Risk Assessment for Key Socio-Economic and Ecological Species in a Sub-Arctic Marine Ecosystem Under Combined Ocean Acidification and Warming
The Arctic may be particularly vulnerable to the consequences of both ocean acidification (OA) and global warming, given the faster pace of these processes in comparison with global average speeds. Here, we use the Atlantis ecosystem model to assess how the trophic network of marine fishes and inver...
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Stockholms universitet, Institutionen för naturgeografi
2022
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ftstockholmuniv:oai:DiVA.org:su-197638 2023-06-11T04:09:15+02:00 Risk Assessment for Key Socio-Economic and Ecological Species in a Sub-Arctic Marine Ecosystem Under Combined Ocean Acidification and Warming Oostdijk, Maartje Sturludóttir, Erla Santos, Maria J. 2022 application/pdf http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-197638 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-021-00705-w eng eng Stockholms universitet, Institutionen för naturgeografi University of Iceland, Iceland Ecosystems, 1432-9840, 2022, 25, s. 1117-1134 orcid:0000-0002-8995-9597 orcid:0000-0002-6558-7477 http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-197638 doi:10.1007/s10021-021-00705-w ISI:000702284900002 Scopus 2-s2.0-85115835106 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Ecology Environmental Chemistry Evolution Behavior and Systematics Ekologi Article in journal info:eu-repo/semantics/article text 2022 ftstockholmuniv https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-021-00705-w 2023-04-26T22:30:14Z The Arctic may be particularly vulnerable to the consequences of both ocean acidification (OA) and global warming, given the faster pace of these processes in comparison with global average speeds. Here, we use the Atlantis ecosystem model to assess how the trophic network of marine fishes and invertebrates in the Icelandic waters is responding to the combined pressures of OA and warming. We develop an approach where we first identify species by their economic (catch value), social (number of participants in fisheries), or ecological (keystone species) importance. We then use literature-determined ranges of sensitivity to OA and warming for different species and functional groups in the Icelandic waters to parametrize model runs for different scenarios of warming and OA. We found divergent species responses to warming and acidification levels; (mainly) planktonic groups and forage fish benefited while (mainly) benthic groups and predatory fish decreased under warming and acidification scenarios. Assuming conservative harvest rates for the largest catch-value species, Atlantic cod, we see that the population is projected to remain stable under even the harshest acidification and warming scenario. Further, for the scenarios where the model projects reductions in biomass of Atlantic cod, other species in the ecosystem increase, likely due to a reduction in competition and predation. These results highlight the interdependencies of multiple global change drivers and their cascading effects on trophic organization, and the continued high abundance of an important species from a socio-economic perspective in the Icelandic fisheries. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic atlantic cod Global warming Ocean acidification Stockholm University: Publications (DiVA) Arctic Ecosystems 25 5 1117 1134 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Stockholm University: Publications (DiVA) |
op_collection_id |
ftstockholmuniv |
language |
English |
topic |
Ecology Environmental Chemistry Evolution Behavior and Systematics Ekologi |
spellingShingle |
Ecology Environmental Chemistry Evolution Behavior and Systematics Ekologi Oostdijk, Maartje Sturludóttir, Erla Santos, Maria J. Risk Assessment for Key Socio-Economic and Ecological Species in a Sub-Arctic Marine Ecosystem Under Combined Ocean Acidification and Warming |
topic_facet |
Ecology Environmental Chemistry Evolution Behavior and Systematics Ekologi |
description |
The Arctic may be particularly vulnerable to the consequences of both ocean acidification (OA) and global warming, given the faster pace of these processes in comparison with global average speeds. Here, we use the Atlantis ecosystem model to assess how the trophic network of marine fishes and invertebrates in the Icelandic waters is responding to the combined pressures of OA and warming. We develop an approach where we first identify species by their economic (catch value), social (number of participants in fisheries), or ecological (keystone species) importance. We then use literature-determined ranges of sensitivity to OA and warming for different species and functional groups in the Icelandic waters to parametrize model runs for different scenarios of warming and OA. We found divergent species responses to warming and acidification levels; (mainly) planktonic groups and forage fish benefited while (mainly) benthic groups and predatory fish decreased under warming and acidification scenarios. Assuming conservative harvest rates for the largest catch-value species, Atlantic cod, we see that the population is projected to remain stable under even the harshest acidification and warming scenario. Further, for the scenarios where the model projects reductions in biomass of Atlantic cod, other species in the ecosystem increase, likely due to a reduction in competition and predation. These results highlight the interdependencies of multiple global change drivers and their cascading effects on trophic organization, and the continued high abundance of an important species from a socio-economic perspective in the Icelandic fisheries. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Oostdijk, Maartje Sturludóttir, Erla Santos, Maria J. |
author_facet |
Oostdijk, Maartje Sturludóttir, Erla Santos, Maria J. |
author_sort |
Oostdijk, Maartje |
title |
Risk Assessment for Key Socio-Economic and Ecological Species in a Sub-Arctic Marine Ecosystem Under Combined Ocean Acidification and Warming |
title_short |
Risk Assessment for Key Socio-Economic and Ecological Species in a Sub-Arctic Marine Ecosystem Under Combined Ocean Acidification and Warming |
title_full |
Risk Assessment for Key Socio-Economic and Ecological Species in a Sub-Arctic Marine Ecosystem Under Combined Ocean Acidification and Warming |
title_fullStr |
Risk Assessment for Key Socio-Economic and Ecological Species in a Sub-Arctic Marine Ecosystem Under Combined Ocean Acidification and Warming |
title_full_unstemmed |
Risk Assessment for Key Socio-Economic and Ecological Species in a Sub-Arctic Marine Ecosystem Under Combined Ocean Acidification and Warming |
title_sort |
risk assessment for key socio-economic and ecological species in a sub-arctic marine ecosystem under combined ocean acidification and warming |
publisher |
Stockholms universitet, Institutionen för naturgeografi |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-197638 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-021-00705-w |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic atlantic cod Global warming Ocean acidification |
genre_facet |
Arctic atlantic cod Global warming Ocean acidification |
op_relation |
Ecosystems, 1432-9840, 2022, 25, s. 1117-1134 orcid:0000-0002-8995-9597 orcid:0000-0002-6558-7477 http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-197638 doi:10.1007/s10021-021-00705-w ISI:000702284900002 Scopus 2-s2.0-85115835106 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-021-00705-w |
container_title |
Ecosystems |
container_volume |
25 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
1117 |
op_container_end_page |
1134 |
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1768383019103551488 |