Variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in the last millennium and two IPCC scenarios
International audience The variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is investigated in several climate simulations with the ECHO-G atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, including two forced integrations of the last millennium, one millennial-long control run, and t...
Published in: | Climate Dynamics |
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Main Authors: | , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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HAL CCSD
2012
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1007/S00382-011-1081-6 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00757282 |
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fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:10670/1.y81tpj |
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openpolar |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Unknown |
op_collection_id |
fttriple |
language |
English |
topic |
Atlantic meridional overturning circulation Future climate change Multidecadal variability Forced millennial simulations geo envir |
spellingShingle |
Atlantic meridional overturning circulation Future climate change Multidecadal variability Forced millennial simulations geo envir Ortega, Pablo Montoya, Marisa González-Rouco, Fidel Mignot, Juliette Legutke, Stephanie Variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in the last millennium and two IPCC scenarios |
topic_facet |
Atlantic meridional overturning circulation Future climate change Multidecadal variability Forced millennial simulations geo envir |
description |
International audience The variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is investigated in several climate simulations with the ECHO-G atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, including two forced integrations of the last millennium, one millennial-long control run, and two future scenario simulations of the twenty-first century. This constitutes a new framework in which the AMOC response to future climate change conditions is addressed in the context of both its past evolution and its natural variability. The main mechanisms responsible for the AMOC variability at interannual and multidecadal time scales are described. At high frequencies, the AMOC is directly responding to local changes in the Ekman transport, associated with three modes of climate variability: El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the East Atlantic (EA) pattern. At low frequencies, the AMOC is largely controlled by convection activity south of Greenland. Again, the atmosphere is found to play a leading role in these variations. Positive anomalies of convection are preceded in 1 year by intensified zonal winds, associated in the forced runs to a positive NAO-like pattern. Finally, the sensitivity of the AMOC to three different forcing factors is investigated. The major impact is associated with increasing greenhouse gases, given their strong and persistent radiative forcing. Starting in the Industrial Era and continuing in the future scenarios, the AMOC experiences a final decrease of up to 40% with respect to the preindustrial average. Also, a weak but significant AMOC strengthening is found in response to the major volcanic eruptions, which produce colder and saltier surface conditions over the main convection regions. In contrast, no meaningful impact of the solar forcing on the AMOC is observed. Indeed, solar irradiance only affects convection in the Nordic Seas, with a marginal contribution to the AMOC variability in the ECHO-G runs. |
author2 |
Variabilité climatique tropicale et globale (VARCLIM) Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Ortega, Pablo Montoya, Marisa González-Rouco, Fidel Mignot, Juliette Legutke, Stephanie |
author_facet |
Ortega, Pablo Montoya, Marisa González-Rouco, Fidel Mignot, Juliette Legutke, Stephanie |
author_sort |
Ortega, Pablo |
title |
Variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in the last millennium and two IPCC scenarios |
title_short |
Variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in the last millennium and two IPCC scenarios |
title_full |
Variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in the last millennium and two IPCC scenarios |
title_fullStr |
Variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in the last millennium and two IPCC scenarios |
title_full_unstemmed |
Variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in the last millennium and two IPCC scenarios |
title_sort |
variability of the atlantic meridional overturning circulation in the last millennium and two ipcc scenarios |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2012 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1007/S00382-011-1081-6 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00757282 |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Greenland Nordic Seas North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
Greenland Nordic Seas North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Hyper Article en Ligne - Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société ISSN: 0930-7575 EISSN: 1432-0894 Climate Dynamics Climate Dynamics, Springer Verlag, 2012, 38, pp.1925-1947. ⟨10.1007/S00382-011-1081-6⟩ |
op_relation |
hal-00757282 BIBCODE: 2012ClDy.38.1925O doi:10.1007/S00382-011-1081-6 IRD: fdi:010055874 10670/1.y81tpj https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00757282 |
op_rights |
undefined |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/S00382-011-1081-6 |
container_title |
Climate Dynamics |
container_volume |
38 |
container_issue |
9-10 |
container_start_page |
1925 |
op_container_end_page |
1947 |
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1766020022197551104 |
spelling |
fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:10670/1.y81tpj 2023-05-15T16:30:18+02:00 Variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in the last millennium and two IPCC scenarios Ortega, Pablo Montoya, Marisa González-Rouco, Fidel Mignot, Juliette Legutke, Stephanie Variabilité climatique tropicale et globale (VARCLIM) Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) 2012-05-01 https://doi.org/10.1007/S00382-011-1081-6 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00757282 en eng HAL CCSD Springer Verlag hal-00757282 BIBCODE: 2012ClDy.38.1925O doi:10.1007/S00382-011-1081-6 IRD: fdi:010055874 10670/1.y81tpj https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00757282 undefined Hyper Article en Ligne - Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société ISSN: 0930-7575 EISSN: 1432-0894 Climate Dynamics Climate Dynamics, Springer Verlag, 2012, 38, pp.1925-1947. ⟨10.1007/S00382-011-1081-6⟩ Atlantic meridional overturning circulation Future climate change Multidecadal variability Forced millennial simulations geo envir Journal Article https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_6501/ 2012 fttriple https://doi.org/10.1007/S00382-011-1081-6 2023-01-22T17:03:12Z International audience The variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is investigated in several climate simulations with the ECHO-G atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, including two forced integrations of the last millennium, one millennial-long control run, and two future scenario simulations of the twenty-first century. This constitutes a new framework in which the AMOC response to future climate change conditions is addressed in the context of both its past evolution and its natural variability. The main mechanisms responsible for the AMOC variability at interannual and multidecadal time scales are described. At high frequencies, the AMOC is directly responding to local changes in the Ekman transport, associated with three modes of climate variability: El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the East Atlantic (EA) pattern. At low frequencies, the AMOC is largely controlled by convection activity south of Greenland. Again, the atmosphere is found to play a leading role in these variations. Positive anomalies of convection are preceded in 1 year by intensified zonal winds, associated in the forced runs to a positive NAO-like pattern. Finally, the sensitivity of the AMOC to three different forcing factors is investigated. The major impact is associated with increasing greenhouse gases, given their strong and persistent radiative forcing. Starting in the Industrial Era and continuing in the future scenarios, the AMOC experiences a final decrease of up to 40% with respect to the preindustrial average. Also, a weak but significant AMOC strengthening is found in response to the major volcanic eruptions, which produce colder and saltier surface conditions over the main convection regions. In contrast, no meaningful impact of the solar forcing on the AMOC is observed. Indeed, solar irradiance only affects convection in the Nordic Seas, with a marginal contribution to the AMOC variability in the ECHO-G runs. Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Nordic Seas North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Unknown Greenland Climate Dynamics 38 9-10 1925 1947 |