Is the southern crab Halicarcinus planatus (Fabricius, 1775) the next invader of Antarctica?

• Published in: Global Change Biology
• Main Authors: López‐Farrán, Zambra, Guillaumot, Charlène, Vargas‐Chacoff, Luis, Paschke, Kurt, Dulière, Valérie, Danis, Bruno, Poulin, Elie, Saucède, Thomas, Waters, Jonathan, Gérard, Karin
• Other Authors: Laboratorio de Ecología Molecular (LEM), Instituto de Ecología y Biodiversidad (IEB), Research Center Dynamics of High Latitude Marine Ecosystems (Fondap-IDEAL), Universidad Austral de Chile, Laboratorio de Ecología de Macroalgas Antárticas y Sub antárticas (LEMAS), Universidad de Magallanes (UMAG), Laboratoire de Biologie Marine (LBM), Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB), Biogéosciences UMR 6282 Dijon (BGS), Université de Bourgogne (UB)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Laboratorio de Fisiología de Peces, Universidad Austral de Chile- Instituto de Ciencias Marinas y Limnológicas, Instituto de Acuicultura, Royal Belgian Institute of Natural Sciences (RBINS), Otago Palaeogenetics Laboratory, University of Otago Dunedin, Nouvelle-Zélande, Centro de Investigación Gaia-Antártica, FONDECYT Regular 1161358; INAChDG 14-17;Chilean national doctoralscholarship CONICYT 21151192;Fondap-IDEAL15150003; PIA CONICYTACT172065; FONDECYT 1160877; ‘Fondspour la Formation à la Recherche dansl’Industrie et l’Agriculture’ (FRIA); ‘BourseFondation de la Mer’; Contribution Nº23to the ‘Refugia and Ecosystem Tolerancein the Southern Ocean’ project (RECTO;BR/154/A1/RECTO) funded by theBelgian Science Policy Office (BELSPO);IPEV program Nº1044 Proteker;Contribution Nº48 to the vERSO project(BELSPO, contract n°BR/132/A1/vERSO).
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2021
• Subjects: climate change; establishment; niche modelling; non-native species; reptant crab; Southern Ocean; survival; thermotolerance; geo; envir; Antarctic; Antarctic Peninsula; Deception Island; South Shetland Islands; Antarc*; Antarctica
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15674; https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03288942

International audience The potential for biological colonization of Antarctic shores is an increasingly important topic in the context of anthropogenic warming. Successful Antarctic invasions to date have been recorded exclusively from terrestrial habitats. While non-native marine species such as crabs, mussels and tunicates have already been reported from Antarctic coasts, none have as yet established there. Among the potential marine invaders of Antarctic shallow waters is Halicarcinus planatus (Fabricius, 1775), a crab with a circum-Subantarctic distribution and substantial larval dispersal capacity. An ovigerous female of this species was found in shallow waters of Deception Island, South Shetland Islands in 2010. A combination of physiological experiments and ecological modelling was used to assess the potential niche of H. planatus and estimate its future southward boundaries under climate change scenarios. We show that H. planatus has a minimum thermal limit of 1°C, and that its current distribution (assessed by sampling and niche modelling) is physiologically restricted to the Subantarctic region. While this species is presently unable to survive in Antarctica, future warming under both ‘strong mitigation’ and ‘no mitigation’ greenhouse gas emission scenarios will favour its niche expansion to the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) by 2100. Future human activity also has potential to increase the probability of anthropogenic translocation of this species into Antarctic ecosystems. 18 pages