Harbour seal (Phoca vitulina) abundance within the Firth of Tay and Eden Estuary, Scotland : recent trends and extrapolation to extinction
Aerial surveys were funded by SNH and NERC. 1. Aerial surveys have detected alarming declines in counts of harbour seals in several regions across Scotland. 2. Demographic data and simple models were used to examine the recent decline in the numbers of harbour seals counted in one population within...
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ftstandrewserep:oai:research-repository.st-andrews.ac.uk:10023/9953 2024-04-21T08:04:14+00:00 Harbour seal (Phoca vitulina) abundance within the Firth of Tay and Eden Estuary, Scotland : recent trends and extrapolation to extinction Hanson, Nora Thompson, Dave Duck, Callan Baxter, John Lonergan, Mike University of St Andrews. School of Biology University of St Andrews. Sea Mammal Research Unit University of St Andrews. Marine Alliance for Science & Technology Scotland University of St Andrews. Scottish Oceans Institute 2016-12-08 14 869637 application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/10023/9953 https://doi.org/10.1002/aqc.2609 eng eng Aquatic Conservation: Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems 240327640 3348de89-386e-4abc-8da8-9dd47e0d29fe 84949682025 000394898200020 Hanson , N , Thompson , D , Duck , C , Baxter , J & Lonergan , M 2017 , ' Harbour seal ( Phoca vitulina ) abundance within the Firth of Tay and Eden Estuary, Scotland : recent trends and extrapolation to extinction ' , Aquatic Conservation: Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems , vol. 27 , no. 1 , pp. 268-281 . https://doi.org/10.1002/aqc.2609 1052-7613 ORCID: /0000-0002-0017-8963/work/30346973 ORCID: /0000-0003-1546-2876/work/56862221 https://hdl.handle.net/10023/9953 doi:10.1002/aqc.2609 Coastal Littoral Monitoring Special Area of Conservation Conservation evaluation Mammals GC Oceanography QH301 Biology NDAS GC QH301 Journal article 2016 ftstandrewserep https://doi.org/10.1002/aqc.2609 2024-03-27T15:07:39Z Aerial surveys were funded by SNH and NERC. 1. Aerial surveys have detected alarming declines in counts of harbour seals in several regions across Scotland. 2. Demographic data and simple models were used to examine the recent decline in the numbers of harbour seals counted in one population within a Special Area of Conservation (SAC) on the east coast of Scotland. The models suggest that the continuation of current trends would result in the species effectively disappearing from this area within the next 20 years. 3. While the cause of the decline is unknown, it must be reducing adult survival because the high rate of decline cannot be wholly accounted for by changes in other demographic parameters. 4. Recovery of the population to the abundance recorded at the time the SAC was designated (2005) is likely to take at least 40 years, even if the cause of the decline is immediately identified and removed. 5. The models suggest that partial removal of the cause can have only limited benefits to population recovery, and there are unlikely to be any long-term benefits from introducing or reintroducing additional individuals while the underlying problem persists. Therefore, if the population of harbour seals in this area is to recover it is essential that the sources of the increased mortality are identified and measures are put in place to manage these. Peer reviewed Article in Journal/Newspaper harbour seal Phoca vitulina University of St Andrews: Digital Research Repository Aquatic Conservation: Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems 27 1 268 281 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of St Andrews: Digital Research Repository |
op_collection_id |
ftstandrewserep |
language |
English |
topic |
Coastal Littoral Monitoring Special Area of Conservation Conservation evaluation Mammals GC Oceanography QH301 Biology NDAS GC QH301 |
spellingShingle |
Coastal Littoral Monitoring Special Area of Conservation Conservation evaluation Mammals GC Oceanography QH301 Biology NDAS GC QH301 Hanson, Nora Thompson, Dave Duck, Callan Baxter, John Lonergan, Mike Harbour seal (Phoca vitulina) abundance within the Firth of Tay and Eden Estuary, Scotland : recent trends and extrapolation to extinction |
topic_facet |
Coastal Littoral Monitoring Special Area of Conservation Conservation evaluation Mammals GC Oceanography QH301 Biology NDAS GC QH301 |
description |
Aerial surveys were funded by SNH and NERC. 1. Aerial surveys have detected alarming declines in counts of harbour seals in several regions across Scotland. 2. Demographic data and simple models were used to examine the recent decline in the numbers of harbour seals counted in one population within a Special Area of Conservation (SAC) on the east coast of Scotland. The models suggest that the continuation of current trends would result in the species effectively disappearing from this area within the next 20 years. 3. While the cause of the decline is unknown, it must be reducing adult survival because the high rate of decline cannot be wholly accounted for by changes in other demographic parameters. 4. Recovery of the population to the abundance recorded at the time the SAC was designated (2005) is likely to take at least 40 years, even if the cause of the decline is immediately identified and removed. 5. The models suggest that partial removal of the cause can have only limited benefits to population recovery, and there are unlikely to be any long-term benefits from introducing or reintroducing additional individuals while the underlying problem persists. Therefore, if the population of harbour seals in this area is to recover it is essential that the sources of the increased mortality are identified and measures are put in place to manage these. Peer reviewed |
author2 |
University of St Andrews. School of Biology University of St Andrews. Sea Mammal Research Unit University of St Andrews. Marine Alliance for Science & Technology Scotland University of St Andrews. Scottish Oceans Institute |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hanson, Nora Thompson, Dave Duck, Callan Baxter, John Lonergan, Mike |
author_facet |
Hanson, Nora Thompson, Dave Duck, Callan Baxter, John Lonergan, Mike |
author_sort |
Hanson, Nora |
title |
Harbour seal (Phoca vitulina) abundance within the Firth of Tay and Eden Estuary, Scotland : recent trends and extrapolation to extinction |
title_short |
Harbour seal (Phoca vitulina) abundance within the Firth of Tay and Eden Estuary, Scotland : recent trends and extrapolation to extinction |
title_full |
Harbour seal (Phoca vitulina) abundance within the Firth of Tay and Eden Estuary, Scotland : recent trends and extrapolation to extinction |
title_fullStr |
Harbour seal (Phoca vitulina) abundance within the Firth of Tay and Eden Estuary, Scotland : recent trends and extrapolation to extinction |
title_full_unstemmed |
Harbour seal (Phoca vitulina) abundance within the Firth of Tay and Eden Estuary, Scotland : recent trends and extrapolation to extinction |
title_sort |
harbour seal (phoca vitulina) abundance within the firth of tay and eden estuary, scotland : recent trends and extrapolation to extinction |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/10023/9953 https://doi.org/10.1002/aqc.2609 |
genre |
harbour seal Phoca vitulina |
genre_facet |
harbour seal Phoca vitulina |
op_relation |
Aquatic Conservation: Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems 240327640 3348de89-386e-4abc-8da8-9dd47e0d29fe 84949682025 000394898200020 Hanson , N , Thompson , D , Duck , C , Baxter , J & Lonergan , M 2017 , ' Harbour seal ( Phoca vitulina ) abundance within the Firth of Tay and Eden Estuary, Scotland : recent trends and extrapolation to extinction ' , Aquatic Conservation: Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems , vol. 27 , no. 1 , pp. 268-281 . https://doi.org/10.1002/aqc.2609 1052-7613 ORCID: /0000-0002-0017-8963/work/30346973 ORCID: /0000-0003-1546-2876/work/56862221 https://hdl.handle.net/10023/9953 doi:10.1002/aqc.2609 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/aqc.2609 |
container_title |
Aquatic Conservation: Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems |
container_volume |
27 |
container_issue |
1 |
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268 |
op_container_end_page |
281 |
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