God did not save the kings

• Published in: Ecological Economics
• Main Authors: Panel, Sophie, Pietri, Antoine
• Other Authors: Centre d'études sur la sécurité internationale et les coopérations européennes (CESICE), Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble (IEPG), Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA), Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble (IEPG), Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA), Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier (CEE-M), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Institut Agro Montpellier, Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Université de Montpellier (UM)
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2022
• Subjects: King penguins; Costs of conflict; Ecological impact of warfare; Falklands war; JEL: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods/C.C2 - Single Equation Models • Single Variables/C.C2.C22 - Time-Series Models • Dynamic Quantile Regressions • Dynamic Treatment Effect Models • Diffusion Processes; JEL: F - International Economics/F.F5 - International Relations; National Security; and International Political Economy/F.F5.F51 - International Conflicts • Negotiations • Sanctions; JEL: Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics • Environmental and Ecological Economics/Q.Q5 - Environmental Economics/Q.Q5.Q57 - Ecological Economics: Ecosystem Services • Biodiversity Conservation • Bioeconomics • Industrial Ecology; [SHS]Humanities and Social Sciences; [SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance; Antarc*; Antarctic; King Penguins
• Online Access: https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-03817391; https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2022.107580

International audience Warfare has been found to have detrimental impacts on local ecosystems. Armed conflict can generate environmental damages through intertwined channels: scorched earth tactics, indirect effects following institutional collapse or economic and social disruption, and direct effects of combat operations. While the two first channels are well understood, the third one has been comparatively neglected. This paper analyzes the environmental consequences of one of the largest aerial and naval conflicts of the late 20th century, namely the 1982 Falklands War. As an indicator of the marine ecosystem status, we analyze population trends of king penguins breeding in the Falkland Islands over the period 1963–1997. Using interrupted time series analysis, which we then complement with a synthetic control group based on data from other Sub-Antarctic colonies, we find that the war significantly slowed the growth rate of king penguins' breeding population.