Characterizing uncertainty in expert assessments
Large-scale assessments have become an important vehicle for organizing, interpreting, and presenting scientific information relevant to environmental policy. At the same time, identifying and evaluating scientific uncertainty with respect to the very questions these assessments were designed to add...
Published in: | Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change |
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Online Access: | https://digitalcommons.csbsju.edu/sociology_pubs/24 https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.135 |
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ftstjohnsunivcsb:oai:digitalcommons.csbsju.edu:sociology_pubs-1026 2023-05-15T14:01:02+02:00 Characterizing uncertainty in expert assessments O'Reilly, Jessica Brysse, Keynyn Oppenheimer, Michael Oreskes, Naomi 2011-01-01T08:00:00Z https://digitalcommons.csbsju.edu/sociology_pubs/24 https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.135 unknown DigitalCommons@CSB/SJU https://digitalcommons.csbsju.edu/sociology_pubs/24 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/wcc.135 Sociology Faculty Publications Anthropology Environmental Studies Social and Behavioral Sciences Sociology text 2011 ftstjohnsunivcsb https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.135 2022-01-06T11:10:33Z Large-scale assessments have become an important vehicle for organizing, interpreting, and presenting scientific information relevant to environmental policy. At the same time, identifying and evaluating scientific uncertainty with respect to the very questions these assessments were designed to address has become more difficult, as ever more complex problems involving greater portions of the Earth system and longer timescales have emerged at the science–policy interface. In this article, we explore expert judgments about uncertainty in two recent cases: the assessment of stratospheric ozone depletion, and the assessment of the response of the West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS) to global warming. These assessments were fairly adept at characterizing one type of uncertainty in models (parameter uncertainty), but faced much greater difficulty in dealing with structural model uncertainty, sometimes entirely avoiding grappling with it. In the absence of viable models, innovative approaches were developed in the ozone case for consolidating information about highly uncertain future outcomes, whereas little such progress has been made thus far in the case of WAIS. Both cases illustrate the problem of expert disagreement, suggesting that future assessments need to develop improved approaches to representing internal conflicts of judgment, in order to produce a more complete evaluation of uncertainty. Text Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet College of Saint Benedict and Saint John’s University: DigitalCommons@CSB/SJU Antarctic West Antarctic Ice Sheet Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 2 5 728 743 |
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Open Polar |
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College of Saint Benedict and Saint John’s University: DigitalCommons@CSB/SJU |
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ftstjohnsunivcsb |
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topic |
Anthropology Environmental Studies Social and Behavioral Sciences Sociology |
spellingShingle |
Anthropology Environmental Studies Social and Behavioral Sciences Sociology O'Reilly, Jessica Brysse, Keynyn Oppenheimer, Michael Oreskes, Naomi Characterizing uncertainty in expert assessments |
topic_facet |
Anthropology Environmental Studies Social and Behavioral Sciences Sociology |
description |
Large-scale assessments have become an important vehicle for organizing, interpreting, and presenting scientific information relevant to environmental policy. At the same time, identifying and evaluating scientific uncertainty with respect to the very questions these assessments were designed to address has become more difficult, as ever more complex problems involving greater portions of the Earth system and longer timescales have emerged at the science–policy interface. In this article, we explore expert judgments about uncertainty in two recent cases: the assessment of stratospheric ozone depletion, and the assessment of the response of the West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS) to global warming. These assessments were fairly adept at characterizing one type of uncertainty in models (parameter uncertainty), but faced much greater difficulty in dealing with structural model uncertainty, sometimes entirely avoiding grappling with it. In the absence of viable models, innovative approaches were developed in the ozone case for consolidating information about highly uncertain future outcomes, whereas little such progress has been made thus far in the case of WAIS. Both cases illustrate the problem of expert disagreement, suggesting that future assessments need to develop improved approaches to representing internal conflicts of judgment, in order to produce a more complete evaluation of uncertainty. |
format |
Text |
author |
O'Reilly, Jessica Brysse, Keynyn Oppenheimer, Michael Oreskes, Naomi |
author_facet |
O'Reilly, Jessica Brysse, Keynyn Oppenheimer, Michael Oreskes, Naomi |
author_sort |
O'Reilly, Jessica |
title |
Characterizing uncertainty in expert assessments |
title_short |
Characterizing uncertainty in expert assessments |
title_full |
Characterizing uncertainty in expert assessments |
title_fullStr |
Characterizing uncertainty in expert assessments |
title_full_unstemmed |
Characterizing uncertainty in expert assessments |
title_sort |
characterizing uncertainty in expert assessments |
publisher |
DigitalCommons@CSB/SJU |
publishDate |
2011 |
url |
https://digitalcommons.csbsju.edu/sociology_pubs/24 https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.135 |
geographic |
Antarctic West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
op_source |
Sociology Faculty Publications |
op_relation |
https://digitalcommons.csbsju.edu/sociology_pubs/24 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/wcc.135 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.135 |
container_title |
Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change |
container_volume |
2 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
728 |
op_container_end_page |
743 |
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1766270476371361792 |