Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise
The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted1 using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projec...
Published in: | Nature |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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2021
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10023/24263 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y |
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University of St Andrews: Digital Research Repository |
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English |
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G Geography (General) DAS SDG 13 - Climate Action G1 |
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G Geography (General) DAS SDG 13 - Climate Action G1 Edwards, Tamsin L. Nowicki, Sophie Marzeion, Ben Hock, Regine Goelzer, Heiko Seroussi, Hélène Jourdain, Nicolas C. Slater, Donald A. Turner, Fiona E. Smith, Christopher J. McKenna, Christine M. Simon, Erika Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Gregory, Jonathan M. Larour, Eric Lipscomb, William H. Payne, Antony J. Shepherd, Andrew Agosta, Cécile Alexander, Patrick Albrecht, Torsten Anderson, Brian Asay-Davis, Xylar Aschwanden, Andy Barthel, Alice Bliss, Andrew Calov, Reinhard Chambers, Christopher Champollion, Nicolas Choi, Youngmin Cullather, Richard Cuzzone, Joshua Dumas, Christophe Felikson, Denis Fettweis, Xavier Fujita, Koji Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K. Gladstone, Rupert Golledge, Nicholas R. Greve, Ralf Hattermann, Tore Hoffman, Matthew J. Humbert, Angelika Huss, Matthias Huybrechts, Philippe Immerzeel, Walter Kleiner, Thomas Kraaijenbrink, Philip Le clec’h, Sébastien Lee, Victoria Leguy, Gunter R. Little, Christopher M. Lowry, Daniel P. Malles, Jan-Hendrik Martin, Daniel F. Maussion, Fabien Morlighem, Mathieu O’Neill, James F. Nias, Isabel Pattyn, Frank Pelle, Tyler Price, Stephen F. Quiquet, Aurélien Radić, Valentina Reese, Ronja Rounce, David R. Rückamp, Martin Sakai, Akiko Shafer, Courtney Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne Shannon, Sarah Smith, Robin S. Straneo, Fiammetta Sun, Sainan Tarasov, Lev Trusel, Luke D. Van Breedam, Jonas van de Wal, Roderik van den Broeke, Michiel Winkelmann, Ricarda Zekollari, Harry Zhao, Chen Zhang, Tong Zwinger, Thomas Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise |
topic_facet |
G Geography (General) DAS SDG 13 - Climate Action G1 |
description |
The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted1 using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models2,3,4,5,6,7,8, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios9 and climate models10, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios11,12 using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. We find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained. Postprint Peer reviewed |
author2 |
University of St Andrews. School of Geography & Sustainable Development University of St Andrews. Environmental Change Research Group |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Edwards, Tamsin L. Nowicki, Sophie Marzeion, Ben Hock, Regine Goelzer, Heiko Seroussi, Hélène Jourdain, Nicolas C. Slater, Donald A. Turner, Fiona E. Smith, Christopher J. McKenna, Christine M. Simon, Erika Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Gregory, Jonathan M. Larour, Eric Lipscomb, William H. Payne, Antony J. Shepherd, Andrew Agosta, Cécile Alexander, Patrick Albrecht, Torsten Anderson, Brian Asay-Davis, Xylar Aschwanden, Andy Barthel, Alice Bliss, Andrew Calov, Reinhard Chambers, Christopher Champollion, Nicolas Choi, Youngmin Cullather, Richard Cuzzone, Joshua Dumas, Christophe Felikson, Denis Fettweis, Xavier Fujita, Koji Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K. Gladstone, Rupert Golledge, Nicholas R. Greve, Ralf Hattermann, Tore Hoffman, Matthew J. Humbert, Angelika Huss, Matthias Huybrechts, Philippe Immerzeel, Walter Kleiner, Thomas Kraaijenbrink, Philip Le clec’h, Sébastien Lee, Victoria Leguy, Gunter R. Little, Christopher M. Lowry, Daniel P. Malles, Jan-Hendrik Martin, Daniel F. Maussion, Fabien Morlighem, Mathieu O’Neill, James F. Nias, Isabel Pattyn, Frank Pelle, Tyler Price, Stephen F. Quiquet, Aurélien Radić, Valentina Reese, Ronja Rounce, David R. Rückamp, Martin Sakai, Akiko Shafer, Courtney Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne Shannon, Sarah Smith, Robin S. Straneo, Fiammetta Sun, Sainan Tarasov, Lev Trusel, Luke D. Van Breedam, Jonas van de Wal, Roderik van den Broeke, Michiel Winkelmann, Ricarda Zekollari, Harry Zhao, Chen Zhang, Tong Zwinger, Thomas |
author_facet |
