Predictability of Antarctic Sea Ice Edge on Subseasonal Time Scales
Coupled subseasonal forecast systems with dynamical sea ice have the potential of providing important predictive information in polar regions. Here, we evaluate the ability of operational ensemble prediction systems to predict the location of the sea ice edge in Antarctica. Compared to the Arctic, A...
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ftsubggeo:oai:e-docs.geo-leo.de:11858/9031 2023-05-15T13:42:31+02:00 Predictability of Antarctic Sea Ice Edge on Subseasonal Time Scales Zampieri, Lorenzo Goessling, Helge F. Jung, Thomas 2019 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084096 http://resolver.sub.uni-goettingen.de/purl?gldocs-11858/9031 eng eng doi:10.1029/2019GL084096 http://resolver.sub.uni-goettingen.de/purl?gldocs-11858/9031 This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. CC-BY ddc:551.343 sea ice prediction sea ice edge Antarctica Southern Ocean S2S time scale doc-type:article 2019 ftsubggeo https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084096 2022-11-09T06:51:38Z Coupled subseasonal forecast systems with dynamical sea ice have the potential of providing important predictive information in polar regions. Here, we evaluate the ability of operational ensemble prediction systems to predict the location of the sea ice edge in Antarctica. Compared to the Arctic, Antarctica shows on average a 30% lower skill, with only one system remaining more skillful than a climatological benchmark up to ∼30 days ahead. Skill tends to be highest in the west Antarctic sector during the early freezing season. Most of the systems tend to overestimate the sea ice edge extent and fail to capture the onset of the melting season. All the forecast systems exhibit large initial errors. We conclude that subseasonal sea ice predictions could provide marginal support for decision-making only in selected seasons and regions of the Southern Ocean. However, major progress is possible through investments in model development, forecast initialization and calibration. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Arctic Sea ice Southern Ocean GEO-LEOe-docs (FID GEO) Arctic Antarctic Southern Ocean Geophysical Research Letters 46 16 9719 9727 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
GEO-LEOe-docs (FID GEO) |
op_collection_id |
ftsubggeo |
language |
English |
topic |
ddc:551.343 sea ice prediction sea ice edge Antarctica Southern Ocean S2S time scale |
spellingShingle |
ddc:551.343 sea ice prediction sea ice edge Antarctica Southern Ocean S2S time scale Zampieri, Lorenzo Goessling, Helge F. Jung, Thomas Predictability of Antarctic Sea Ice Edge on Subseasonal Time Scales |
topic_facet |
ddc:551.343 sea ice prediction sea ice edge Antarctica Southern Ocean S2S time scale |
description |
Coupled subseasonal forecast systems with dynamical sea ice have the potential of providing important predictive information in polar regions. Here, we evaluate the ability of operational ensemble prediction systems to predict the location of the sea ice edge in Antarctica. Compared to the Arctic, Antarctica shows on average a 30% lower skill, with only one system remaining more skillful than a climatological benchmark up to ∼30 days ahead. Skill tends to be highest in the west Antarctic sector during the early freezing season. Most of the systems tend to overestimate the sea ice edge extent and fail to capture the onset of the melting season. All the forecast systems exhibit large initial errors. We conclude that subseasonal sea ice predictions could provide marginal support for decision-making only in selected seasons and regions of the Southern Ocean. However, major progress is possible through investments in model development, forecast initialization and calibration. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Zampieri, Lorenzo Goessling, Helge F. Jung, Thomas |
author_facet |
Zampieri, Lorenzo Goessling, Helge F. Jung, Thomas |
author_sort |
Zampieri, Lorenzo |
title |
Predictability of Antarctic Sea Ice Edge on Subseasonal Time Scales |
title_short |
Predictability of Antarctic Sea Ice Edge on Subseasonal Time Scales |
title_full |
Predictability of Antarctic Sea Ice Edge on Subseasonal Time Scales |
title_fullStr |
Predictability of Antarctic Sea Ice Edge on Subseasonal Time Scales |
title_full_unstemmed |
Predictability of Antarctic Sea Ice Edge on Subseasonal Time Scales |
title_sort |
predictability of antarctic sea ice edge on subseasonal time scales |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084096 http://resolver.sub.uni-goettingen.de/purl?gldocs-11858/9031 |
geographic |
Arctic Antarctic Southern Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Antarctic Southern Ocean |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Arctic Sea ice Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Arctic Sea ice Southern Ocean |
op_relation |
doi:10.1029/2019GL084096 http://resolver.sub.uni-goettingen.de/purl?gldocs-11858/9031 |
op_rights |
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084096 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
46 |
container_issue |
16 |
container_start_page |
9719 |
op_container_end_page |
9727 |
_version_ |
1766168903617085440 |