Response of an arctic predator guild to collapsing lemming cycles.

• Published in: Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
• Main Authors: Schmidt, Niels Martin, Ims, Rolf A., Høye, Toke T., Gilg, Olivier, Hansen, Lars H., Hansen, Jannik, Lund, Magnus, Fuglei, Eva, Forchhammer, Mads C., Sittler, Benoit
• Other Authors: Arctic Research Centre, Aarhus University Aarhus, Department of Bioscience Roskilde, Department of Arctic and Marine Biology, University of Tromsø (UiT), Department of Bioscience, Biogéosciences UMR 6282 Dijon (BGS), Université de Bourgogne (UB)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), FRAM Centre, Norwegian Polar Institute, Greenland Climate Research Centre, Greenland Institute for Natural Resources (GINR), Institut für Landespflege, University of Freiburg Freiburg
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2012
• Subjects: Arctic; cyclic population dynamics; Dicrostonyx groenlandicus; predator-prey interaction; climate change; envir; geo; Greenland; Arctic Fox; Arctic Lemming; Climate change; Long-tailed Skua; snowy owl; Tundra
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2012.1490; https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00739094

International audience Alpine and arctic lemming populations appear to be highly sensitive to climate change, and when faced with warmer and shorter winters, their well-known high-amplitude population cycles may collapse. Being keystone species in tundra ecosystems, changed lemming dynamics may convey significant knock-on effects on trophically linked species. Here, we analyse long-term (1988-2010), community-wide monitoring data from two sites in high-arctic Greenland and document how a collapse in collared lemming cyclicity affects the population dynamics of the predator guild. Dramatic changes were observed in two highly specialized lemming predators: snowy owl and stoat. Following the lemming cycle collapse, snowy owl fledgling production declined by 98 per cent, and there was indication of a severe population decline of stoats at one site. The less specialized long-tailed skua and the generalist arctic fox were more loosely coupled to the lemming dynamics. Still, the lemming collapse had noticeable effects on their reproductive performance. Predator responses differed somewhat between sites in all species and could arise from site-specific differences in lemming dynamics, intra-guild interactions or subsidies from other resources. Nevertheless, population extinctions and community restructuring of this arctic endemic predator guild are likely if the lemming dynamics are maintained at the current non-cyclic, low-density state. 6 pages