Optimal Combination of Arctic Sea Ice Extent Measures: A Dynamic Factor Modeling Approach
The diminishing extent of Arctic sea ice is a key indicator of climate change as well as an accelerant for future global warming. Since 1978, Arctic sea ice has been measured using satellite-based microwave sensing; however, different measures of Arctic sea ice extent have been made available based...
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fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:10670/1.o61lk6 2023-05-15T14:34:20+02:00 Optimal Combination of Arctic Sea Ice Extent Measures: A Dynamic Factor Modeling Approach Diebold, Francis X. Göbel, Maximilian Coulombe, Philippe Goulet Rudebusch, Glenn D. Zhang, Boyuan 2020-03-31 http://arxiv.org/abs/2003.14276 en eng 10670/1.o61lk6 http://arxiv.org/abs/2003.14276 undefined arXiv geo envir Text https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_18cf/ 2020 fttriple 2023-01-22T17:55:45Z The diminishing extent of Arctic sea ice is a key indicator of climate change as well as an accelerant for future global warming. Since 1978, Arctic sea ice has been measured using satellite-based microwave sensing; however, different measures of Arctic sea ice extent have been made available based on differing algorithmic transformations of the raw satellite data. We propose and estimate a dynamic factor model that combines four of these measures in an optimal way that accounts for their differing volatility and cross-correlations. We then use the Kalman smoother to extract an optimal combined measure of Arctic sea ice extent. It turns out that almost all weight is put on the NSIDC Sea Ice Index, confirming and enhancing confidence in the Sea Ice Index and the NASA Team algorithm on which it is based. Text Arctic Climate change Global warming Sea ice Unknown Arctic |
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geo envir Diebold, Francis X. Göbel, Maximilian Coulombe, Philippe Goulet Rudebusch, Glenn D. Zhang, Boyuan Optimal Combination of Arctic Sea Ice Extent Measures: A Dynamic Factor Modeling Approach |
topic_facet |
geo envir |
description |
The diminishing extent of Arctic sea ice is a key indicator of climate change as well as an accelerant for future global warming. Since 1978, Arctic sea ice has been measured using satellite-based microwave sensing; however, different measures of Arctic sea ice extent have been made available based on differing algorithmic transformations of the raw satellite data. We propose and estimate a dynamic factor model that combines four of these measures in an optimal way that accounts for their differing volatility and cross-correlations. We then use the Kalman smoother to extract an optimal combined measure of Arctic sea ice extent. It turns out that almost all weight is put on the NSIDC Sea Ice Index, confirming and enhancing confidence in the Sea Ice Index and the NASA Team algorithm on which it is based. |
format |
Text |
author |
Diebold, Francis X. Göbel, Maximilian Coulombe, Philippe Goulet Rudebusch, Glenn D. Zhang, Boyuan |
author_facet |
Diebold, Francis X. Göbel, Maximilian Coulombe, Philippe Goulet Rudebusch, Glenn D. Zhang, Boyuan |
author_sort |
Diebold, Francis X. |
title |
Optimal Combination of Arctic Sea Ice Extent Measures: A Dynamic Factor Modeling Approach |
title_short |
Optimal Combination of Arctic Sea Ice Extent Measures: A Dynamic Factor Modeling Approach |
title_full |
Optimal Combination of Arctic Sea Ice Extent Measures: A Dynamic Factor Modeling Approach |
title_fullStr |
Optimal Combination of Arctic Sea Ice Extent Measures: A Dynamic Factor Modeling Approach |
title_full_unstemmed |
Optimal Combination of Arctic Sea Ice Extent Measures: A Dynamic Factor Modeling Approach |
title_sort |
optimal combination of arctic sea ice extent measures: a dynamic factor modeling approach |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://arxiv.org/abs/2003.14276 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Global warming Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Global warming Sea ice |
op_source |
arXiv |
op_relation |
10670/1.o61lk6 http://arxiv.org/abs/2003.14276 |
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1766307390566694912 |