Improved Decadal Predictions of North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre SST in CMIP6
International audience Due to its wide‐ranging impacts, predicting decadal variations of sea surface temperature (SST) in the subpolar North Atlantic remains a key goal of climate science. Here, we compare the representation of observed subpolar SST variations since 1960 in initialized and uninitial...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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HAL CCSD
2021
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl091307 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03167381/file/2020GL091307.pdf https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03167381 |
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openpolar |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Unknown |
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fttriple |
language |
English |
topic |
subpolar gyre climate prediction CMIP5 CMIP6 North Atlantic envir anthro-se |
spellingShingle |
subpolar gyre climate prediction CMIP5 CMIP6 North Atlantic envir anthro-se Borchert, Leonard Menary, Matthew, Swingedouw, Didier Sgubin, Giovanni Hermanson, Leon Mignot, Juliette Improved Decadal Predictions of North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre SST in CMIP6 |
topic_facet |
subpolar gyre climate prediction CMIP5 CMIP6 North Atlantic envir anthro-se |
description |
International audience Due to its wide‐ranging impacts, predicting decadal variations of sea surface temperature (SST) in the subpolar North Atlantic remains a key goal of climate science. Here, we compare the representation of observed subpolar SST variations since 1960 in initialized and uninitialized historical simulations from the 5th and 6th phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5/6). Initialized decadal hindcasts from CMIP6 explain 88% of observed SST variance post‐1980 in the subpolar gyre at lead years 5–7 (77% in uninitialized simulations) compared to 42% (8%) in CMIP5, indicating a more prominent role for forcing in driving observed subpolar SST changes than previously thought. Analysis of single‐forcing experiments suggests much of this correlation is due to natural forcing, explaining ∼55% of the observed variance. The amplitude of observed subpolar SST variations is underestimated in historical simulations and improved by initialization in CMIP6, indicating continued value of initialization for predicting North Atlantic SST. |
author2 |
Océan et variabilité du climat (VARCLIM) Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN) Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU) Environnements et Paléoenvironnements OCéaniques (EPOC) Observatoire aquitain des sciences de l'univers (OASU) Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) United Kingdom Met Office Exeter European Project: 776613,Fighting and adapting to climate change,H2020-EU.3.5.1,EUCP(2017) European Project: 789445,https://cordis.europa.eu/project/id/789445/reporting,EPICE(2018) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Borchert, Leonard Menary, Matthew, Swingedouw, Didier Sgubin, Giovanni Hermanson, Leon Mignot, Juliette |
author_facet |
Borchert, Leonard Menary, Matthew, Swingedouw, Didier Sgubin, Giovanni Hermanson, Leon Mignot, Juliette |
author_sort |
Borchert, Leonard |
title |
Improved Decadal Predictions of North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre SST in CMIP6 |
title_short |
Improved Decadal Predictions of North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre SST in CMIP6 |
title_full |
Improved Decadal Predictions of North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre SST in CMIP6 |
title_fullStr |
Improved Decadal Predictions of North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre SST in CMIP6 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Improved Decadal Predictions of North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre SST in CMIP6 |
title_sort |
improved decadal predictions of north atlantic subpolar gyre sst in cmip6 |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl091307 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03167381/file/2020GL091307.pdf https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03167381 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Hyper Article en Ligne - Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société ISSN: 0094-8276 EISSN: 1944-8007 Geophysical Research Letters Geophysical Research Letters, American Geophysical Union, 2021, 48 (3), pp.e2020GL091307. ⟨10.1029/2020gl091307⟩ |
op_relation |
hal-03167381 doi:10.1029/2020gl091307 IRD: fdi:010080998 WOS: 000620058900008 10670/1.sfhq4r https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03167381/file/2020GL091307.pdf https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03167381 |
op_rights |
other |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl091307 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
48 |
container_issue |
3 |
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1766118558720327680 |
spelling |
fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:10670/1.sfhq4r 2023-05-15T17:26:46+02:00 Improved Decadal Predictions of North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre SST in CMIP6 Borchert, Leonard Menary, Matthew, Swingedouw, Didier Sgubin, Giovanni Hermanson, Leon Mignot, Juliette Océan et variabilité du climat (VARCLIM) Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN) Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU) Environnements et Paléoenvironnements OCéaniques (EPOC) Observatoire aquitain des sciences de l'univers (OASU) Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) United Kingdom Met Office Exeter European Project: 776613,Fighting and adapting to climate change,H2020-EU.3.5.1,EUCP(2017) European Project: 789445,https://cordis.europa.eu/project/id/789445/reporting,EPICE(2018) 2021-01-28 https://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl091307 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03167381/file/2020GL091307.pdf https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03167381 en eng HAL CCSD American Geophysical Union hal-03167381 doi:10.1029/2020gl091307 IRD: fdi:010080998 WOS: 000620058900008 10670/1.sfhq4r https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03167381/file/2020GL091307.pdf https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03167381 other Hyper Article en Ligne - Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société ISSN: 0094-8276 EISSN: 1944-8007 Geophysical Research Letters Geophysical Research Letters, American Geophysical Union, 2021, 48 (3), pp.e2020GL091307. ⟨10.1029/2020gl091307⟩ subpolar gyre climate prediction CMIP5 CMIP6 North Atlantic envir anthro-se Journal Article https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_6501/ 2021 fttriple https://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl091307 2023-01-22T17:06:38Z International audience Due to its wide‐ranging impacts, predicting decadal variations of sea surface temperature (SST) in the subpolar North Atlantic remains a key goal of climate science. Here, we compare the representation of observed subpolar SST variations since 1960 in initialized and uninitialized historical simulations from the 5th and 6th phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5/6). Initialized decadal hindcasts from CMIP6 explain 88% of observed SST variance post‐1980 in the subpolar gyre at lead years 5–7 (77% in uninitialized simulations) compared to 42% (8%) in CMIP5, indicating a more prominent role for forcing in driving observed subpolar SST changes than previously thought. Analysis of single‐forcing experiments suggests much of this correlation is due to natural forcing, explaining ∼55% of the observed variance. The amplitude of observed subpolar SST variations is underestimated in historical simulations and improved by initialization in CMIP6, indicating continued value of initialization for predicting North Atlantic SST. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Unknown Geophysical Research Letters 48 3 |