Sensitivity of the Antarctic ice sheets to the warming of marine isotope substage 11c
Studying the response of the Antarctic ice sheets during periods when climate conditions were similar to the present can provide important insights into current observed changes and help identify natural drivers of ice sheet retreat. In this context, the marine isotope substage 11c (MIS11c) intergla...
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Stockholms universitet, Institutionen för naturgeografi
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ftstockholmuniv:oai:DiVA.org:su-191335 2023-05-15T13:56:08+02:00 Sensitivity of the Antarctic ice sheets to the warming of marine isotope substage 11c Mas e Braga, Martim Bernales, Jorge Prange, Matthias Stroeven, Arjen P. Rogozhina, Irina 2021 application/pdf http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-191335 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-459-2021 eng eng Stockholms universitet, Institutionen för naturgeografi The Cryosphere, 1994-0416, 2021, 15:1, s. 459-478 orcid:0000-0002-4843-1876 orcid:0000-0001-8812-2253 http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-191335 doi:10.5194/tc-15-459-2021 ISI:000614266000004 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Earth and Related Environmental Sciences Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap Article in journal info:eu-repo/semantics/article text 2021 ftstockholmuniv https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-459-2021 2023-02-23T21:44:18Z Studying the response of the Antarctic ice sheets during periods when climate conditions were similar to the present can provide important insights into current observed changes and help identify natural drivers of ice sheet retreat. In this context, the marine isotope substage 11c (MIS11c) interglacial offers a suitable scenario, given that during its later portion orbital parameters were close to our current interglacial. Ice core data indicate that warmer-than-present temperatures lasted for longer than during other interglacials. However, the response of the Antarctic ice sheets and their contribution to sea level rise remain unclear. We explore the dynamics of the Antarctic ice sheets during this period using a numerical ice sheet model forced by MIS11c climate conditions derived from climate model outputs scaled by three glaciological and one sedimentary proxy records of ice volume. Our results indicate that the East and West Antarctic ice sheets contributed 4.0-8.2 m to the MIS11c sea level rise. In the case of a West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse, which is the most probable scenario according to far-field sea level reconstructions, the range is reduced to 6.7-8.2 m independently of the choices of external sea level forcing and millennialscale climate variability. Within this latter range, the main source of uncertainty arises from the sensitivity of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to a choice of initial ice sheet configuration. We found that the warmer regional climate signal captured by Antarctic ice cores during peak MIS11c is crucial to reproduce the contribution expected from Antarctica during the recorded global sea level highstand. This climate signal translates to a modest threshold of 0.4 degrees C oceanic warming at intermediate depths, which leads to a collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet if sustained for at least 4000 years. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica ice core Ice Sheet The Cryosphere Stockholm University: Publications (DiVA) Antarctic The Antarctic West Antarctic Ice Sheet East Antarctic Ice Sheet The Cryosphere 15 1 459 478 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Stockholm University: Publications (DiVA) |
op_collection_id |
ftstockholmuniv |
language |
English |
topic |
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap |
spellingShingle |
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap Mas e Braga, Martim Bernales, Jorge Prange, Matthias Stroeven, Arjen P. Rogozhina, Irina Sensitivity of the Antarctic ice sheets to the warming of marine isotope substage 11c |
topic_facet |
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap |
description |
Studying the response of the Antarctic ice sheets during periods when climate conditions were similar to the present can provide important insights into current observed changes and help identify natural drivers of ice sheet retreat. In this context, the marine isotope substage 11c (MIS11c) interglacial offers a suitable scenario, given that during its later portion orbital parameters were close to our current interglacial. Ice core data indicate that warmer-than-present temperatures lasted for longer than during other interglacials. However, the response of the Antarctic ice sheets and their contribution to sea level rise remain unclear. We explore the dynamics of the Antarctic ice sheets during this period using a numerical ice sheet model forced by MIS11c climate conditions derived from climate model outputs scaled by three glaciological and one sedimentary proxy records of ice volume. Our results indicate that the East and West Antarctic ice sheets contributed 4.0-8.2 m to the MIS11c sea level rise. In the case of a West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse, which is the most probable scenario according to far-field sea level reconstructions, the range is reduced to 6.7-8.2 m independently of the choices of external sea level forcing and millennialscale climate variability. Within this latter range, the main source of uncertainty arises from the sensitivity of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to a choice of initial ice sheet configuration. We found that the warmer regional climate signal captured by Antarctic ice cores during peak MIS11c is crucial to reproduce the contribution expected from Antarctica during the recorded global sea level highstand. This climate signal translates to a modest threshold of 0.4 degrees C oceanic warming at intermediate depths, which leads to a collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet if sustained for at least 4000 years. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Mas e Braga, Martim Bernales, Jorge Prange, Matthias Stroeven, Arjen P. Rogozhina, Irina |
author_facet |
Mas e Braga, Martim Bernales, Jorge Prange, Matthias Stroeven, Arjen P. Rogozhina, Irina |
author_sort |
Mas e Braga, Martim |
title |
Sensitivity of the Antarctic ice sheets to the warming of marine isotope substage 11c |
title_short |
Sensitivity of the Antarctic ice sheets to the warming of marine isotope substage 11c |
title_full |
Sensitivity of the Antarctic ice sheets to the warming of marine isotope substage 11c |
title_fullStr |
Sensitivity of the Antarctic ice sheets to the warming of marine isotope substage 11c |
title_full_unstemmed |
Sensitivity of the Antarctic ice sheets to the warming of marine isotope substage 11c |
title_sort |
sensitivity of the antarctic ice sheets to the warming of marine isotope substage 11c |
publisher |
Stockholms universitet, Institutionen för naturgeografi |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-191335 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-459-2021 |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic West Antarctic Ice Sheet East Antarctic Ice Sheet |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic West Antarctic Ice Sheet East Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica ice core Ice Sheet The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica ice core Ice Sheet The Cryosphere |
op_relation |
The Cryosphere, 1994-0416, 2021, 15:1, s. 459-478 orcid:0000-0002-4843-1876 orcid:0000-0001-8812-2253 http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-191335 doi:10.5194/tc-15-459-2021 ISI:000614266000004 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-459-2021 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
15 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
459 |
op_container_end_page |
478 |
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1766263419674034176 |