| Summary: | This study investigates how the estimated thickening of the active layer will affectthe soil organic carbon in permafrost soils. The focus lies on estimating how muchof the upper permafrost soil organic carbon will be affected by the active layerdeepening due to global warming, on what timescale the deepening will take placeand if the estimated changes differ depending on the extent of permafrost in theregion. A model made in a Geographic Information System (GIS) combines datasetsfrom The Northern Circumpolar Soil Carbon Database, field data of soil organiccarbon content (SOCC) in different permafrost soil horizons in the Usa basin anddata of recent and future active layer depth from a spatially distributed permafrostdynamics model in the Pechora River Basin. The model shows that in 1980, 75% ofthe available 0–100 cm Gelisol soil organic carbon mass (SOCM) has affected byseasonal thawing. In 2050 the proportion is increased to 86% and by 2090 almostthe whole study area has an active layer deeper than 1 meter (98%). This indicatesan increase from approximately 0.64% to 0.84% of the total 1–100 cm SOCM in thenorthern permafrost region. The change is more gradual in the isolated and thesporadic permafrost zones and more abrupt in the continuous and discontinuous regions.
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