Prominent role of volcanism in Common Era climate variability and human history
Climate reconstructions for the Common Era are compromised by the paucity of annually-resolved and absolutely-dated proxy records prior to medieval times. Where reconstructions are based on combinations of different climate archive types (of varying spatiotemporal resolution, dating uncertainty, rec...
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Jena : Urban & Fischer
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Online Access: | https://oa.tib.eu/renate/handle/123456789/10202 https://doi.org/10.34657/9238 |
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fttibhannoverren:oai:oa.tib.eu:123456789/10202 2024-09-15T18:23:49+00:00 Prominent role of volcanism in Common Era climate variability and human history Büntgen, Ulf Arseneault, Dominique Boucher, Étienne Churakova, Olga V. Gennaretti, Fabio Crivellaro, Alan Hughes, Malcolm K. Kirdyanov, Alexander V. Klippel, Lara Krusic, Paul J. Linderholm, Hans W. Ljungqvist, Fredrik C. Ludescher, Josef McCormick, Michael Myglan, Vladimir S. Nicolussi, Kurt Piermattei, Alma Oppenheimer, Clive Reinig, Frederick Sigl, Michael Vaganov, Eugene A. Esper, Jan 2020 application/pdf https://oa.tib.eu/renate/handle/123456789/10202 https://doi.org/10.34657/9238 eng eng Jena : Urban & Fischer ESSN:1612-0051 DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dendro.2020.125757 https://oa.tib.eu/renate/handle/123456789/10202 http://dx.doi.org/10.34657/9238 CC BY 4.0 Unported https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ frei zugänglich ddc:930 Climate reconstruction Dendroclimatology Human history Northern Hemisphere Tree-ring width Volcanic eruptions status-type:publishedVersion doc-type:Article doc-type:Text 2020 fttibhannoverren https://doi.org/10.34657/923810.1016/j.dendro.2020.125757 2024-06-26T23:32:42Z Climate reconstructions for the Common Era are compromised by the paucity of annually-resolved and absolutely-dated proxy records prior to medieval times. Where reconstructions are based on combinations of different climate archive types (of varying spatiotemporal resolution, dating uncertainty, record length and predictive skill), it is challenging to estimate past amplitude ranges, disentangle the relative roles of natural and anthropogenic forcing, or probe deeper interrelationships between climate variability and human history. Here, we compile and analyse updated versions of all the existing summer temperature sensitive tree-ring width chronologies from the Northern Hemisphere that span the entire Common Era. We apply a novel ensemble approach to reconstruct extra-tropical summer temperatures from 1 to 2010 CE, and calculate uncertainties at continental to hemispheric scales. Peak warming in the 280s, 990s and 1020s, when volcanic forcing was low, was comparable to modern conditions until 2010 CE. The lowest June–August temperature anomaly in 536 not only marks the beginning of the coldest decade, but also defines the onset of the Late Antique Little Ice Age (LALIA). While prolonged warmth during Roman and medieval times roughly coincides with the tendency towards societal prosperity across much of the North Atlantic/European sector and East Asia, major episodes of volcanically-forced summer cooling often presaged widespread famines, plague outbreaks and political upheavals. Our study reveals a larger amplitude of spatially synchronized summer temperature variation during the first millennium of the Common Era than previously recognised. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Renate - Repositorium für Naturwissenschaften und Technik (TIB Hannover) |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Renate - Repositorium für Naturwissenschaften und Technik (TIB Hannover) |
op_collection_id |
fttibhannoverren |
language |
English |
topic |
ddc:930 Climate reconstruction Dendroclimatology Human history Northern Hemisphere Tree-ring width Volcanic eruptions |
spellingShingle |
