Expert elicitation of seasonal abundance of North Atlantic right whales Eubalaena glacialis in the mid-Atlantic
This work was supported in part by US Office of Naval Research (ONR) grants to E.F.: N00014-09-1-0896 at University of California, Santa Barbara and N00014-12-1-0274 at University of California, Davis. This work was also supported by ONR grant N000141210286 to the University of St Andrews. In additi...
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ftstandrewserep:oai:research-repository.st-andrews.ac.uk:10023/7921 2023-07-02T03:32:10+02:00 Expert elicitation of seasonal abundance of North Atlantic right whales Eubalaena glacialis in the mid-Atlantic Oedekoven, Cornelia Sabrina Fleishman, Erica Hamilton, Philip Clark, James S. Schick, Robert Schilling Office of Naval Research University of St Andrews. School of Mathematics and Statistics University of St Andrews. Centre for Research into Ecological & Environmental Modelling 2015-12-22T15:10:04Z application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/10023/7921 https://doi.org/10.3354/esr00699 eng eng Endangered Species Research Oedekoven , C S , Fleishman , E , Hamilton , P , Clark , J S & Schick , R S 2015 , ' Expert elicitation of seasonal abundance of North Atlantic right whales Eubalaena glacialis in the mid-Atlantic ' , Endangered Species Research , vol. 29 , no. 1 , pp. 51-58 . https://doi.org/10.3354/esr00699 1863-5407 PURE: 218429522 PURE UUID: d71982c8-94c3-490a-a2cc-8bb09a992284 Scopus: 84954349920 WOS: 000365699600005 ORCID: /0000-0002-5610-7814/work/61978850 http://hdl.handle.net/10023/7921 https://doi.org/10.3354/esr00699 N00014-12-1-0286 © 2015. Published by Inter-Research This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium provided that the original work is properly attributed. Merged distributions Migratory corridor Survival Triangular distributions Weighting estimates QA Mathematics GE Environmental Sciences NDAS QA GE Journal article 2015 ftstandrewserep https://doi.org/10.3354/esr00699 2023-06-13T18:28:28Z This work was supported in part by US Office of Naval Research (ONR) grants to E.F.: N00014-09-1-0896 at University of California, Santa Barbara and N00014-12-1-0274 at University of California, Davis. This work was also supported by ONR grant N000141210286 to the University of St Andrews. In addition, we gratefully acknowledge funding for this work from The Marine Alliance for Science and Technology for Scotland (MASTS). MASTS is funded by the Scottish Funding Council (grant reference HR09011) and contributing institutions. North Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis; henceforth right whales) are among the most endangered large whales. Although protected since 1935, their abundance has remained low. Right whales occupy the Atlantic Ocean from southern Greenland and the Gulf of St. Lawrence south to Florida. The highly industrialized mid-Atlantic region is part of the species’ migratory corridor. Gaps in knowledge of the species’ movements through the mid-Atlantic limit informed management of stressors to the species. To contribute to filling of these gaps, we elicited estimates of the relative abundance of adult right whales in the mid-Atlantic during four months, representing each season, from ten experts. We elicited the minimum, maximum, and mode as the number of individuals in a hypothetical population of 100 right whales, and confidence estimates as percentages. For each month-sex combination, we merged the ten experts’ answers into one distribution. The estimated modes of relative abundances of both sexes were highest in January and April (females, 29 and 59; males, 22 and 23) and lowest in July and October (females, five and nine; males, three and five). In some cases, our elicitation results were consistent with the results of studies based on sightings data. However, these studies generally did not adjust for sampling effort, which was low and likely variable. Our results supplement the results of these studies and will increase the accuracy of priors in complementary Bayesian models of right ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Eubalaena glacialis Greenland North Atlantic University of St Andrews: Digital Research Repository Greenland Endangered Species Research 29 1 51 58 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
University of St Andrews: Digital Research Repository |
op_collection_id |
ftstandrewserep |
language |
English |
topic |
Merged distributions Migratory corridor Survival Triangular distributions Weighting estimates QA Mathematics GE Environmental Sciences NDAS QA GE |
spellingShingle |
Merged distributions Migratory corridor Survival Triangular distributions Weighting estimates QA Mathematics GE Environmental Sciences NDAS QA GE Oedekoven, Cornelia Sabrina Fleishman, Erica Hamilton, Philip Clark, James S. Schick, Robert Schilling Expert elicitation of seasonal abundance of North Atlantic right whales Eubalaena glacialis in the mid-Atlantic |
