Greenhouse gases modulate the strength of millennial-scale subtropical rainfall, consistent with future predictions
Millennial-scale East Asian monsoon variability is closely associated with natural hazards through long-term variability in flood and drought cycles. Therefore, exploring what drives the millennial-scale variability is of significant importance for future prediction of extreme climates. Here we pres...
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fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:10670/1.oixiyd 2023-05-15T17:33:02+02:00 Greenhouse gases modulate the strength of millennial-scale subtropical rainfall, consistent with future predictions Guo, Fei Clemens, Steven Liu, Yuming Wang, Ting Fan, Huimin Liu, Xingxing Sun, Youbin 2022-01-17 https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-188 https://cp.copernicus.org/preprints/cp-2021-188/ en eng doi:10.5194/cp-2021-188 10670/1.oixiyd https://cp.copernicus.org/preprints/cp-2021-188/ undefined Geographica Helvetica - geography eISSN: 1814-9332 envir geo Text https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_18cf/ 2022 fttriple https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-188 2023-01-22T17:06:07Z Millennial-scale East Asian monsoon variability is closely associated with natural hazards through long-term variability in flood and drought cycles. Therefore, exploring what drives the millennial-scale variability is of significant importance for future prediction of extreme climates. Here we present a new East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall reconstruction from the northwest Chinese loess plateau spanning the past 650 kyr. The magnitude of millennial-scale variability (MMV) in EASM rainfall is linked to ice volume and greenhouse gas (GHG) at the 100-kyr earth-orbital eccentricity band and to GHG and summer insolation at the precession band. At the glacial-interglacial cycle, gradual changes in CO2 at times of intermediate ice volume leads to increased variability in North Atlantic stratification and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, propagating abrupt climate changes into East Asia via the westerlies. Within the 100-kyr cycle precession variability further enhances the response, showing that stronger insolation and increased atmospheric GHG cause increases in the MMV of EASM rainfall. These findings indicate increased extreme precipitation events under future warming scenarios, consistent with model results. Text North Atlantic Unknown |
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envir geo Guo, Fei Clemens, Steven Liu, Yuming Wang, Ting Fan, Huimin Liu, Xingxing Sun, Youbin Greenhouse gases modulate the strength of millennial-scale subtropical rainfall, consistent with future predictions |
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Millennial-scale East Asian monsoon variability is closely associated with natural hazards through long-term variability in flood and drought cycles. Therefore, exploring what drives the millennial-scale variability is of significant importance for future prediction of extreme climates. Here we present a new East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall reconstruction from the northwest Chinese loess plateau spanning the past 650 kyr. The magnitude of millennial-scale variability (MMV) in EASM rainfall is linked to ice volume and greenhouse gas (GHG) at the 100-kyr earth-orbital eccentricity band and to GHG and summer insolation at the precession band. At the glacial-interglacial cycle, gradual changes in CO2 at times of intermediate ice volume leads to increased variability in North Atlantic stratification and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, propagating abrupt climate changes into East Asia via the westerlies. Within the 100-kyr cycle precession variability further enhances the response, showing that stronger insolation and increased atmospheric GHG cause increases in the MMV of EASM rainfall. These findings indicate increased extreme precipitation events under future warming scenarios, consistent with model results. |
format |
Text |
author |
Guo, Fei Clemens, Steven Liu, Yuming Wang, Ting Fan, Huimin Liu, Xingxing Sun, Youbin |
author_facet |
Guo, Fei Clemens, Steven Liu, Yuming Wang, Ting Fan, Huimin Liu, Xingxing Sun, Youbin |
author_sort |
Guo, Fei |
title |
Greenhouse gases modulate the strength of millennial-scale subtropical rainfall, consistent with future predictions |
title_short |
Greenhouse gases modulate the strength of millennial-scale subtropical rainfall, consistent with future predictions |
title_full |
Greenhouse gases modulate the strength of millennial-scale subtropical rainfall, consistent with future predictions |
title_fullStr |
Greenhouse gases modulate the strength of millennial-scale subtropical rainfall, consistent with future predictions |
title_full_unstemmed |
Greenhouse gases modulate the strength of millennial-scale subtropical rainfall, consistent with future predictions |
title_sort |
greenhouse gases modulate the strength of millennial-scale subtropical rainfall, consistent with future predictions |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-188 https://cp.copernicus.org/preprints/cp-2021-188/ |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Geographica Helvetica - geography eISSN: 1814-9332 |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/cp-2021-188 10670/1.oixiyd https://cp.copernicus.org/preprints/cp-2021-188/ |
op_rights |
undefined |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-188 |
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1766131396415324160 |