Preserving the coupled atmosphere–ocean feedback in initializations of decadal climate predictions
On interannual to decadal time scales, memory in the Earth's climate system resides to a large extent in the slowly varying heat content of the ocean, which responds to fast atmospheric variability and in turn sets the frame for large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. This large-scale cou...
Published in: | WIREs Climate Change |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
2020
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.637 http://resolver.sub.uni-goettingen.de/purl?gldocs-11858/9369 |
id |
ftsubggeo:oai:e-docs.geo-leo.de:11858/9369 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftsubggeo:oai:e-docs.geo-leo.de:11858/9369 2023-05-15T17:34:26+02:00 Preserving the coupled atmosphere–ocean feedback in initializations of decadal climate predictions Brune, Sebastian Baehr, Johanna 2020 https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.637 http://resolver.sub.uni-goettingen.de/purl?gldocs-11858/9369 eng eng doi:10.1002/wcc.637 http://resolver.sub.uni-goettingen.de/purl?gldocs-11858/9369 This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and is not used for commercial purposes. CC-BY-NC ddc:551.6 coupled data assimilation decadal climate prediction earth system model large-scale atmosphere-ocean feedback model-consistent initialization doc-type:article 2020 ftsubggeo https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.637 2022-11-09T06:51:40Z On interannual to decadal time scales, memory in the Earth's climate system resides to a large extent in the slowly varying heat content of the ocean, which responds to fast atmospheric variability and in turn sets the frame for large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. This large-scale coupled atmosphere–ocean feedback is generally well represented in today's Earth system models. This may fundamentally change when data assimilation is used to bring such models close to an observed state to initialize interannual to decadal climate predictions. Here, we review how the large-scale coupled atmosphere–ocean feedback is preserved in common approaches to construct such initial conditions, with the focus on the initialized ocean state. In a set of decadal prediction experiments, ranging from an initialization of atmospheric variability only to full-field nudging of both atmosphere and ocean, we evaluate the variability and predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, of the Atlantic multidecadal variability and North Atlantic subpolar gyre sea surface temperatures. We argue that the quality of initial conditions for decadal predictions should not purely be assessed by their closeness to observations, but also by the closeness of their respective predictions to observations. This prediction quality may depend on the representation of the simulated large-scale atmosphere–ocean feedback. This article is categorized under: Climate Models and Modeling > Knowledge Generation with Models Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic GEO-LEOe-docs (FID GEO) WIREs Climate Change 11 3 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
GEO-LEOe-docs (FID GEO) |
op_collection_id |
ftsubggeo |
language |
English |
topic |
ddc:551.6 coupled data assimilation decadal climate prediction earth system model large-scale atmosphere-ocean feedback model-consistent initialization |
spellingShingle |
ddc:551.6 coupled data assimilation decadal climate prediction earth system model large-scale atmosphere-ocean feedback model-consistent initialization Brune, Sebastian Baehr, Johanna Preserving the coupled atmosphere–ocean feedback in initializations of decadal climate predictions |
topic_facet |
ddc:551.6 coupled data assimilation decadal climate prediction earth system model large-scale atmosphere-ocean feedback model-consistent initialization |
description |
On interannual to decadal time scales, memory in the Earth's climate system resides to a large extent in the slowly varying heat content of the ocean, which responds to fast atmospheric variability and in turn sets the frame for large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. This large-scale coupled atmosphere–ocean feedback is generally well represented in today's Earth system models. This may fundamentally change when data assimilation is used to bring such models close to an observed state to initialize interannual to decadal climate predictions. Here, we review how the large-scale coupled atmosphere–ocean feedback is preserved in common approaches to construct such initial conditions, with the focus on the initialized ocean state. In a set of decadal prediction experiments, ranging from an initialization of atmospheric variability only to full-field nudging of both atmosphere and ocean, we evaluate the variability and predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, of the Atlantic multidecadal variability and North Atlantic subpolar gyre sea surface temperatures. We argue that the quality of initial conditions for decadal predictions should not purely be assessed by their closeness to observations, but also by the closeness of their respective predictions to observations. This prediction quality may depend on the representation of the simulated large-scale atmosphere–ocean feedback. This article is categorized under: Climate Models and Modeling > Knowledge Generation with Models |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Brune, Sebastian Baehr, Johanna |
author_facet |
Brune, Sebastian Baehr, Johanna |
author_sort |
Brune, Sebastian |
title |
Preserving the coupled atmosphere–ocean feedback in initializations of decadal climate predictions |
title_short |
Preserving the coupled atmosphere–ocean feedback in initializations of decadal climate predictions |
title_full |
Preserving the coupled atmosphere–ocean feedback in initializations of decadal climate predictions |
title_fullStr |
Preserving the coupled atmosphere–ocean feedback in initializations of decadal climate predictions |
title_full_unstemmed |
Preserving the coupled atmosphere–ocean feedback in initializations of decadal climate predictions |
title_sort |
preserving the coupled atmosphere–ocean feedback in initializations of decadal climate predictions |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.637 http://resolver.sub.uni-goettingen.de/purl?gldocs-11858/9369 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
doi:10.1002/wcc.637 http://resolver.sub.uni-goettingen.de/purl?gldocs-11858/9369 |
op_rights |
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and is not used for commercial purposes. |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY-NC |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.637 |
container_title |
WIREs Climate Change |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
3 |
_version_ |
1766133262808252416 |