Foreign inflows, banking hypertrophia and dutch disease in small open economies

• Main Author: Bou habib, Chadi
• Other Authors: Lyon 2, Goux, Jean-François
• Format: Thesis
• Language: French
• Published: 2012
• Subjects: Appréciation réelle; Contraintes de liquidité; Échangeable(s); Élasticité de substitution; Fonction ESC; Intensité capitalistique; Intermédiation bancaire; Modèle à facteur spécifique; Modèle en proportions de facteurs; Mouvement des facteurs; Non-échangeables(s); Politique(s) de la monnaie et du crédit; Politique(s) fiscale(s); Politique(s) structurelle(s); Revenu permanent; Real appreciation; Liquidity constraints; Traded; Elasticity of substitution; CES production function; Capital intensity; Banking intermediation; Specific factors model; Factors proportions model; Resources movement; Non-traded; Policies of money and credit; Fiscal policies; Structural policies; Permanent income; eco; demo; Iceland
• Online Access: http://www.theses.fr/2012LYO22014/document

Foreign financial inflows have developed quickly in the past 40 years. These inflows have increased the ability of the banking sector to further finance domestic demand. The transformation of foreign financial inflows into an income and demand shock generates Dutch Disease adjustments; with change in relative prices and adjustments in the productive system, resources movement, and change in the absolute and relative remunerations of factors of production. The phenomenon is of great importance in the case of small open economies that are price takers in the international market and exposed to exogenous shocks. We conceptualize the transmission of the shock and the adjustments over different time horizons for an economy composed of two sectors; one producing traded goods and the other producing non-traded goods. This economy is endowed with two factors of production, labor and capital, substitutable and mobile as time elapses. We experiment this conceptual framework in the cases of Lebanon, Luxemburg, and Iceland; the three economies having large banking sectors and benefiting from large foreign financial inflows prior to the 2008 crisis. We find that the direction and intensity of adjustments over the medium term depend on the differential of capital intensity between sectors. Over the longer term, the supply of factors of production would change. We also simulate the impact of policy choices, with focus on reserves policies, policies of money and credit, fiscal policies, and structural policies. The combination of measures leads to better results without putting the burden of the mitigation of adjustments on one single policy instrument. Les flux financiers internationaux ont connu un développement accéléré au cours des quatre dernières décennies, et le rôle du secteur bancaire dans la transformation de ces flux en moyens de financer la demande s’est accru. Or le passage d’un choc de flux, à un choc de revenu, puis à un choc de demande, génère des ajustements de type «Syndrome Hollandais»; avec variation des ...