Synoptic circulation changes over Central Europe from 1900 to 2100: Reanalyses and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6

• Published in: International Journal of Climatology
• Main Authors: Herrera‐Lormendez, Pedro, Mastrantonas, Nikolaos, Douville, Hervé, Hoy, Andreas, Matschullat, Jörg, Mastrantonas, Nikolaos; 1 Interdisciplinary Environmental Research Centre TU Bergakademie Freiberg Freiberg Germany, Douville, Hervé; 3 Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques Météo‐France/CNRS Toulouse France, Hoy, Andreas; 1 Interdisciplinary Environmental Research Centre TU Bergakademie Freiberg Freiberg Germany, Matschullat, Jörg; 1 Interdisciplinary Environmental Research Centre TU Bergakademie Freiberg Freiberg Germany
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 2021
• Subjects: ddc:551.6; anthropogenic climate change; circulation type classification; CMIP6; reanalyses; SSP5‐8.5; North Atlantic
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7481; http://resolver.sub.uni-goettingen.de/purl?gldocs-11858/10171

While the evidence for anthropogenic climate change continues to strengthen, and concerns about severe weather events are increasing, global projections of regional climate change are still uncertain due to model‐dependent changes in large‐scale atmospheric circulation, including over North Atlantic and Europe. Here, the Jenkinson–Collison classification of daily circulation patterns is used to evaluate past and future changes in their seasonal frequencies over Central Europe for the 1900–2100 period. Three reanalyses and eight global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6, were used based on daily mean sea‐level pressure data. Best agreement in deriving relative frequencies of the synoptic types was found between the reanalyses. Global models can generally capture the interannual variability of circulation patterns and their climatological state, especially for the less frequent synoptic types. Based on historical data and the shared socioeconomic pathway 5 scenario, the evaluated trends show more robust signals during summer, given their lesser internal variability. Increasing frequencies were found for circulation types characterized by weak pressure gradients, mainly at the expense of decreasing frequencies of westerlies. Our findings indicate that given a high‐emission scenario, these signals will likely emerge from past climate variability towards the mid‐21st century for most altered circulation patterns. Daily synoptic circulation patterns are derived using the Jenkinson–Collinson automated classification over Central Europe to evaluate past and future changes in their temporal frequencies. Reanalyses and eight global climate models from the CMIP6 were used based on the historical experiment and a high‐emission scenario. More robust signals were found during the summer season leading to emerging changes towards the mid‐21st century. H2020 Marie Skłodowska‐Curie Actions http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100010665 EU International Training Network (ITN) Climate Advanced ...