ddc:930 Climate reconstruction Dendroclimatology Human history Northern Hemisphere Tree-ring width Volcanic eruptions Büntgen, Ulf Arseneault, Dominique Boucher, Étienne Churakova, Olga V. Gennaretti, Fabio Crivellaro, Alan Hughes, Malcolm K. Kirdyanov, Alexander V. Klippel, Lara Krusic, Paul J. Linderholm, Hans W. Ljungqvist, Fredrik C. Ludescher, Josef McCormick, Michael Myglan, Vladimir S. Nicolussi, Kurt Piermattei, Alma Oppenheimer, Clive Reinig, Frederick Sigl, Michael Vaganov, Eugene A. Esper, Jan Prominent role of volcanism in Common Era climate variability and human history |
topic_facet |
ddc:930 Climate reconstruction Dendroclimatology Human history Northern Hemisphere Tree-ring width Volcanic eruptions |
description |
Climate reconstructions for the Common Era are compromised by the paucity of annually-resolved and absolutely-dated proxy records prior to medieval times. Where reconstructions are based on combinations of different climate archive types (of varying spatiotemporal resolution, dating uncertainty, record length and predictive skill), it is challenging to estimate past amplitude ranges, disentangle the relative roles of natural and anthropogenic forcing, or probe deeper interrelationships between climate variability and human history. Here, we compile and analyse updated versions of all the existing summer temperature sensitive tree-ring width chronologies from the Northern Hemisphere that span the entire Common Era. We apply a novel ensemble approach to reconstruct extra-tropical summer temperatures from 1 to 2010 CE, and calculate uncertainties at continental to hemispheric scales. Peak warming in the 280s, 990s and 1020s, when volcanic forcing was low, was comparable to modern conditions until 2010 CE. The lowest June–August temperature anomaly in 536 not only marks the beginning of the coldest decade, but also defines the onset of the Late Antique Little Ice Age (LALIA). While prolonged warmth during Roman and medieval times roughly coincides with the tendency towards societal prosperity across much of the North Atlantic/European sector and East Asia, major episodes of volcanically-forced summer cooling often presaged widespread famines, plague outbreaks and political upheavals. Our study reveals a larger amplitude of spatially synchronized summer temperature variation during the first millennium of the Common Era than previously recognised. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Büntgen, Ulf Arseneault, Dominique Boucher, Étienne Churakova, Olga V. Gennaretti, Fabio Crivellaro, Alan Hughes, Malcolm K. Kirdyanov, Alexander V. Klippel, Lara Krusic, Paul J. Linderholm, Hans W. Ljungqvist, Fredrik C. Ludescher, Josef McCormick, Michael Myglan, Vladimir S. Nicolussi, Kurt Piermattei, Alma Oppenheimer, Clive Reinig, Frederick Sigl, Michael Vaganov, Eugene A. Esper, Jan |
author_facet |
Büntgen, Ulf Arseneault, Dominique Boucher, Étienne Churakova, Olga V. Gennaretti, Fabio Crivellaro, Alan Hughes, Malcolm K. Kirdyanov, Alexander V. Klippel, Lara Krusic, Paul J. Linderholm, Hans W. Ljungqvist, Fredrik C. Ludescher, Josef McCormick, Michael Myglan, Vladimir S. Nicolussi, Kurt Piermattei, Alma Oppenheimer, Clive Reinig, Frederick Sigl, Michael Vaganov, Eugene A. Esper, Jan |
author_sort |
Büntgen, Ulf |
title |
Prominent role of volcanism in Common Era climate variability and human history |
title_short |
Prominent role of volcanism in Common Era climate variability and human history |
title_full |
Prominent role of volcanism in Common Era climate variability and human history |
title_fullStr |
Prominent role of volcanism in Common Era climate variability and human history |
title_full_unstemmed |
Prominent role of volcanism in Common Era climate variability and human history |
title_sort |
prominent role of volcanism in common era climate variability and human history |
publisher |
Jena : Urban & Fischer |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://oa.tib.eu/renate/handle/123456789/10202 https://doi.org/10.34657/9238 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
ESSN:1612-0051 DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dendro.2020.125757 https://oa.tib.eu/renate/handle/123456789/10202 http://dx.doi.org/10.34657/9238 |
op_rights |
CC BY 4.0 Unported https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ frei zugänglich |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.34657/923810.1016/j.dendro.2020.125757 |
_version_ |
1810464084379828224 |