Future Arctic Primary Productivity from CMIP5 Simulations: Uncertain Outcome, but Consistent Mechanisms
International audience Net primary production (PP) in the Arctic should increase over this century, due to sea ice retreat, inducing an increase in available light, but could decrease if nitrate renewal is insufficient. Here, simulations performed with 11 Earth System Models from the CMIP5 exercise,...
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2013
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Online Access: | https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00833027 |
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envir geo Vancoppenolle, Martin Bopp, Laurent Madec, Gurvan Dunne, John Ilyina, Tatiana Halloran, Paul R. Steiner, Nadja Future Arctic Primary Productivity from CMIP5 Simulations: Uncertain Outcome, but Consistent Mechanisms |
topic_facet |
envir geo |
description |
International audience Net primary production (PP) in the Arctic should increase over this century, due to sea ice retreat, inducing an increase in available light, but could decrease if nitrate renewal is insufficient. Here, simulations performed with 11 Earth System Models from the CMIP5 exercise, covering 1900-2100, are analyzed using Arctic PP, surface nitrate and sea ice concentrations. Whereas the mean model well simulates Arctic-integrated PP at 511 TgC/yr for 1998-2005 and projects a 58 TgC/yr increase by 2080-2099, models neither agree on what limits PP today, nor on the sign of future PP change. However, the same mechanisms operate in all models. First, both sea ice and nitrate decrease over the 21st century. Depending on the model, the strengthening nitrate stress is sufficient to overcome the effect of light increase. The inter-model spread stems from present nitrate stocks, poorly constrained by observations and characterized by an inter-model uncertainty of >50% of the mean. Second, virtually all models agree in the open ocean zones on more spatially-integrated PP and less PP per unit area. Where models disagree is the sea ice zone, where a subtle balance between light and nutrient limitations determines the change in productivity. Hence, it is argued that reducing uncertainty on present Arctic nitrate would render Arctic PP projections much more consistent. That is definitely required to understand the impact of climate change on the Arctic food webs and carbon cycle. |
author2 |
Couplage physique-biogéochimie-carbone (PHYBIOCAR) Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ) |
format |
Other/Unknown Material |
author |
Vancoppenolle, Martin Bopp, Laurent Madec, Gurvan Dunne, John Ilyina, Tatiana Halloran, Paul R. Steiner, Nadja |
author_facet |
Vancoppenolle, Martin Bopp, Laurent Madec, Gurvan Dunne, John Ilyina, Tatiana Halloran, Paul R. Steiner, Nadja |
author_sort |
Vancoppenolle, Martin |
title |
Future Arctic Primary Productivity from CMIP5 Simulations: Uncertain Outcome, but Consistent Mechanisms |
title_short |
Future Arctic Primary Productivity from CMIP5 Simulations: Uncertain Outcome, but Consistent Mechanisms |
title_full |
Future Arctic Primary Productivity from CMIP5 Simulations: Uncertain Outcome, but Consistent Mechanisms |
title_fullStr |
Future Arctic Primary Productivity from CMIP5 Simulations: Uncertain Outcome, but Consistent Mechanisms |
title_full_unstemmed |
Future Arctic Primary Productivity from CMIP5 Simulations: Uncertain Outcome, but Consistent Mechanisms |
title_sort |
future arctic primary productivity from cmip5 simulations: uncertain outcome, but consistent mechanisms |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00833027 |
op_coverage |
Vienne, Austria |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Sea ice |
op_source |
Hyper Article en Ligne - Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société EGU General Assembly 2013 EGU General Assembly 2013, Apr 2013, Vienne, Austria. pp.9229 |
op_relation |
hal-00833027 BIBCODE: 2013EGUGA.15.9229V 10670/1.5cahh4 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00833027 |
op_rights |
undefined |
_version_ |
1766308734991073280 |
spelling |
fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:10670/1.5cahh4 2023-05-15T14:36:01+02:00 Future Arctic Primary Productivity from CMIP5 Simulations: Uncertain Outcome, but Consistent Mechanisms Vancoppenolle, Martin Bopp, Laurent Madec, Gurvan Dunne, John Ilyina, Tatiana Halloran, Paul R. Steiner, Nadja Couplage physique-biogéochimie-carbone (PHYBIOCAR) Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ) Vienne, Austria 2013-04-07 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00833027 en eng HAL CCSD hal-00833027 BIBCODE: 2013EGUGA.15.9229V 10670/1.5cahh4 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00833027 undefined Hyper Article en Ligne - Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société EGU General Assembly 2013 EGU General Assembly 2013, Apr 2013, Vienne, Austria. pp.9229 envir geo Conference Output https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_c94f/ 2013 fttriple 2023-01-22T17:24:34Z International audience Net primary production (PP) in the Arctic should increase over this century, due to sea ice retreat, inducing an increase in available light, but could decrease if nitrate renewal is insufficient. Here, simulations performed with 11 Earth System Models from the CMIP5 exercise, covering 1900-2100, are analyzed using Arctic PP, surface nitrate and sea ice concentrations. Whereas the mean model well simulates Arctic-integrated PP at 511 TgC/yr for 1998-2005 and projects a 58 TgC/yr increase by 2080-2099, models neither agree on what limits PP today, nor on the sign of future PP change. However, the same mechanisms operate in all models. First, both sea ice and nitrate decrease over the 21st century. Depending on the model, the strengthening nitrate stress is sufficient to overcome the effect of light increase. The inter-model spread stems from present nitrate stocks, poorly constrained by observations and characterized by an inter-model uncertainty of >50% of the mean. Second, virtually all models agree in the open ocean zones on more spatially-integrated PP and less PP per unit area. Where models disagree is the sea ice zone, where a subtle balance between light and nutrient limitations determines the change in productivity. Hence, it is argued that reducing uncertainty on present Arctic nitrate would render Arctic PP projections much more consistent. That is definitely required to understand the impact of climate change on the Arctic food webs and carbon cycle. Other/Unknown Material Arctic Climate change Sea ice Unknown Arctic |