Arctic sea-ice variability is primarily driven by atmospheric temperature fluctuations
The anthropogenically forced decline of Arctic sea ice is superimposed on strong internal variability. Possible drivers for this variability include fluctuations in surface albedo, clouds and water vapour, surface winds and poleward atmospheric and oceanic energy transport, but their relative contri...
Published in: | Nature Geoscience |
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Stockholms universitet, Meteorologiska institutionen (MISU)
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Online Access: | http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-170115 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0363-1 |
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ftstockholmuniv:oai:DiVA.org:su-170115 2023-05-15T13:11:09+02:00 Arctic sea-ice variability is primarily driven by atmospheric temperature fluctuations Olonscheck, Dirk Mauritsen, Thorsten Notz, Dirk 2019 application/pdf http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-170115 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0363-1 eng eng Stockholms universitet, Meteorologiska institutionen (MISU) Nature Geoscience, 1752-0894, 2019, 12:6, s. 430-434 orcid:0000-0003-1418-4077 orcid:0000-0003-0365-5654 http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-170115 doi:10.1038/s41561-019-0363-1 ISI:000469459600009 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Earth and Related Environmental Sciences Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap Article in journal info:eu-repo/semantics/article text 2019 ftstockholmuniv https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0363-1 2023-02-23T21:43:41Z The anthropogenically forced decline of Arctic sea ice is superimposed on strong internal variability. Possible drivers for this variability include fluctuations in surface albedo, clouds and water vapour, surface winds and poleward atmospheric and oceanic energy transport, but their relative contributions have not been quantified. By isolating the impact of the individual drivers in an Earth system model, we here demonstrate that internal variability of sea ice is primarily caused directly by atmospheric temperature fluctuations. The other drivers together explain only 25% of sea-ice variability. The dominating impact of atmospheric temperature fluctuations on sea ice is consistent across observations, reanalyses and simulations from global climate models. Such atmospheric temperature fluctuations occur due to variations in moist-static energy transport or local ocean heat release to the atmosphere. The fact that atmospheric temperature fluctuations are the key driver for sea-ice variability limits prospects of interannual predictions of sea ice, and suggests that observed record lows in Arctic sea-ice area are a direct response to an unusually warm atmosphere. Article in Journal/Newspaper albedo Arctic Sea ice Stockholm University: Publications (DiVA) Arctic Nature Geoscience 12 6 430 434 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Stockholm University: Publications (DiVA) |
op_collection_id |
ftstockholmuniv |
language |
English |
topic |
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap |
spellingShingle |
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap Olonscheck, Dirk Mauritsen, Thorsten Notz, Dirk Arctic sea-ice variability is primarily driven by atmospheric temperature fluctuations |
topic_facet |
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap |
description |
The anthropogenically forced decline of Arctic sea ice is superimposed on strong internal variability. Possible drivers for this variability include fluctuations in surface albedo, clouds and water vapour, surface winds and poleward atmospheric and oceanic energy transport, but their relative contributions have not been quantified. By isolating the impact of the individual drivers in an Earth system model, we here demonstrate that internal variability of sea ice is primarily caused directly by atmospheric temperature fluctuations. The other drivers together explain only 25% of sea-ice variability. The dominating impact of atmospheric temperature fluctuations on sea ice is consistent across observations, reanalyses and simulations from global climate models. Such atmospheric temperature fluctuations occur due to variations in moist-static energy transport or local ocean heat release to the atmosphere. The fact that atmospheric temperature fluctuations are the key driver for sea-ice variability limits prospects of interannual predictions of sea ice, and suggests that observed record lows in Arctic sea-ice area are a direct response to an unusually warm atmosphere. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Olonscheck, Dirk Mauritsen, Thorsten Notz, Dirk |
author_facet |
Olonscheck, Dirk Mauritsen, Thorsten Notz, Dirk |
author_sort |
Olonscheck, Dirk |
title |
Arctic sea-ice variability is primarily driven by atmospheric temperature fluctuations |
title_short |
Arctic sea-ice variability is primarily driven by atmospheric temperature fluctuations |
title_full |
Arctic sea-ice variability is primarily driven by atmospheric temperature fluctuations |
title_fullStr |
Arctic sea-ice variability is primarily driven by atmospheric temperature fluctuations |
title_full_unstemmed |
Arctic sea-ice variability is primarily driven by atmospheric temperature fluctuations |
title_sort |
arctic sea-ice variability is primarily driven by atmospheric temperature fluctuations |
publisher |
Stockholms universitet, Meteorologiska institutionen (MISU) |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-170115 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0363-1 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
albedo Arctic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
albedo Arctic Sea ice |
op_relation |
Nature Geoscience, 1752-0894, 2019, 12:6, s. 430-434 orcid:0000-0003-1418-4077 orcid:0000-0003-0365-5654 http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-170115 doi:10.1038/s41561-019-0363-1 ISI:000469459600009 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0363-1 |
container_title |
Nature Geoscience |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
430 |
op_container_end_page |
434 |
_version_ |
1766246126211563520 |