Edwards, Tamsin L. Nowicki, Sophie Marzeion, Ben Hock, Regine Goelzer, Heiko Seroussi, Hélène Jourdain, Nicolas C. Slater, Donald A. Turner, Fiona E. Smith, Christopher J. McKenna, Christine M. Simon, Erika Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Gregory, Jonathan M. Larour, Eric Lipscomb, William H. Payne, Antony J. Shepherd, Andrew Agosta, Cécile Alexander, Patrick Albrecht, Torsten Anderson, Brian Asay-Davis, Xylar Aschwanden, Andy Barthel, Alice Bliss, Andrew Calov, Reinhard Chambers, Christopher Champollion, Nicolas Choi, Youngmin Cullather, Richard Cuzzone, Joshua Dumas, Christophe Felikson, Denis Fettweis, Xavier Fujita, Koji Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K. Gladstone, Rupert Golledge, Nicholas R. Greve, Ralf Hattermann, Tore Hoffman, Matthew J. Humbert, Angelika Huss, Matthias Huybrechts, Philippe Immerzeel, Walter Kleiner, Thomas Kraaijenbrink, Philip Le clec’h, Sébastien Lee, Victoria Leguy, Gunter R. Little, Christopher M. Lowry, Daniel P. Malles, Jan-Hendrik Martin, Daniel F. Maussion, Fabien Morlighem, Mathieu O’Neill, James F. Nias, Isabel Pattyn, Frank Pelle, Tyler Price, Stephen F. Quiquet, Aurélien Radić, Valentina Reese, Ronja Rounce, David R. Rückamp, Martin Sakai, Akiko Shafer, Courtney Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne Shannon, Sarah Smith, Robin S. Straneo, Fiammetta Sun, Sainan Tarasov, Lev Trusel, Luke D. Van Breedam, Jonas van de Wal, Roderik van den Broeke, Michiel Winkelmann, Ricarda Zekollari, Harry Zhao, Chen Zhang, Tong Zwinger, Thomas |
author_sort |
Edwards, Tamsin L. |
title |
Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise |
title_short |
Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise |
title_full |
Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise |
title_fullStr |
Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise |
title_full_unstemmed |
Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise |
title_sort |
projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/24263 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
op_relation |
Nature Edwards , T L , Nowicki , S , Marzeion , B , Hock , R , Goelzer , H , Seroussi , H , Jourdain , N C , Slater , D A , Turner , F E , Smith , C J , McKenna , C M , Simon , E , Abe-Ouchi , A , Gregory , J M , Larour , E , Lipscomb , W H , Payne , A J , Shepherd , A , Agosta , C , Alexander , P , Albrecht , T , Anderson , B , Asay-Davis , X , Aschwanden , A , Barthel , A , Bliss , A , Calov , R , Chambers , C , Champollion , N , Choi , Y , Cullather , R , Cuzzone , J , Dumas , C , Felikson , D , Fettweis , X , Fujita , K , Galton-Fenzi , B K , Gladstone , R , Golledge , N R , Greve , R , Hattermann , T , Hoffman , M J , Humbert , A , Huss , M , Huybrechts , P , Immerzeel , W , Kleiner , T , Kraaijenbrink , P , Le clec’h , S , Lee , V , Leguy , G R , Little , C M , Lowry , D P , Malles , J-H , Martin , D F , Maussion , F , Morlighem , M , O’Neill , J F , Nias , I , Pattyn , F , Pelle , T , Price , S F , Quiquet , A , Radić , V , Reese , R , Rounce , D R , Rückamp , M , Sakai , A , Shafer , C , Schlegel , N-J , Shannon , S , Smith , R S , Straneo , F , Sun , S , Tarasov , L , Trusel , L D , Van Breedam , J , van de Wal , R , van den Broeke , M , Winkelmann , R , Zekollari , H , Zhao , C , Zhang , T & Zwinger , T 2021 , ' Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise ' , Nature , vol. 593 , no. 7857 , pp. 74-82 . https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y 0028-0836 PURE: 272792036 PURE UUID: 42223401-b180-4592-83e1-0e2703ef6cd1 RIS: urn:C7C01CE8AC1DE361E5C5F6286AD3D8A8 RIS: Edwards2021 ORCID: /0000-0001-8394-6149/work/94291753 Scopus: 85105308010 WOS: 000647642900014 http://hdl.handle.net/10023/24263 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y |
op_rights |
Copyright © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited. This work has been made available online in accordance with publisher policies or with permission. Permission for further reuse of this content should be sought from the publisher or the rights holder. This is the author created accepted manuscript following peer review and may differ slightly from the final published version. The final published version of this work is available at https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y |
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https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y |
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Nature |
