Climate change prediction: Erring on the side of least drama?
Over the past two decades, skeptics of the reality and significance of anthropogenic climate change have frequently accused climate scientists of ‘‘alarmism’’: of over-interpreting or overreacting to evidence of human impacts on the climate system. However, the available evidence suggests that scien...
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ftstjohnsunivcsb:oai:digitalcommons.csbsju.edu:sociology_pubs-1025 2023-05-15T14:01:02+02:00 Climate change prediction: Erring on the side of least drama? Brysse, Keynyn Oreskes, Naomi O'Reilly, Jessica Oppenheimer, Michael 2013-01-01T08:00:00Z https://digitalcommons.csbsju.edu/sociology_pubs/25 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.10.008 unknown DigitalCommons@CSB/SJU https://digitalcommons.csbsju.edu/sociology_pubs/25 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.10.008 Sociology Faculty Publications Anthropology Environmental Studies Social and Behavioral Sciences Sociology text 2013 ftstjohnsunivcsb https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.10.008 2022-01-06T11:10:33Z Over the past two decades, skeptics of the reality and significance of anthropogenic climate change have frequently accused climate scientists of ‘‘alarmism’’: of over-interpreting or overreacting to evidence of human impacts on the climate system. However, the available evidence suggests that scientists have in fact been conservative in their projections of the impacts of climate change. In particular, we discuss recent studies showing that at least some of the key attributes of global warming from increased atmospheric greenhouse gases have been under-predicted, particularly in IPCC assessments of the physical science, by Working Group I. We also note the less frequent manifestation of over-prediction of key characteristics of climate in such assessments. We suggest, therefore, that scientists are biased not toward alarmism but rather the reverse: toward cautious estimates, where we define caution as erring on the side of less rather than more alarming predictions. We call this tendency ‘‘erring on the side of least drama (ESLD).’’ We explore some cases of ESLD at work, including predictions of Arctic ozone depletion and the possible disintegration of the West Antarctic ice sheet, and suggest some possible causes of this directional bias, including adherence to the scientific norms of restraint, objectivity, skepticism, rationality, dispassion, and moderation. We conclude with suggestions for further work to identify and explore ESLD. Text Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Climate change Global warming Ice Sheet College of Saint Benedict and Saint John’s University: DigitalCommons@CSB/SJU Antarctic Arctic West Antarctic Ice Sheet Global Environmental Change 23 1 327 337 |
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Open Polar |
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College of Saint Benedict and Saint John’s University: DigitalCommons@CSB/SJU |
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ftstjohnsunivcsb |
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unknown |
topic |
Anthropology Environmental Studies Social and Behavioral Sciences Sociology |
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Anthropology Environmental Studies Social and Behavioral Sciences Sociology Brysse, Keynyn Oreskes, Naomi O'Reilly, Jessica Oppenheimer, Michael Climate change prediction: Erring on the side of least drama? |
topic_facet |
Anthropology Environmental Studies Social and Behavioral Sciences Sociology |
description |
Over the past two decades, skeptics of the reality and significance of anthropogenic climate change have frequently accused climate scientists of ‘‘alarmism’’: of over-interpreting or overreacting to evidence of human impacts on the climate system. However, the available evidence suggests that scientists have in fact been conservative in their projections of the impacts of climate change. In particular, we discuss recent studies showing that at least some of the key attributes of global warming from increased atmospheric greenhouse gases have been under-predicted, particularly in IPCC assessments of the physical science, by Working Group I. We also note the less frequent manifestation of over-prediction of key characteristics of climate in such assessments. We suggest, therefore, that scientists are biased not toward alarmism but rather the reverse: toward cautious estimates, where we define caution as erring on the side of less rather than more alarming predictions. We call this tendency ‘‘erring on the side of least drama (ESLD).’’ We explore some cases of ESLD at work, including predictions of Arctic ozone depletion and the possible disintegration of the West Antarctic ice sheet, and suggest some possible causes of this directional bias, including adherence to the scientific norms of restraint, objectivity, skepticism, rationality, dispassion, and moderation. We conclude with suggestions for further work to identify and explore ESLD. |
format |
Text |
author |
Brysse, Keynyn Oreskes, Naomi O'Reilly, Jessica Oppenheimer, Michael |
author_facet |
Brysse, Keynyn Oreskes, Naomi O'Reilly, Jessica Oppenheimer, Michael |
author_sort |
Brysse, Keynyn |
title |
Climate change prediction: Erring on the side of least drama? |
title_short |
Climate change prediction: Erring on the side of least drama? |
title_full |
Climate change prediction: Erring on the side of least drama? |
title_fullStr |
Climate change prediction: Erring on the side of least drama? |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate change prediction: Erring on the side of least drama? |
title_sort |
climate change prediction: erring on the side of least drama? |
publisher |
DigitalCommons@CSB/SJU |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://digitalcommons.csbsju.edu/sociology_pubs/25 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.10.008 |
geographic |
Antarctic Arctic West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Arctic West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Climate change Global warming Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Climate change Global warming Ice Sheet |
op_source |
Sociology Faculty Publications |
op_relation |
https://digitalcommons.csbsju.edu/sociology_pubs/25 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.10.008 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.10.008 |
container_title |
Global Environmental Change |
container_volume |
23 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
327 |
op_container_end_page |
337 |
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1766270476847415296 |