Slowing down wolves to protect boreal caribou populations : a spatial simulation model of linear feature restoration
In Canada, boreal caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) are declining in numbers, in part due to increased predation by wolves (Canis lupus). One management option to reduce wolf–caribou interactions and thus protect caribou is to remove man‐made linear features (LFs), structures such as roads, trails...
Published in: | Ecosphere |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
2019
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10023/18776 https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.2904 |
id |
ftstandrewserep:oai:research-repository.st-andrews.ac.uk:10023/18776 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftstandrewserep:oai:research-repository.st-andrews.ac.uk:10023/18776 2023-07-02T03:31:55+02:00 Slowing down wolves to protect boreal caribou populations : a spatial simulation model of linear feature restoration Spangenberg, Matthias C. Serrouya, Robert Dickie, Melanie DeMars, Craig A. Michelot, Théo Boutin, Stan Wittmann, Meike J. University of St Andrews. Statistics 2019-10-25T14:30:10Z 17 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/10023/18776 https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.2904 eng eng Ecosphere Spangenberg , M C , Serrouya , R , Dickie , M , DeMars , C A , Michelot , T , Boutin , S & Wittmann , M J 2019 , ' Slowing down wolves to protect boreal caribou populations : a spatial simulation model of linear feature restoration ' , Ecosphere , vol. 10 , no. 10 , e02904 . https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.2904 2150-8925 PURE: 262322495 PURE UUID: 71598b52-e02d-477f-9284-c40101d879cc RIS: urn:947CF8A737A72D619995A84A4FF3B226 Scopus: 85074260800 WOS: 000493528200030 http://hdl.handle.net/10023/18776 https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.2904 Copyright © 2019 The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. Alberta Apparent competition Boreal woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) Caribou conservation Hidden Markov model Linear feature restoration Predator–prey interaction Recruitment–mortality equation Wolf (Canis lupus) QH301 Biology DAS QH301 Journal article 2019 ftstandrewserep https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.2904 2023-06-13T18:27:11Z In Canada, boreal caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) are declining in numbers, in part due to increased predation by wolves (Canis lupus). One management option to reduce wolf–caribou interactions and thus protect caribou is to remove man‐made linear features (LFs), structures such as roads, trails, and cut lines, which are used by wolves as traveling paths. Linear features increase wolf traveling speed and could additionally facilitate wolf entry into caribou habitat. Our goal was to quantify the expected effect of LF removal on caribou mortality and investigate whether this LF restoration could be a sufficient measure to stop caribou declines. We simulated the effects of LF restoration on caribou adult and calf survival in spatially explicit wolf–caribou encounter models. The models were parameterized using Global Positioning System (GPS) data, hidden Markov models (HMMs), and information from the published literature. Complete LF restoration decreased wolf traveling speed and thus reduced caribou mortality. The proportional reduction in adult caribou mortality ranged from 10 to 25% of its original value, and the proportional reduction in calf mortality ranged from 8 to 23%, depending on caribou density, number of wolf packs, kill probability given an encounter, and detection distance of wolves for caribou. Building on the model output, we used empirical caribou data to calculate the effects of reduced mortalities on the finite rate of annual population change, λ. Assuming that 25% or less of calf mortality was wolf‐related, λ stayed below one, that is, populations kept declining, even with complete LF restoration. With 50% of calf mortality due to wolves, caribou populations stopped declining ( λ≥1) if adult and calf mortality were reduced by at least 19 to 24%. However, these values were not achieved in a majority of the parameter combinations in our study, not even with complete LF restoration. Given that LF restoration as a single measure is unlikely to stop boreal caribou populations from declining, we ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Canis lupus Rangifer tarandus University of St Andrews: Digital Research Repository Canada Ecosphere 10 10 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of St Andrews: Digital Research Repository |
op_collection_id |
ftstandrewserep |
language |
English |
topic |
Alberta Apparent competition Boreal woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) Caribou conservation Hidden Markov model Linear feature restoration Predator–prey interaction Recruitment–mortality equation Wolf (Canis lupus) QH301 Biology DAS QH301 |
spellingShingle |
