Relative contributions of different weather systems to the changes in annual mean and extreme precipitation in CMIP5 models
Future changes in precipitations due to climate change are of great concern to society. Changes in the precipitation is expected to be caused by the changes in various weather systems (e.g., tropical cyclones). However, questions such as “Which weather systems will cause which changes?” and “Is the...
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fttokyotech:oai:t2r2.star.titech.ac.jp:50376975 2023-07-30T04:05:32+02:00 Relative contributions of different weather systems to the changes in annual mean and extreme precipitation in CMIP5 models 内海 信幸 Utsumi Nobuyuki 金 炯俊 Hyungjun KIM 鼎信次郎 Shinjiro Kanae 沖大幹 Taikan Oki 2017-07-10 http://t2r2.star.titech.ac.jp/cgi-bin/publicationinfo.cgi?q_publication_content_number=CTT100746477 eng eng http://t2r2.star.titech.ac.jp/cgi-bin/publicationinfo.cgi?q_publication_content_number=CTT100746477 oai:t2r2.star.titech.ac.jp:50376975 Conference Paper 2017 fttokyotech 2023-07-10T23:07:50Z Future changes in precipitations due to climate change are of great concern to society. Changes in the precipitation is expected to be caused by the changes in various weather systems (e.g., tropical cyclones). However, questions such as “Which weather systems will cause which changes?” and “Is the relative importance of these weather systems likely to change in the future?” have not been addressed fully yet. Here, we present the global estimates of the relative contributions of different weather systems (i.e., tropical cyclones, extratropical cyclones including fronts, and the others) to changes in annual mean and extreme precipitations in the late 21st century using multi-model projections of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The weather systems are identified from atmospheric fields of CMIP5 simulations at every 6-hour using objective detection method. Precipitation within a certain distance from a weather system is regarded to be associated with the weather system. The proportions of weather system-wise precipitation in annual mean and extreme precipitation are estimated for the present and future climate. It is found that the subtropics, particularly in the Pacific and North Atlantic, are the regions where the notable changes of the proportions are detected. Given that the proportion of weather systems is one of the important factors which characterize the climate regime of each region, the change in the proportion indicates the shift of climate regime of the region. The contributions of weather systems to future changes in precipitation are also quantified. In regions where a shift of the climate regime is projected, even a minor weather system in the present climate can cause considerable changes in annual and extreme precipitation. Conference Object North Atlantic T2R2 (Tokyo Tech Research Repository) Pacific |
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English |
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Future changes in precipitations due to climate change are of great concern to society. Changes in the precipitation is expected to be caused by the changes in various weather systems (e.g., tropical cyclones). However, questions such as “Which weather systems will cause which changes?” and “Is the relative importance of these weather systems likely to change in the future?” have not been addressed fully yet. Here, we present the global estimates of the relative contributions of different weather systems (i.e., tropical cyclones, extratropical cyclones including fronts, and the others) to changes in annual mean and extreme precipitations in the late 21st century using multi-model projections of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The weather systems are identified from atmospheric fields of CMIP5 simulations at every 6-hour using objective detection method. Precipitation within a certain distance from a weather system is regarded to be associated with the weather system. The proportions of weather system-wise precipitation in annual mean and extreme precipitation are estimated for the present and future climate. It is found that the subtropics, particularly in the Pacific and North Atlantic, are the regions where the notable changes of the proportions are detected. Given that the proportion of weather systems is one of the important factors which characterize the climate regime of each region, the change in the proportion indicates the shift of climate regime of the region. The contributions of weather systems to future changes in precipitation are also quantified. In regions where a shift of the climate regime is projected, even a minor weather system in the present climate can cause considerable changes in annual and extreme precipitation. |
format |
Conference Object |
author |
内海 信幸 Utsumi Nobuyuki 金 炯俊 Hyungjun KIM 鼎信次郎 Shinjiro Kanae 沖大幹 Taikan Oki |
spellingShingle |
内海 信幸 Utsumi Nobuyuki 金 炯俊 Hyungjun KIM 鼎信次郎 Shinjiro Kanae 沖大幹 Taikan Oki Relative contributions of different weather systems to the changes in annual mean and extreme precipitation in CMIP5 models |
author_facet |
内海 信幸 Utsumi Nobuyuki 金 炯俊 Hyungjun KIM 鼎信次郎 Shinjiro Kanae 沖大幹 Taikan Oki |
author_sort |
内海 信幸 |
title |
Relative contributions of different weather systems to the changes in annual mean and extreme precipitation in CMIP5 models |
title_short |
Relative contributions of different weather systems to the changes in annual mean and extreme precipitation in CMIP5 models |
title_full |
Relative contributions of different weather systems to the changes in annual mean and extreme precipitation in CMIP5 models |
title_fullStr |
Relative contributions of different weather systems to the changes in annual mean and extreme precipitation in CMIP5 models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Relative contributions of different weather systems to the changes in annual mean and extreme precipitation in CMIP5 models |
title_sort |
relative contributions of different weather systems to the changes in annual mean and extreme precipitation in cmip5 models |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
http://t2r2.star.titech.ac.jp/cgi-bin/publicationinfo.cgi?q_publication_content_number=CTT100746477 |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
http://t2r2.star.titech.ac.jp/cgi-bin/publicationinfo.cgi?q_publication_content_number=CTT100746477 oai:t2r2.star.titech.ac.jp:50376975 |
_version_ |
1772817527402921984 |