Seasonal Precipitation Forecast Over Morocco
International audience Interannual variability of precipitation is a challenge for water management in semiarid Morocco, where droughts are common and take a heavy toll on agricultural production. The question of forecast potential for winter and spring rainfall is therefore crucial for the country....
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2018wr022984 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03346840/file/2018_WRR_Seasonal_Precipitation_Forecast_over_Morocco.pdf https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03346840 |
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fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:10670/1.uax58h 2023-05-15T17:31:47+02:00 Seasonal Precipitation Forecast Over Morocco Tuel, A. Eltahir, E. Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) 2018-11-01 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018wr022984 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03346840/file/2018_WRR_Seasonal_Precipitation_Forecast_over_Morocco.pdf https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03346840 en eng HAL CCSD American Geophysical Union hal-03346840 doi:10.1029/2018wr022984 10670/1.uax58h https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03346840/file/2018_WRR_Seasonal_Precipitation_Forecast_over_Morocco.pdf https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03346840 other Hyper Article en Ligne - Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société ISSN: 0043-1397 EISSN: 1944-7973 Water Resources Research Water Resources Research, American Geophysical Union, 2018, 54 (11), pp.9118 - 9130. ⟨10.1029/2018wr022984⟩ geo envir Journal Article https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_6501/ 2018 fttriple https://doi.org/10.1029/2018wr022984 2023-01-22T18:44:51Z International audience Interannual variability of precipitation is a challenge for water management in semiarid Morocco, where droughts are common and take a heavy toll on agricultural production. The question of forecast potential for winter and spring rainfall is therefore crucial for the country. As an addition to dynamical seasonal predictions, taking the case of the Oum Er Rbia watershed, the present study builds simple statistical forecasting models for Morocco's winter and spring precipitation, making use of oceanic forcing of atmospheric circulation. Previous results on the teleconnections between North Atlantic wintertime circulation and lagged ocean surface temperatures are confirmed. Based on a careful identification and selection of predictors, about 35-40% of interannual variability of precipitation may be robustly predictable with a lead time of 1 month. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Unknown Water Resources Research 54 11 9118 9130 |
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language |
English |
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geo envir |
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geo envir Tuel, A. Eltahir, E. Seasonal Precipitation Forecast Over Morocco |
topic_facet |
geo envir |
description |
International audience Interannual variability of precipitation is a challenge for water management in semiarid Morocco, where droughts are common and take a heavy toll on agricultural production. The question of forecast potential for winter and spring rainfall is therefore crucial for the country. As an addition to dynamical seasonal predictions, taking the case of the Oum Er Rbia watershed, the present study builds simple statistical forecasting models for Morocco's winter and spring precipitation, making use of oceanic forcing of atmospheric circulation. Previous results on the teleconnections between North Atlantic wintertime circulation and lagged ocean surface temperatures are confirmed. Based on a careful identification and selection of predictors, about 35-40% of interannual variability of precipitation may be robustly predictable with a lead time of 1 month. |
author2 |
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Tuel, A. Eltahir, E. |
author_facet |
Tuel, A. Eltahir, E. |
author_sort |
Tuel, A. |
title |
Seasonal Precipitation Forecast Over Morocco |
title_short |
Seasonal Precipitation Forecast Over Morocco |
title_full |
Seasonal Precipitation Forecast Over Morocco |
title_fullStr |
Seasonal Precipitation Forecast Over Morocco |
title_full_unstemmed |
Seasonal Precipitation Forecast Over Morocco |
title_sort |
seasonal precipitation forecast over morocco |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018wr022984 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03346840/file/2018_WRR_Seasonal_Precipitation_Forecast_over_Morocco.pdf https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03346840 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Hyper Article en Ligne - Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société ISSN: 0043-1397 EISSN: 1944-7973 Water Resources Research Water Resources Research, American Geophysical Union, 2018, 54 (11), pp.9118 - 9130. ⟨10.1029/2018wr022984⟩ |
op_relation |
hal-03346840 doi:10.1029/2018wr022984 10670/1.uax58h https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03346840/file/2018_WRR_Seasonal_Precipitation_Forecast_over_Morocco.pdf https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03346840 |
op_rights |
other |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018wr022984 |
container_title |
Water Resources Research |
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54 |
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11 |
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9118 |
op_container_end_page |
9130 |
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1766129543878279168 |