:09:13Z International audience This paper presents an analysis of observed and simulated historical snow cover extent and snow mass, along with future snow cover projections from models participating in the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Where appropriate, the CMIP6 output is compared to CMIP5 results in order to assess progress (or absence thereof) between successive model generations. An ensemble of six observation-based products is used to produce a new time series of historical Northern Hemisphere snow extent anomalies and trends; a subset of four of these products is used for snow mass. Trends in snow extent over 1981–2018 are negative in all months and exceed −50×103 km2 yr−1 during November, December, March, and May. Snow mass trends are approximately −5 Gt yr−1 or more for all months from December to May. Overall, the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble better represents the snow extent climatology over the 1981–2014 period for all months, correcting a low bias in CMIP5. Simulated snow extent and snow mass trends over the 1981–2014 period are stronger in CMIP6 than in CMIP5, although large inter-model spread remains in the simulated trends for both variables. There is a single linear relationship between projected spring snow extent and global surface air temperature (GSAT) changes, which is valid across all CMIP6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. This finding suggests that Northern Hemisphere spring snow extent will decrease by about 8 % relative to the 1995–2014 level per degree Celsius of GSAT increase. The sensitivity of snow to temperature forcing largely explains the absence of any climate change pathway dependency, similar to other fast-response components of the cryosphere such as sea ice and near-surface permafrost extent. Article in Journal/Newspaper Ice permafrost Sea ice The Cryosphere Unknown The Cryosphere 14 7 2495 2514 |
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English |
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geo envir Mudryk, Lawrence Santolaria-Otín, María Krinner, Gerhard Ménégoz, Martin Derksen, Chris Brutel-Vuilmet, Claire Brady, Mike Essery, Richard Historical Northern Hemisphere snow cover trends and projected changes in the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble |
topic_facet |
geo envir |
description |
International audience This paper presents an analysis of observed and simulated historical snow cover extent and snow mass, along with future snow cover projections from models participating in the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Where appropriate, the CMIP6 output is compared to CMIP5 results in order to assess progress (or absence thereof) between successive model generations. An ensemble of six observation-based products is used to produce a new time series of historical Northern Hemisphere snow extent anomalies and trends; a subset of four of these products is used for snow mass. Trends in snow extent over 1981–2018 are negative in all months and exceed −50×103 km2 yr−1 during November, December, March, and May. Snow mass trends are approximately −5 Gt yr−1 or more for all months from December to May. Overall, the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble better represents the snow extent climatology over the 1981–2014 period for all months, correcting a low bias in CMIP5. Simulated snow extent and snow mass trends over the 1981–2014 period are stronger in CMIP6 than in CMIP5, although large inter-model spread remains in the simulated trends for both variables. There is a single linear relationship between projected spring snow extent and global surface air temperature (GSAT) changes, which is valid across all CMIP6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. This finding suggests that Northern Hemisphere spring snow extent will decrease by about 8 % relative to the 1995–2014 level per degree Celsius of GSAT increase. The sensitivity of snow to temperature forcing largely explains the absence of any climate change pathway dependency, similar to other fast-response components of the cryosphere such as sea ice and near-surface permafrost extent. |
author2 |
Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP ) Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Mudryk, Lawrence Santolaria-Otín, María Krinner, Gerhard Ménégoz, Martin Derksen, Chris Brutel-Vuilmet, Claire Brady, Mike Essery, Richard |
author_facet |
Mudryk, Lawrence Santolaria-Otín, María Krinner, Gerhard Ménégoz, Martin Derksen, Chris Brutel-Vuilmet, Claire Brady, Mike Essery, Richard |
author_sort |
Mudryk, Lawrence |
title |
Historical Northern Hemisphere snow cover trends and projected changes in the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble |
title_short |
Historical Northern Hemisphere snow cover trends and projected changes in the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble |
title_full |
Historical Northern Hemisphere snow cover trends and projected changes in the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble |
title_fullStr |
Historical Northern Hemisphere snow cover trends and projected changes in the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble |
title_full_unstemmed |
Historical Northern Hemisphere snow cover trends and projected changes in the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble |
title_sort |
historical northern hemisphere snow cover trends and projected changes in the cmip6 multi-model ensemble |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2495-2020 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03051782/file/mudryk_2020_TC_snow_CMIP6.pdf https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03051782 |
genre |
Ice permafrost Sea ice The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Ice permafrost Sea ice The Cryosphere |
op_source |
Hyper Article en Ligne - Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société ISSN: 1994-0424 EISSN: 1994-0416 The Cryosphere The Cryosphere, Copernicus 2020, 14 (7), pp.2495 - 2514. ⟨10.5194/tc-14-2495-2020⟩ |
op_relation |
hal-03051782 doi:10.5194/tc-14-2495-2020 10670/1.zud75v https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03051782/file/mudryk_2020_TC_snow_CMIP6.pdf https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03051782 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2495-2020 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
14 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
2495 |
op_container_end_page |
2514 |
_version_ |
1766028190163140608 |