Evaluation of Large-Scale Railway Projects: an Unsystem Approach
The problem of assessing the social effectiveness of large-scale railway projects (hereinafter referred to as the CPAW) is considered in this article in the light of J. Kornais system paradigm and its instrumental specification as a non-system approach. In this context, the CPCR is analyzed as large...
Published in: | Bulletin of the South Ural State University. Ser. Computer Technologies, Automatic Control & Radioelectronics |
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Online Access: | https://vestnik.susu.ru/ctcr/article/view/8900 https://doi.org/10.14529/ctcr190310 |
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ftsusunivojs:oai:ojs.vestnik.susu.ac.ru:article/8900 2024-09-15T18:16:03+00:00 Evaluation of Large-Scale Railway Projects: an Unsystem Approach Оценка крупномасштабных железнодорожных проектов: неосистемный подход Кибалов, Евгений Борисович Шибикин, Дмитрий Дмитриевич 2019-09-01 application/pdf https://vestnik.susu.ru/ctcr/article/view/8900 https://doi.org/10.14529/ctcr190310 rus rus South Ural State University Южно-Уральский государственный университет https://vestnik.susu.ru/ctcr/article/view/8900/7181 https://vestnik.susu.ru/ctcr/article/view/8900 doi:10.14529/ctcr190310 (c) 2019 Компьютерные технологии, управление, радиоэлектроника Computer Technologies, Automatic Control, Radioelectronics; Том 19, № 3 (2019); 104-115 Компьютерные технологии, управление, радиоэлектроника; Том 19, № 3 (2019); 104-115 2409-6571 1991-976X large-scale railway project system paradigm neo-system approach computer product Lensko-Kamchatka highway Subpolar highway criteria of the theory of decision making крупномасштабный железнодорожный проект системная парадигма неосистемный подход компьютерный продукт Ленско-Камчатская магистраль Приполярная магистраль критерии теории принятия решений info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 2019 ftsusunivojs https://doi.org/10.14529/ctcr190310 2024-06-24T03:11:41Z The problem of assessing the social effectiveness of large-scale railway projects (hereinafter referred to as the CPAW) is considered in this article in the light of J. Kornais system paradigm and its instrumental specification as a non-system approach. In this context, the CPCR is analyzed as large and complex socio-technical systems. The objects of research are the Lensko-Kamchatskaya and Subpolar railway lines, which are at the stage of pre-investment studies in the first case and partially implemented in the second, when the uncertainty of costs and results is extremely high. To assess the comparative effectiveness of these projects, computer products were used – foreign and domestic, designed to work within the framework of the theory of making complex decisions with semiverbal models and expert information. Computational experiments have shown that different computer products, as a means of supporting investment decision-making procedures, give analysts different recommendations about the preference of compared projects. It is shown that the reason is inadequate accounting for foreign products (as applied to large-scale projects) of the uncertainty factor. The conclusion is made about the productivity of the tools of the neosystemic approach implemented by the authors of the article as an integrator of verbal and mathematical models in evaluating large-scale projects in a situation of uncertainty. Проблема оценки общественной эффективности крупномасштабных железнодорожных проектов (далее КПЖД) рассматривается в настоящей статье в свете системной парадигмы Я. Корнаи и ее инструментальной конкретизации как неосистемного подхода. В этом контексте КПЖД анализируются как большие и сложные социотехнические системы. В качестве объектов исследования выступают Ленско-Камчатская и Приполярная железнодорожные магистрали, находящиеся на стадии прединвестиционных обоснований в первом случае и частичной реализации во втором, когда неопределенность затрат и результатов чрезвычайно высока. Для оценки сравнительной ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Kamchatka Bulletin of the South Ural State University Bulletin of the South Ural State University. Ser. Computer Technologies, Automatic Control & Radioelectronics 19 3 104 115 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Bulletin of the South Ural State University |
op_collection_id |
ftsusunivojs |
language |
Russian |
topic |
large-scale railway project system paradigm neo-system approach computer product Lensko-Kamchatka highway Subpolar highway criteria of the theory of decision making крупномасштабный железнодорожный проект системная парадигма неосистемный подход компьютерный продукт Ленско-Камчатская магистраль Приполярная магистраль критерии теории принятия решений |
