Rebuilding beluga stocks in West Greenland
This study was funded by the Greenland Bureau of Minerals and Petroleum, the Danish Cooperation of the Environment in the Arctic (DANCEA, Danish Ministry of the Environment) and the Greenland Institute of Natural Resources. Decisions about sustainable exploitation levels of marine resources are ofte...
Published in: | Animal Conservation |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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2017
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10023/10882 https://doi.org/10.1111/acv.12315 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/acv.12315/full#footer-support-info |
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ftstandrewserep:oai:research-repository.st-andrews.ac.uk:10023/10882 |
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record_format |
openpolar |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of St Andrews: Digital Research Repository |
op_collection_id |
ftstandrewserep |
language |
English |
topic |
Aerial survey Bayesian assessment Hidden Markov model Line transect Beluga Sea ice cover Abundance estimates Cetaceans GE Environmental Sciences QH301 Biology QL Zoology NDAS SDG 14 - Life Below Water GE QH301 QL |
spellingShingle |
Aerial survey Bayesian assessment Hidden Markov model Line transect Beluga Sea ice cover Abundance estimates Cetaceans GE Environmental Sciences QH301 Biology QL Zoology NDAS SDG 14 - Life Below Water GE QH301 QL Heide-Jørgensen, M. P. Hansen, R. G. Fossette, S. Nielsen, N. H. Borchers, D. L. Stern, H. Witting, L. Rebuilding beluga stocks in West Greenland |
topic_facet |
Aerial survey Bayesian assessment Hidden Markov model Line transect Beluga Sea ice cover Abundance estimates Cetaceans GE Environmental Sciences QH301 Biology QL Zoology NDAS SDG 14 - Life Below Water GE QH301 QL |
description |
This study was funded by the Greenland Bureau of Minerals and Petroleum, the Danish Cooperation of the Environment in the Arctic (DANCEA, Danish Ministry of the Environment) and the Greenland Institute of Natural Resources. Decisions about sustainable exploitation levels of marine resources are often based on inadequate data, but are nevertheless required for practical purposes. We describe one exception where abundance estimates spanning 30 years and catch data spanning more than 40 years were used in a Bayesian assessment model of belugas Delphinapterus leucas off West Greenland. The model was updated with data from a visual aerial survey on the wintering ground in 2012. Methods that take account of stochastic animal availability by using independent estimates of forward and perpendicular sighting distances were used to estimate beluga abundance. A model that appears to be robust to the presence of a few large groups yielded an estimate of 7456 belugas (cv = 0.44), similar to a conventional distance-sampling estimate. A mark–recapture distance analysis that corrects for perception and availability bias estimated the abundance to be 9072 whales (cv = 0.32). Increasing distance of beluga sightings from shore was correlated with decreasing sea ice cover, suggesting that belugas expand their distribution offshore (i.e. westward in this context) with the reduction of coastal sea ice. A model with high (0.98) adult survival estimated a decline from 18 600 (90% CI: 13 400, 26 000) whales in 1970 to 8000 (90% CI: 5830, 11 200) in 2004. The decline was probably a result of a period with exceptionally large catches. Following the introduction of catch limits in 2004, the model projects an increase to 11 600 (90% CI: 6760, 17 600) individuals in 2020 (assuming annual removals of 294 belugas after 2014). If the annual removal level is fixed at 300 individuals, a low-survival (0.97) model predicts a 75% probability of an increasing population during 2015–2020. Reduced removal rates due to catch limits and the more ... |
author2 |
University of St Andrews. School of Mathematics and Statistics University of St Andrews. Marine Alliance for Science & Technology Scotland University of St Andrews. Scottish Oceans Institute University of St Andrews. Centre for Research into Ecological & Environmental Modelling |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Heide-Jørgensen, M. P. Hansen, R. G. Fossette, S. Nielsen, N. H. Borchers, D. L. Stern, H. Witting, L. |
author_facet |
Heide-Jørgensen, M. P. Hansen, R. G. Fossette, S. Nielsen, N. H. Borchers, D. L. Stern, H. Witting, L. |
author_sort |
Heide-Jørgensen, M. P. |
title |
Rebuilding beluga stocks in West Greenland |
title_short |
Rebuilding beluga stocks in West Greenland |
title_full |
Rebuilding beluga stocks in West Greenland |
title_fullStr |
Rebuilding beluga stocks in West Greenland |
title_full_unstemmed |
Rebuilding beluga stocks in West Greenland |
title_sort |
rebuilding beluga stocks in west greenland |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/10882 https://doi.org/10.1111/acv.12315 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/acv.12315/full#footer-support-info |
geographic |
Arctic Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Greenland |
genre |
Arctic Beluga Beluga* Delphinapterus leucas Greenland Greenland Institute of Natural Resources Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Beluga Beluga* Delphinapterus leucas Greenland Greenland Institute of Natural Resources Sea ice |
