Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wild␣re: an expert assessment

• Published in: Environmental Research Letters
• Main Authors: Abbott, Benjamin W., Jones, Jeremy, Schuur, Edward, Chapin, F. Stuart, Bowden, William, Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia, Epstein, Howard, Flannigan, Michael, Harms, Tamara K., Hollingsworth, Teresa, Mack, Michelle, Mcguire, A. David, Natali, Susan M., Rocha, Adrian, Tank, Suzanne E., Turetsky, Merritt R., Vonk, Jorien E., Wickland, Kimberly P., Aiken, George, Alexander, Heather, Amon, Rainer M.W., Benscoter, Brian, Bergeron, Yves, Bishop, Kevin, Blarquez, Olivier, Bond-Lamberty, Ben, Breen, Amy, Buffam, Ishi, Cai, Yihua, Carcaillet, Christopher, Carey, Sean K., Chen, Jing M., Chen, Han Y.H., Christensen, Torben R., Cooper, Lee W., Cornelissen, J. Hans C., de Groot, William J., DeLuca, Thomas H., Dorrepaal, Ellen, Fetcher, Ned, Finlay, Jacques C., Forbes, Bruce C., French, Nancy H.F., Gauthier, Sylvie, Girardin, Martin P., Goetz, Scott, Goldammer, Johann G., Gough, Laura, Grogan, Paul, Guo, Laodong
• Other Authors: Institute of Arctic Biology and Department of Biology & Wildlife, University of Alaska Fairbanks (UAF), Ecosystèmes, biodiversité, évolution Rennes (ECOBIO), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Rennes (OSUR)-Institut Ecologie et Environnement (INEE), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Rennes 1 (UR1), Université de Rennes (UNIV-RENNES)-Université de Rennes (UNIV-RENNES), Laboratoire d'Ecologie des Hydrosystèmes Naturels et Anthropisés (LEHNA), Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL), Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État (ENTPE)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), McMaster University Hamilton, Ontario, 955713, National Science Foundation, OPP-0806394, Office of Polar Programs, Future Forest (Mistra), SITES (Swedish Science Foundation), TOMCAR-Permafrost #277059, Marie Curie International Reintegration
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2016
• Subjects: boreal; wildfire; Arctic; permafrost carbon; particulate organic carbon; dissolved organic carbon; coastal erosion Supplementary material for this article is available; envir; geo; Climate change; permafrost
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014; https://hal-sde.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01288782/file/2016_Abott_Enviro%20Res%20Lett_1.pdf; https://hal-sde.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01288782

International audience As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wild␣re, and hydrologic carbon ␣ux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identi␣ed water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous ␣ndings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%–85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced. CT3 EnjS4