spellingShingle |
large-scale railway project system paradigm neo-system approach computer product Lensko-Kamchatka highway Subpolar highway criteria of the theory of decision making крупномасштабный железнодорожный проект системная парадигма неосистемный подход компьютерный продукт Ленско-Камчатская магистраль Приполярная магистраль критерии теории принятия решений Кибалов, Евгений Борисович Шибикин, Дмитрий Дмитриевич Evaluation of Large-Scale Railway Projects: an Unsystem Approach |
topic_facet |
large-scale railway project system paradigm neo-system approach computer product Lensko-Kamchatka highway Subpolar highway criteria of the theory of decision making крупномасштабный железнодорожный проект системная парадигма неосистемный подход компьютерный продукт Ленско-Камчатская магистраль Приполярная магистраль критерии теории принятия решений |
description |
The problem of assessing the social effectiveness of large-scale railway projects (hereinafter referred to as the CPAW) is considered in this article in the light of J. Kornais system paradigm and its instrumental specification as a non-system approach. In this context, the CPCR is analyzed as large and complex socio-technical systems. The objects of research are the Lensko-Kamchatskaya and Subpolar railway lines, which are at the stage of pre-investment studies in the first case and partially implemented in the second, when the uncertainty of costs and results is extremely high. To assess the comparative effectiveness of these projects, computer products were used – foreign and domestic, designed to work within the framework of the theory of making complex decisions with semiverbal models and expert information. Computational experiments have shown that different computer products, as a means of supporting investment decision-making procedures, give analysts different recommendations about the preference of compared projects. It is shown that the reason is inadequate accounting for foreign products (as applied to large-scale projects) of the uncertainty factor. The conclusion is made about the productivity of the tools of the neosystemic approach implemented by the authors of the article as an integrator of verbal and mathematical models in evaluating large-scale projects in a situation of uncertainty. Проблема оценки общественной эффективности крупномасштабных железнодорожных проектов (далее КПЖД) рассматривается в настоящей статье в свете системной парадигмы Я. Корнаи и ее инструментальной конкретизации как неосистемного подхода. В этом контексте КПЖД анализируются как большие и сложные социотехнические системы. В качестве объектов исследования выступают Ленско-Камчатская и Приполярная железнодорожные магистрали, находящиеся на стадии прединвестиционных обоснований в первом случае и частичной реализации во втором, когда неопределенность затрат и результатов чрезвычайно высока. Для оценки сравнительной ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Кибалов, Евгений Борисович Шибикин, Дмитрий Дмитриевич |
author_facet |
Кибалов, Евгений Борисович Шибикин, Дмитрий Дмитриевич |
author_sort |
Кибалов, Евгений Борисович |
title |
Evaluation of Large-Scale Railway Projects: an Unsystem Approach |
title_short |
Evaluation of Large-Scale Railway Projects: an Unsystem Approach |
title_full |
Evaluation of Large-Scale Railway Projects: an Unsystem Approach |
title_fullStr |
Evaluation of Large-Scale Railway Projects: an Unsystem Approach |
title_full_unstemmed |
Evaluation of Large-Scale Railway Projects: an Unsystem Approach |
title_sort |
evaluation of large-scale railway projects: an unsystem approach |
publisher |
South Ural State University |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://vestnik.susu.ru/ctcr/article/view/8900 https://doi.org/10.14529/ctcr190310 |
genre |
Kamchatka |
genre_facet |
Kamchatka |
op_source |
Computer Technologies, Automatic Control, Radioelectronics; Том 19, № 3 (2019); 104-115 Компьютерные технологии, управление, радиоэлектроника; Том 19, № 3 (2019); 104-115 2409-6571 1991-976X |
op_relation |
https://vestnik.susu.ru/ctcr/article/view/8900/7181 https://vestnik.susu.ru/ctcr/article/view/8900 doi:10.14529/ctcr190310 |
op_rights |
(c) 2019 Компьютерные технологии, управление, радиоэлектроника |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.14529/ctcr190310 |
container_title |
Bulletin of the South Ural State University. Ser. Computer Technologies, Automatic Control & Radioelectronics |
container_volume |
19 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
104 |
op_container_end_page |
115 |
_version_ |
1810454032458711040 |