Trends and variability in extreme precipitation indices over Maghreb countries
International audience Maghreb countries are highly vulnerable to extreme hydrological events, such as floods and droughts, driven by the strong variability of precipitation. While several studies have analyzed the presence of trends in precipitation records for the Euro-Mediterranean basin, this st...
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fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:10670/1.kf1fsi 2023-05-15T17:34:37+02:00 Trends and variability in extreme precipitation indices over Maghreb countries Tramblay, Yves El Adlouni, S. Servat, Éric Hydrosciences Montpellier (HSM) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Montpellier 2 - Sciences et Techniques (UM2)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) The publication of this article is financed by CNRS-INSU. 2013-01-01 https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-3235-2013 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02414975/file/nhess-13-3235-2013.pdf https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02414975 en eng HAL CCSD Copernicus Publ. / European Geosciences Union hal-02414975 doi:10.5194/nhess-13-3235-2013 IRD: fdi:010061447 10670/1.kf1fsi https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02414975/file/nhess-13-3235-2013.pdf https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02414975 lic_creative-commons other Hyper Article en Ligne - Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société ISSN: 1561-8633 EISSN: 1684-9981 Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Copernicus Publ. / European Geosciences Union, 2013, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 13 (12), pp.3235-3248. ⟨10.5194/nhess-13-3235-2013⟩ MAGHREB geo envir Journal Article https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_6501/ 2013 fttriple https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-3235-2013 2023-01-22T18:40:14Z International audience Maghreb countries are highly vulnerable to extreme hydrological events, such as floods and droughts, driven by the strong variability of precipitation. While several studies have analyzed the presence of trends in precipitation records for the Euro-Mediterranean basin, this study provides a regional assessment of trends on its southernmost shores. A database of 22 stations located in Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia with between 33 and 59 yr of daily precipitation records is considered. The change points and trends are analyzed for eleven climate indices, describing several features of the precipitation regime. The issue of conducting multiple hypothesis tests is addressed through the implementation of a false discovery rate procedure. The spatial and interannual variability of the precipitation indices at the different stations are analyzed and compared with large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns, including the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), western Mediterranean Oscillation (WEMO), Mediterranean Oscillation (MO) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Results show a strong tendency towards a decrease of precipitation totals and wet days together with an increase in the duration of dry periods, mainly for Morocco and western Algeria. On the other hand, only a few significant trends are detected for heavy precipitation indices. The NAO and MO patterns are well correlated with precipitation indices describing precipitation amounts, the number of dry days and the length of wet and dry periods, whereas heavy precipitation indices exhibit a strong spatial variability and are only moderately correlated with large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Unknown Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 13 12 3235 3248 |
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MAGHREB geo envir Tramblay, Yves El Adlouni, S. Servat, Éric Trends and variability in extreme precipitation indices over Maghreb countries |
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MAGHREB geo envir |
description |
International audience Maghreb countries are highly vulnerable to extreme hydrological events, such as floods and droughts, driven by the strong variability of precipitation. While several studies have analyzed the presence of trends in precipitation records for the Euro-Mediterranean basin, this study provides a regional assessment of trends on its southernmost shores. A database of 22 stations located in Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia with between 33 and 59 yr of daily precipitation records is considered. The change points and trends are analyzed for eleven climate indices, describing several features of the precipitation regime. The issue of conducting multiple hypothesis tests is addressed through the implementation of a false discovery rate procedure. The spatial and interannual variability of the precipitation indices at the different stations are analyzed and compared with large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns, including the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), western Mediterranean Oscillation (WEMO), Mediterranean Oscillation (MO) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Results show a strong tendency towards a decrease of precipitation totals and wet days together with an increase in the duration of dry periods, mainly for Morocco and western Algeria. On the other hand, only a few significant trends are detected for heavy precipitation indices. The NAO and MO patterns are well correlated with precipitation indices describing precipitation amounts, the number of dry days and the length of wet and dry periods, whereas heavy precipitation indices exhibit a strong spatial variability and are only moderately correlated with large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. |
author2 |
Hydrosciences Montpellier (HSM) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Montpellier 2 - Sciences et Techniques (UM2)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) The publication of this article is financed by CNRS-INSU. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Tramblay, Yves El Adlouni, S. Servat, Éric |
author_facet |
Tramblay, Yves El Adlouni, S. Servat, Éric |
author_sort |
Tramblay, Yves |
title |
Trends and variability in extreme precipitation indices over Maghreb countries |
title_short |
Trends and variability in extreme precipitation indices over Maghreb countries |
title_full |
Trends and variability in extreme precipitation indices over Maghreb countries |
title_fullStr |
Trends and variability in extreme precipitation indices over Maghreb countries |
title_full_unstemmed |
Trends and variability in extreme precipitation indices over Maghreb countries |
title_sort |
trends and variability in extreme precipitation indices over maghreb countries |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-3235-2013 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02414975/file/nhess-13-3235-2013.pdf https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02414975 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Hyper Article en Ligne - Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société ISSN: 1561-8633 EISSN: 1684-9981 Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Copernicus Publ. / European Geosciences Union, 2013, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 13 (12), pp.3235-3248. ⟨10.5194/nhess-13-3235-2013⟩ |
op_relation |
hal-02414975 doi:10.5194/nhess-13-3235-2013 IRD: fdi:010061447 10670/1.kf1fsi https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02414975/file/nhess-13-3235-2013.pdf https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02414975 |
op_rights |
lic_creative-commons other |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-3235-2013 |
container_title |
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
container_volume |
13 |
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12 |
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3235 |
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3248 |
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