Modelling population dynamics of seabirds: importance of the effects of climate fluctuations on breeding proportions
International audience Environmental factors and their interactions are likely to have shaped specific breeding and survival strategies in top predators. Understanding how climatic factors affect populations requires detailed investigation of the demographic parameters and population modelling. Here...
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fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:10670/1.7c2bdq 2023-05-15T13:59:59+02:00 Modelling population dynamics of seabirds: importance of the effects of climate fluctuations on breeding proportions Barbraud, Christophe Jenouvrier, Stéphanie Weimerskirch, Henri Cazelles, Bernard Centre d'études biologiques de Chizé (CEBC) Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) 2005-01-01 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00188212 en eng HAL CCSD Nordic Ecological Society hal-00188212 10670/1.7c2bdq https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00188212 undefined Hyper Article en Ligne - Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société ISSN: 0030-1299 EISSN: 1600-0706 Oikos Oikos, Nordic Ecological Society, 2005, 108, pp.511-522 geo envir Journal Article https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_6501/ 2005 fttriple 2023-01-22T16:45:29Z International audience Environmental factors and their interactions are likely to have shaped specific breeding and survival strategies in top predators. Understanding how climatic factors affect populations requires detailed investigation of the demographic parameters and population modelling. Here, we focus on the modelling of a southern fulmar population over a 39 year period in Terre Ade´lie, Antarctica, using Leslie matrix models to understand from a prospective and retrospective point of view, how vital rates and their variations, affect the cyclic population dynamics. The elasticity of population growth rate to adult survival was very high (0.95), as predicted by a slow/fast continuum in avian life histories. However, adult survival varied little between years (mean9/SD: 0.929/0.07), and could not explain the strong fluctuations observed in the number of breeders and chicks. The high temporal fluctuations of the proportion of breeders (0.579/0.22) and breeding success (0.709/0.14) had the strongest impact on population dynamics, despite their weak elasticities (0.05). Before the 1980s, population fluctuations were mainly explained by a direct impact of sea-ice extent (SIE) anomalies during summer (by a threshold effect) on the proportion of breeders. After 1980s, 3 years periodic population fluctuations were best predicted by 3 years cyclic variations in the proportion of breeders. SIE showed a marked change of periodicity during the 1980s, and SIE during winter fluctuated with a 3 years periodicity during 1980/1995. The marked change in population dynamics, through a change of the variations of the proportion of breeders, may be explained in the light of a regime shift that probably occurred around the 1980s, and which affected the sea ice environment, the availability of prey, and thus the demographic parameters and population dynamics of southern fulmars. 12 pages Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctica Sea ice Unknown Fulmar ENVELOPE(-46.016,-46.016,-60.616,-60.616) |
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language |
English |
topic |
geo envir |
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geo envir Barbraud, Christophe Jenouvrier, Stéphanie Weimerskirch, Henri Cazelles, Bernard Modelling population dynamics of seabirds: importance of the effects of climate fluctuations on breeding proportions |
topic_facet |
geo envir |
description |
International audience Environmental factors and their interactions are likely to have shaped specific breeding and survival strategies in top predators. Understanding how climatic factors affect populations requires detailed investigation of the demographic parameters and population modelling. Here, we focus on the modelling of a southern fulmar population over a 39 year period in Terre Ade´lie, Antarctica, using Leslie matrix models to understand from a prospective and retrospective point of view, how vital rates and their variations, affect the cyclic population dynamics. The elasticity of population growth rate to adult survival was very high (0.95), as predicted by a slow/fast continuum in avian life histories. However, adult survival varied little between years (mean9/SD: 0.929/0.07), and could not explain the strong fluctuations observed in the number of breeders and chicks. The high temporal fluctuations of the proportion of breeders (0.579/0.22) and breeding success (0.709/0.14) had the strongest impact on population dynamics, despite their weak elasticities (0.05). Before the 1980s, population fluctuations were mainly explained by a direct impact of sea-ice extent (SIE) anomalies during summer (by a threshold effect) on the proportion of breeders. After 1980s, 3 years periodic population fluctuations were best predicted by 3 years cyclic variations in the proportion of breeders. SIE showed a marked change of periodicity during the 1980s, and SIE during winter fluctuated with a 3 years periodicity during 1980/1995. The marked change in population dynamics, through a change of the variations of the proportion of breeders, may be explained in the light of a regime shift that probably occurred around the 1980s, and which affected the sea ice environment, the availability of prey, and thus the demographic parameters and population dynamics of southern fulmars. 12 pages |
author2 |
Centre d'études biologiques de Chizé (CEBC) Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Barbraud, Christophe Jenouvrier, Stéphanie Weimerskirch, Henri Cazelles, Bernard |
author_facet |
Barbraud, Christophe Jenouvrier, Stéphanie Weimerskirch, Henri Cazelles, Bernard |
author_sort |
Barbraud, Christophe |
title |
Modelling population dynamics of seabirds: importance of the effects of climate fluctuations on breeding proportions |
title_short |
Modelling population dynamics of seabirds: importance of the effects of climate fluctuations on breeding proportions |
title_full |
Modelling population dynamics of seabirds: importance of the effects of climate fluctuations on breeding proportions |
title_fullStr |
Modelling population dynamics of seabirds: importance of the effects of climate fluctuations on breeding proportions |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modelling population dynamics of seabirds: importance of the effects of climate fluctuations on breeding proportions |
title_sort |
modelling population dynamics of seabirds: importance of the effects of climate fluctuations on breeding proportions |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2005 |
url |
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00188212 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-46.016,-46.016,-60.616,-60.616) |
geographic |
Fulmar |
geographic_facet |
Fulmar |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctica Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctica Sea ice |
op_source |
Hyper Article en Ligne - Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société ISSN: 0030-1299 EISSN: 1600-0706 Oikos Oikos, Nordic Ecological Society, 2005, 108, pp.511-522 |
op_relation |
hal-00188212 10670/1.7c2bdq https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00188212 |
op_rights |
undefined |
_version_ |
1766268906145579008 |