Alberta Apparent competition Boreal woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) Caribou conservation Hidden Markov model Linear feature restoration Predator–prey interaction Recruitment–mortality equation Wolf (Canis lupus) QH301 Biology DAS QH301 Spangenberg, Matthias C. Serrouya, Robert Dickie, Melanie DeMars, Craig A. Michelot, Théo Boutin, Stan Wittmann, Meike J. Slowing down wolves to protect boreal caribou populations : a spatial simulation model of linear feature restoration |
topic_facet |
Alberta Apparent competition Boreal woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) Caribou conservation Hidden Markov model Linear feature restoration Predator–prey interaction Recruitment–mortality equation Wolf (Canis lupus) QH301 Biology DAS QH301 |
description |
In Canada, boreal caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) are declining in numbers, in part due to increased predation by wolves (Canis lupus). One management option to reduce wolf–caribou interactions and thus protect caribou is to remove man‐made linear features (LFs), structures such as roads, trails, and cut lines, which are used by wolves as traveling paths. Linear features increase wolf traveling speed and could additionally facilitate wolf entry into caribou habitat. Our goal was to quantify the expected effect of LF removal on caribou mortality and investigate whether this LF restoration could be a sufficient measure to stop caribou declines. We simulated the effects of LF restoration on caribou adult and calf survival in spatially explicit wolf–caribou encounter models. The models were parameterized using Global Positioning System (GPS) data, hidden Markov models (HMMs), and information from the published literature. Complete LF restoration decreased wolf traveling speed and thus reduced caribou mortality. The proportional reduction in adult caribou mortality ranged from 10 to 25% of its original value, and the proportional reduction in calf mortality ranged from 8 to 23%, depending on caribou density, number of wolf packs, kill probability given an encounter, and detection distance of wolves for caribou. Building on the model output, we used empirical caribou data to calculate the effects of reduced mortalities on the finite rate of annual population change, λ. Assuming that 25% or less of calf mortality was wolf‐related, λ stayed below one, that is, populations kept declining, even with complete LF restoration. With 50% of calf mortality due to wolves, caribou populations stopped declining ( λ≥1) if adult and calf mortality were reduced by at least 19 to 24%. However, these values were not achieved in a majority of the parameter combinations in our study, not even with complete LF restoration. Given that LF restoration as a single measure is unlikely to stop boreal caribou populations from declining, we ... |
author2 |
University of St Andrews. Statistics |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Spangenberg, Matthias C. Serrouya, Robert Dickie, Melanie DeMars, Craig A. Michelot, Théo Boutin, Stan Wittmann, Meike J. |
author_facet |
Spangenberg, Matthias C. Serrouya, Robert Dickie, Melanie DeMars, Craig A. Michelot, Théo Boutin, Stan Wittmann, Meike J. |
author_sort |
Spangenberg, Matthias C. |
title |
Slowing down wolves to protect boreal caribou populations : a spatial simulation model of linear feature restoration |
title_short |
Slowing down wolves to protect boreal caribou populations : a spatial simulation model of linear feature restoration |
title_full |
Slowing down wolves to protect boreal caribou populations : a spatial simulation model of linear feature restoration |
title_fullStr |
Slowing down wolves to protect boreal caribou populations : a spatial simulation model of linear feature restoration |
title_full_unstemmed |
Slowing down wolves to protect boreal caribou populations : a spatial simulation model of linear feature restoration |
title_sort |
slowing down wolves to protect boreal caribou populations : a spatial simulation model of linear feature restoration |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/18776 https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.2904 |
geographic |
Canada |
geographic_facet |
Canada |
genre |
Canis lupus Rangifer tarandus |
genre_facet |
Canis lupus Rangifer tarandus |
op_relation |
Ecosphere Spangenberg , M C , Serrouya , R , Dickie , M , DeMars , C A , Michelot , T , Boutin , S & Wittmann , M J 2019 , ' Slowing down wolves to protect boreal caribou populations : a spatial simulation model of linear feature restoration ' , Ecosphere , vol. 10 , no. 10 , e02904 . https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.2904 2150-8925 PURE: 262322495 PURE UUID: 71598b52-e02d-477f-9284-c40101d879cc RIS: urn:947CF8A737A72D619995A84A4FF3B226 Scopus: 85074260800 WOS: 000493528200030 http://hdl.handle.net/10023/18776 https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.2904 |
op_rights |
Copyright © 2019 The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.2904 |
container_title |
Ecosphere |
container_volume |
10 |
container_issue |
10 |
_version_ |
1770271349947760640 |