Persistent northward North Atlantic tropical cyclone track migration over the past five centuries
Accurately predicting future tropical cyclone risk requires understanding the fundamental controls on tropical cyclone dynamics. Here we present an annually-resolved 450-year reconstruction of western Caribbean tropical cyclone activity developed using a new coupled carbon and oxygen isotope ratio t...
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2016
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Online Access: | https://research.tees.ac.uk/en/publications/d32ba857-a4aa-41b1-9028-3cc10b8600c4 https://doi.org/10.1038/srep37522 |
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ftteesunivpubl:oai:https://research.tees.ac.uk/ws/oai:publications/d32ba857-a4aa-41b1-9028-3cc10b8600c4 2023-05-15T17:32:47+02:00 Persistent northward North Atlantic tropical cyclone track migration over the past five centuries Baldini, Lisa M. Baldini, James U. L. McElwaine, Jim N. Frappier, Amy Benoit Asmerom, Yemane Liu, Kam-biu Prufer, Keith M. Ridley, Harriet E. Polyak, Victor Kennett, Douglas J. Macpherson, Colin G. Aquino, Valorie V. Awe, Jaime Breitenbach, Sebastian F. M. 2016-11-23 https://research.tees.ac.uk/en/publications/d32ba857-a4aa-41b1-9028-3cc10b8600c4 https://doi.org/10.1038/srep37522 eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Baldini , L M , Baldini , J U L , McElwaine , J N , Frappier , A B , Asmerom , Y , Liu , K , Prufer , K M , Ridley , H E , Polyak , V , Kennett , D J , Macpherson , C G , Aquino , V V , Awe , J & Breitenbach , S F M 2016 , ' Persistent northward North Atlantic tropical cyclone track migration over the past five centuries ' , Scientific Reports , pp. 5-8 . https://doi.org/10.1038/srep37522 article 2016 ftteesunivpubl https://doi.org/10.1038/srep37522 2021-12-31T16:15:37Z Accurately predicting future tropical cyclone risk requires understanding the fundamental controls on tropical cyclone dynamics. Here we present an annually-resolved 450-year reconstruction of western Caribbean tropical cyclone activity developed using a new coupled carbon and oxygen isotope ratio technique in an exceptionally well-dated stalagmite from Belize. Western Caribbean tropical cyclone activity peaked at 1650 A.D., coincident with maximum Little Ice Age cooling, and decreased gradually until the end of the record in 1983. Considered with other reconstructions, the new record suggests that the mean track of Cape Verde tropical cyclones shifted gradually north-eastward from the western Caribbean toward the North American east coast over the last 450 years. Since ~1870 A.D., these shifts were largely driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gas and sulphate aerosol emissions. Our results strongly suggest that future emission scenarios will result in more frequent tropical cyclone impacts on the financial and population centres of the northeastern United States. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Teesside University's Research Portal Scientific Reports 6 1 |
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Teesside University's Research Portal |
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English |
description |
Accurately predicting future tropical cyclone risk requires understanding the fundamental controls on tropical cyclone dynamics. Here we present an annually-resolved 450-year reconstruction of western Caribbean tropical cyclone activity developed using a new coupled carbon and oxygen isotope ratio technique in an exceptionally well-dated stalagmite from Belize. Western Caribbean tropical cyclone activity peaked at 1650 A.D., coincident with maximum Little Ice Age cooling, and decreased gradually until the end of the record in 1983. Considered with other reconstructions, the new record suggests that the mean track of Cape Verde tropical cyclones shifted gradually north-eastward from the western Caribbean toward the North American east coast over the last 450 years. Since ~1870 A.D., these shifts were largely driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gas and sulphate aerosol emissions. Our results strongly suggest that future emission scenarios will result in more frequent tropical cyclone impacts on the financial and population centres of the northeastern United States. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Baldini, Lisa M. Baldini, James U. L. McElwaine, Jim N. Frappier, Amy Benoit Asmerom, Yemane Liu, Kam-biu Prufer, Keith M. Ridley, Harriet E. Polyak, Victor Kennett, Douglas J. Macpherson, Colin G. Aquino, Valorie V. Awe, Jaime Breitenbach, Sebastian F. M. |
spellingShingle |
Baldini, Lisa M. Baldini, James U. L. McElwaine, Jim N. Frappier, Amy Benoit Asmerom, Yemane Liu, Kam-biu Prufer, Keith M. Ridley, Harriet E. Polyak, Victor Kennett, Douglas J. Macpherson, Colin G. Aquino, Valorie V. Awe, Jaime Breitenbach, Sebastian F. M. Persistent northward North Atlantic tropical cyclone track migration over the past five centuries |
author_facet |
Baldini, Lisa M. Baldini, James U. L. McElwaine, Jim N. Frappier, Amy Benoit Asmerom, Yemane Liu, Kam-biu Prufer, Keith M. Ridley, Harriet E. Polyak, Victor Kennett, Douglas J. Macpherson, Colin G. Aquino, Valorie V. Awe, Jaime Breitenbach, Sebastian F. M. |
author_sort |
Baldini, Lisa M. |
title |
Persistent northward North Atlantic tropical cyclone track migration over the past five centuries |
title_short |
Persistent northward North Atlantic tropical cyclone track migration over the past five centuries |
title_full |
Persistent northward North Atlantic tropical cyclone track migration over the past five centuries |
title_fullStr |
Persistent northward North Atlantic tropical cyclone track migration over the past five centuries |
title_full_unstemmed |
Persistent northward North Atlantic tropical cyclone track migration over the past five centuries |
title_sort |
persistent northward north atlantic tropical cyclone track migration over the past five centuries |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://research.tees.ac.uk/en/publications/d32ba857-a4aa-41b1-9028-3cc10b8600c4 https://doi.org/10.1038/srep37522 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Baldini , L M , Baldini , J U L , McElwaine , J N , Frappier , A B , Asmerom , Y , Liu , K , Prufer , K M , Ridley , H E , Polyak , V , Kennett , D J , Macpherson , C G , Aquino , V V , Awe , J & Breitenbach , S F M 2016 , ' Persistent northward North Atlantic tropical cyclone track migration over the past five centuries ' , Scientific Reports , pp. 5-8 . https://doi.org/10.1038/srep37522 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/srep37522 |
container_title |
Scientific Reports |
container_volume |
6 |
container_issue |
1 |
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1766131069279535104 |