op_relation |
Animal Conservation Heide-Jørgensen , M P , Hansen , R G , Fossette , S , Nielsen , N H , Borchers , D L , Stern , H & Witting , L 2017 , ' Rebuilding beluga stocks in West Greenland ' , Animal Conservation , vol. 20 , no. 3 , pp. 282-293 . https://doi.org/10.1111/acv.12315 1469-1795 PURE: 247649478 PURE UUID: 1dc72875-465a-47f2-8a8e-14038ea88914 Bibtex: urn:f5adae1a99bba0bee8198c3bf30b99d2 Scopus: 85000836759 WOS: 000402274300007 ORCID: /0000-0002-3944-0754/work/72842472 http://hdl.handle.net/10023/10882 https://doi.org/10.1111/acv.12315 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/acv.12315/full#footer-support-info |
op_rights |
© 2016 The Authors. Animal Conservation published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of The Zoological Society of London. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/acv.12315 |
container_title |
Animal Conservation |
container_volume |
20 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
282 |
op_container_end_page |
293 |
_version_ |
1770270960481468416 |
spelling |
ftstandrewserep:oai:research-repository.st-andrews.ac.uk:10023/10882 2023-07-02T03:31:36+02:00 Rebuilding beluga stocks in West Greenland Heide-Jørgensen, M. P. Hansen, R. G. Fossette, S. Nielsen, N. H. Borchers, D. L. Stern, H. Witting, L. University of St Andrews. School of Mathematics and Statistics University of St Andrews. Marine Alliance for Science & Technology Scotland University of St Andrews. Scottish Oceans Institute University of St Andrews. Centre for Research into Ecological & Environmental Modelling 2017-05-31T12:30:08Z 11 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/10023/10882 https://doi.org/10.1111/acv.12315 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/acv.12315/full#footer-support-info eng eng Animal Conservation Heide-Jørgensen , M P , Hansen , R G , Fossette , S , Nielsen , N H , Borchers , D L , Stern , H & Witting , L 2017 , ' Rebuilding beluga stocks in West Greenland ' , Animal Conservation , vol. 20 , no. 3 , pp. 282-293 . https://doi.org/10.1111/acv.12315 1469-1795 PURE: 247649478 PURE UUID: 1dc72875-465a-47f2-8a8e-14038ea88914 Bibtex: urn:f5adae1a99bba0bee8198c3bf30b99d2 Scopus: 85000836759 WOS: 000402274300007 ORCID: /0000-0002-3944-0754/work/72842472 http://hdl.handle.net/10023/10882 https://doi.org/10.1111/acv.12315 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/acv.12315/full#footer-support-info © 2016 The Authors. Animal Conservation published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of The Zoological Society of London. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. Aerial survey Bayesian assessment Hidden Markov model Line transect Beluga Sea ice cover Abundance estimates Cetaceans GE Environmental Sciences QH301 Biology QL Zoology NDAS SDG 14 - Life Below Water GE QH301 QL Journal article 2017 ftstandrewserep https://doi.org/10.1111/acv.12315 2023-06-13T18:27:34Z This study was funded by the Greenland Bureau of Minerals and Petroleum, the Danish Cooperation of the Environment in the Arctic (DANCEA, Danish Ministry of the Environment) and the Greenland Institute of Natural Resources. Decisions about sustainable exploitation levels of marine resources are often based on inadequate data, but are nevertheless required for practical purposes. We describe one exception where abundance estimates spanning 30 years and catch data spanning more than 40 years were used in a Bayesian assessment model of belugas Delphinapterus leucas off West Greenland. The model was updated with data from a visual aerial survey on the wintering ground in 2012. Methods that take account of stochastic animal availability by using independent estimates of forward and perpendicular sighting distances were used to estimate beluga abundance. A model that appears to be robust to the presence of a few large groups yielded an estimate of 7456 belugas (cv = 0.44), similar to a conventional distance-sampling estimate. A mark–recapture distance analysis that corrects for perception and availability bias estimated the abundance to be 9072 whales (cv = 0.32). Increasing distance of beluga sightings from shore was correlated with decreasing sea ice cover, suggesting that belugas expand their distribution offshore (i.e. westward in this context) with the reduction of coastal sea ice. A model with high (0.98) adult survival estimated a decline from 18 600 (90% CI: 13 400, 26 000) whales in 1970 to 8000 (90% CI: 5830, 11 200) in 2004. The decline was probably a result of a period with exceptionally large catches. Following the introduction of catch limits in 2004, the model projects an increase to 11 600 (90% CI: 6760, 17 600) individuals in 2020 (assuming annual removals of 294 belugas after 2014). If the annual removal level is fixed at 300 individuals, a low-survival (0.97) model predicts a 75% probability of an increasing population during 2015–2020. Reduced removal rates due to catch limits and the more ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Beluga Beluga* Delphinapterus leucas Greenland Greenland Institute of Natural Resources Sea ice University of St Andrews: Digital Research Repository Arctic Greenland Animal Conservation 20 3 282 293 |