topic_facet |
Merged distributions Migratory corridor Survival Triangular distributions Weighting estimates QA Mathematics GE Environmental Sciences NDAS QA GE |
description |
This work was supported in part by US Office of Naval Research (ONR) grants to E.F.: N00014-09-1-0896 at University of California, Santa Barbara and N00014-12-1-0274 at University of California, Davis. This work was also supported by ONR grant N000141210286 to the University of St Andrews. In addition, we gratefully acknowledge funding for this work from The Marine Alliance for Science and Technology for Scotland (MASTS). MASTS is funded by the Scottish Funding Council (grant reference HR09011) and contributing institutions. North Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis; henceforth right whales) are among the most endangered large whales. Although protected since 1935, their abundance has remained low. Right whales occupy the Atlantic Ocean from southern Greenland and the Gulf of St. Lawrence south to Florida. The highly industrialized mid-Atlantic region is part of the species’ migratory corridor. Gaps in knowledge of the species’ movements through the mid-Atlantic limit informed management of stressors to the species. To contribute to filling of these gaps, we elicited estimates of the relative abundance of adult right whales in the mid-Atlantic during four months, representing each season, from ten experts. We elicited the minimum, maximum, and mode as the number of individuals in a hypothetical population of 100 right whales, and confidence estimates as percentages. For each month-sex combination, we merged the ten experts’ answers into one distribution. The estimated modes of relative abundances of both sexes were highest in January and April (females, 29 and 59; males, 22 and 23) and lowest in July and October (females, five and nine; males, three and five). In some cases, our elicitation results were consistent with the results of studies based on sightings data. However, these studies generally did not adjust for sampling effort, which was low and likely variable. Our results supplement the results of these studies and will increase the accuracy of priors in complementary Bayesian models of right ... |
author2 |
Office of Naval Research University of St Andrews. School of Mathematics and Statistics University of St Andrews. Centre for Research into Ecological & Environmental Modelling |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Oedekoven, Cornelia Sabrina Fleishman, Erica Hamilton, Philip Clark, James S. Schick, Robert Schilling |
author_facet |
Oedekoven, Cornelia Sabrina Fleishman, Erica Hamilton, Philip Clark, James S. Schick, Robert Schilling |
author_sort |
Oedekoven, Cornelia Sabrina |
title |
Expert elicitation of seasonal abundance of North Atlantic right whales Eubalaena glacialis in the mid-Atlantic |
title_short |
Expert elicitation of seasonal abundance of North Atlantic right whales Eubalaena glacialis in the mid-Atlantic |
title_full |
Expert elicitation of seasonal abundance of North Atlantic right whales Eubalaena glacialis in the mid-Atlantic |
title_fullStr |
Expert elicitation of seasonal abundance of North Atlantic right whales Eubalaena glacialis in the mid-Atlantic |
title_full_unstemmed |
Expert elicitation of seasonal abundance of North Atlantic right whales Eubalaena glacialis in the mid-Atlantic |
title_sort |
expert elicitation of seasonal abundance of north atlantic right whales eubalaena glacialis in the mid-atlantic |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/7921 https://doi.org/10.3354/esr00699 |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Eubalaena glacialis Greenland North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Eubalaena glacialis Greenland North Atlantic |
op_relation |
Endangered Species Research Oedekoven , C S , Fleishman , E , Hamilton , P , Clark , J S & Schick , R S 2015 , ' Expert elicitation of seasonal abundance of North Atlantic right whales Eubalaena glacialis in the mid-Atlantic ' , Endangered Species Research , vol. 29 , no. 1 , pp. 51-58 . https://doi.org/10.3354/esr00699 1863-5407 PURE: 218429522 PURE UUID: d71982c8-94c3-490a-a2cc-8bb09a992284 Scopus: 84954349920 WOS: 000365699600005 ORCID: /0000-0002-5610-7814/work/61978850 http://hdl.handle.net/10023/7921 https://doi.org/10.3354/esr00699 N00014-12-1-0286 |
op_rights |
© 2015. Published by Inter-Research This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium provided that the original work is properly attributed. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3354/esr00699 |
container_title |
Endangered Species Research |
container_volume |
29 |
container_issue |
1 |
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51 |
op_container_end_page |
58 |
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1770271668506198016 |