Forecasting the Marine Biological Environment: Exploring the Spatial Distribution of a North Atlantic Fish Species at the Example of Blue Whiting

• Published in: Frontiers in Marine Science
• Main Author: Miesner, Anna Katharina
• Other Authors: Schrum, Corinna, Baehr, Johanna
• Format: Doctoral or Postdoctoral Thesis
• Language: English
• Published: Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky 2021
• Subjects: ecological forecast; habitat preference; statistical modelling; North Atlantic; prediction; 550: Geowissenschaften; Geowissenschaften; Meereskunde; Blauer Wittling; Naturwissenschaftliche Forschung; ddc:550: Rockall Plateau; North East Atlantic
• Online Access: http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:gbv:18-ediss-100021; https://ediss.sub.uni-hamburg.de/handle/ediss/9571

This dissertation contributes towards forecasting the marine biological environment. The overall aim of this contribution is to better understand, model, and forecast changes in the spatial distribution of marine organisms, at the example of the North East Atlantic fish species blue whiting. Climate-driven distributional shifts of marine organisms pose challenges to both monitoring and management of the species. Anticipating such spatial shifts would enhance the climate-resilience of marine resource management practices and motivated this dissertation. A central and novel aspect of this dissertation is the quantification of the relationship between blue whiting and its marine environment, which for the first time allows us to explore the potential of forecasting spatial variations of this species distribution.Using blue whiting as a case study, I illustrate how spatial variations of the potential spawning region of blue whiting are connected to oceanographic variability. Based on an extensive set of blue whiting larval observations I create statistical species distribution models. These models show an expansion of the potential spawning region over Rockall Plateau during warm and saline conditions and a contraction towards the continental shelf when conditions are colder and fresher, supporting previous studies. Going beyond, my work enables a quantification of the species-environment relationship that highlights that spawning commonly occurs within a specific range of salinity. This quantification of the species-environment relationship enables me to translate forecasts of the physical marine environment into biological forecasts. In particular, I explore the potential of forecasting spatial variations of the suitable spawning habitat of blue whiting at inter- to multi annual timescales based on a state-of-the-art Earth System Model (ESM). I find that the ESM skilfully predicts temperature and in particular, salinity within the spatial and temporal domain relevant for spawning blue whiting, making biological ...