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ftstandrewserep:oai:research-repository.st-andrews.ac.uk:10023/24263 2023-07-02T03:29:49+02:00 Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise Edwards, Tamsin L. Nowicki, Sophie Marzeion, Ben Hock, Regine Goelzer, Heiko Seroussi, Hélène Jourdain, Nicolas C. Slater, Donald A. Turner, Fiona E. Smith, Christopher J. McKenna, Christine M. Simon, Erika Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Gregory, Jonathan M. Larour, Eric Lipscomb, William H. Payne, Antony J. Shepherd, Andrew Agosta, Cécile Alexander, Patrick Albrecht, Torsten Anderson, Brian Asay-Davis, Xylar Aschwanden, Andy Barthel, Alice Bliss, Andrew Calov, Reinhard Chambers, Christopher Champollion, Nicolas Choi, Youngmin Cullather, Richard Cuzzone, Joshua Dumas, Christophe Felikson, Denis Fettweis, Xavier Fujita, Koji Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K. Gladstone, Rupert Golledge, Nicholas R. Greve, Ralf Hattermann, Tore Hoffman, Matthew J. Humbert, Angelika Huss, Matthias Huybrechts, Philippe Immerzeel, Walter Kleiner, Thomas Kraaijenbrink, Philip Le clec’h, Sébastien Lee, Victoria Leguy, Gunter R. Little, Christopher M. Lowry, Daniel P. Malles, Jan-Hendrik Martin, Daniel F. Maussion, Fabien Morlighem, Mathieu O’Neill, James F. Nias, Isabel Pattyn, Frank Pelle, Tyler Price, Stephen F. Quiquet, Aurélien Radić, Valentina Reese, Ronja Rounce, David R. Rückamp, Martin Sakai, Akiko Shafer, Courtney Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne Shannon, Sarah Smith, Robin S. Straneo, Fiammetta Sun, Sainan Tarasov, Lev Trusel, Luke D. Van Breedam, Jonas van de Wal, Roderik van den Broeke, Michiel Winkelmann, Ricarda Zekollari, Harry Zhao, Chen Zhang, Tong Zwinger, Thomas University of St Andrews. School of Geography & Sustainable Development University of St Andrews. Environmental Change Research Group 2021-11-05 9 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/10023/24263 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y eng eng Nature Edwards , T L , Nowicki , S , Marzeion , B , Hock , R , Goelzer , H , Seroussi , H , Jourdain , N C , Slater , D A , Turner , F E , Smith , C J , McKenna , C M , Simon , E , Abe-Ouchi , A , Gregory , J M , Larour , E , Lipscomb , W H , Payne , A J , Shepherd , A , Agosta , C , Alexander , P , Albrecht , T , Anderson , B , Asay-Davis , X , Aschwanden , A , Barthel , A , Bliss , A , Calov , R , Chambers , C , Champollion , N , Choi , Y , Cullather , R , Cuzzone , J , Dumas , C , Felikson , D , Fettweis , X , Fujita , K , Galton-Fenzi , B K , Gladstone , R , Golledge , N R , Greve , R , Hattermann , T , Hoffman , M J , Humbert , A , Huss , M , Huybrechts , P , Immerzeel , W , Kleiner , T , Kraaijenbrink , P , Le clec’h , S , Lee , V , Leguy , G R , Little , C M , Lowry , D P , Malles , J-H , Martin , D F , Maussion , F , Morlighem , M , O’Neill , J F , Nias , I , Pattyn , F , Pelle , T , Price , S F , Quiquet , A , Radić , V , Reese , R , Rounce , D R , Rückamp , M , Sakai , A , Shafer , C , Schlegel , N-J , Shannon , S , Smith , R S , Straneo , F , Sun , S , Tarasov , L , Trusel , L D , Van Breedam , J , van de Wal , R , van den Broeke , M , Winkelmann , R , Zekollari , H , Zhao , C , Zhang , T & Zwinger , T 2021 , ' Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise ' , Nature , vol. 593 , no. 7857 , pp. 74-82 . https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y 0028-0836 PURE: 272792036 PURE UUID: 42223401-b180-4592-83e1-0e2703ef6cd1 RIS: urn:C7C01CE8AC1DE361E5C5F6286AD3D8A8 RIS: Edwards2021 ORCID: /0000-0001-8394-6149/work/94291753 Scopus: 85105308010 WOS: 000647642900014 http://hdl.handle.net/10023/24263 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y Copyright © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited. This work has been made available online in accordance with publisher policies or with permission. Permission for further reuse of this content should be sought from the publisher or the rights holder. This is the author created accepted manuscript following peer review and may differ slightly from the final published version. The final published version of this work is available at https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y G Geography (General) DAS SDG 13 - Climate Action G1 Journal article 2021 ftstandrewserep https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y 2023-06-13T18:26:08Z The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted1 using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models2,3,4,5,6,7,8, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios9 and climate models10, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios11,12 using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. We find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained. Postprint Peer reviewed Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet University of St Andrews: Digital Research Repository Antarctic The Antarctic Nature 593 7857 74 82 |