Nonstationarity of the link between the Tropics and the summer East Atlantic pattern
A 700‐year pre‐industrial control run with the MPI‐ESM‐LR model is used to investigate the link between the summer East Atlantic (SEA) pattern and the Pacific‐Caribbean rainfall dipole (PCD), a link that has previously been shown using ERA‐Interim reanalysis data. In the model, it is found that the...
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ftsubggeo:oai:e-docs.geo-leo.de:11858/8641 2023-05-15T17:35:16+02:00 Nonstationarity of the link between the Tropics and the summer East Atlantic pattern Rieke, Ole Greatbatch, Richard J. Gollan, Gereon Rieke, Ole; 1 GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel Kiel Germany Gollan, Gereon; 1 GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel Kiel Germany 2021-02-08 https://doi.org/10.23689/fidgeo-4295 http://resolver.sub.uni-goettingen.de/purl?gldocs-11858/8641 eng eng John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Chichester, UK doi:10.23689/fidgeo-4295 http://resolver.sub.uni-goettingen.de/purl?gldocs-11858/8641 This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. CC-BY ddc:551.5 nonstationarity seasonal prediction summer East Atlantic pattern doc-type:article 2021 ftsubggeo https://doi.org/10.23689/fidgeo-4295 2022-11-09T06:51:38Z A 700‐year pre‐industrial control run with the MPI‐ESM‐LR model is used to investigate the link between the summer East Atlantic (SEA) pattern and the Pacific‐Caribbean rainfall dipole (PCD), a link that has previously been shown using ERA‐Interim reanalysis data. In the model, it is found that the link between the SEA and PCD is present in some multidecadal epochs but not in others. A simple statistical model reproduces this behaviour. In the statistical model, the SEA is represented by a white noise process plus a weak influence from the PCD based on the full 700 years of the model run. The statistical model is relevant to other extratropical modes of variability, for example, the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), that are weakly influenced by the Tropics. It follows that the link between the Tropics and the winter NAO is likely to undergo modulation on multidecadal time scales, as found in some previous studies. The results suggest that any predictability of the SEA, and by implication the NAO, based on tropical rainfall may not be robust and may, in fact, be modulated on multidecadal time scales, with implications for seasonal and decadal prediction systems. The positive phase of the SEA is associated with warm summers in Europe. The figure shows the running correlation in 51 year windows between the SEA index and the corresponding tropical rainfall index in a long pre‐industrial model run. The link between tropical rainfall and the SEA exists only in some decadal epochs, shown by the green shading, implying that predictability of the SEA based on tropical rainfall can be expected to vary on multidecadal time scales. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation GEO-LEOe-docs (FID GEO) Pacific Atmospheric Science Letters 22 5 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
GEO-LEOe-docs (FID GEO) |
op_collection_id |
ftsubggeo |
language |
English |
topic |
ddc:551.5 nonstationarity seasonal prediction summer East Atlantic pattern |
spellingShingle |
ddc:551.5 nonstationarity seasonal prediction summer East Atlantic pattern Rieke, Ole Greatbatch, Richard J. Gollan, Gereon Rieke, Ole; 1 GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel Kiel Germany Gollan, Gereon; 1 GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel Kiel Germany Nonstationarity of the link between the Tropics and the summer East Atlantic pattern |
topic_facet |
ddc:551.5 nonstationarity seasonal prediction summer East Atlantic pattern |
description |
A 700‐year pre‐industrial control run with the MPI‐ESM‐LR model is used to investigate the link between the summer East Atlantic (SEA) pattern and the Pacific‐Caribbean rainfall dipole (PCD), a link that has previously been shown using ERA‐Interim reanalysis data. In the model, it is found that the link between the SEA and PCD is present in some multidecadal epochs but not in others. A simple statistical model reproduces this behaviour. In the statistical model, the SEA is represented by a white noise process plus a weak influence from the PCD based on the full 700 years of the model run. The statistical model is relevant to other extratropical modes of variability, for example, the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), that are weakly influenced by the Tropics. It follows that the link between the Tropics and the winter NAO is likely to undergo modulation on multidecadal time scales, as found in some previous studies. The results suggest that any predictability of the SEA, and by implication the NAO, based on tropical rainfall may not be robust and may, in fact, be modulated on multidecadal time scales, with implications for seasonal and decadal prediction systems. The positive phase of the SEA is associated with warm summers in Europe. The figure shows the running correlation in 51 year windows between the SEA index and the corresponding tropical rainfall index in a long pre‐industrial model run. The link between tropical rainfall and the SEA exists only in some decadal epochs, shown by the green shading, implying that predictability of the SEA based on tropical rainfall can be expected to vary on multidecadal time scales. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Rieke, Ole Greatbatch, Richard J. Gollan, Gereon Rieke, Ole; 1 GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel Kiel Germany Gollan, Gereon; 1 GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel Kiel Germany |
author_facet |
Rieke, Ole Greatbatch, Richard J. Gollan, Gereon Rieke, Ole; 1 GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel Kiel Germany Gollan, Gereon; 1 GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel Kiel Germany |
author_sort |
Rieke, Ole |
title |
Nonstationarity of the link between the Tropics and the summer East Atlantic pattern |
title_short |
Nonstationarity of the link between the Tropics and the summer East Atlantic pattern |
title_full |
Nonstationarity of the link between the Tropics and the summer East Atlantic pattern |
title_fullStr |
Nonstationarity of the link between the Tropics and the summer East Atlantic pattern |
title_full_unstemmed |
Nonstationarity of the link between the Tropics and the summer East Atlantic pattern |
title_sort |
nonstationarity of the link between the tropics and the summer east atlantic pattern |
publisher |
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.23689/fidgeo-4295 http://resolver.sub.uni-goettingen.de/purl?gldocs-11858/8641 |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
doi:10.23689/fidgeo-4295 http://resolver.sub.uni-goettingen.de/purl?gldocs-11858/8641 |
op_rights |
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.23689/fidgeo-4295 |
container_title |
Atmospheric Science Letters |
container_volume |
22 |
container_issue |
5 |
_version_ |
1766134370662350848 |