Past long-term summer warming over western Europe in new generation climate models: Role of large-scale atmospheric circulation
Past studies have concluded that climate models of previous generations tended to underestimate the large warming trend that has been observed in summer over western Europe in the last few decades. The causes of this systematic error are still not clear. Here, we investigate this issue with a new ge...
Published in: | Environmental Research Letters |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
2020
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/452131/ https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/452131/1/Bo_2020_Environ._Res._Lett._15_084038.pdf |
id |
ftsouthampton:oai:eprints.soton.ac.uk:452131 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftsouthampton:oai:eprints.soton.ac.uk:452131 2023-12-03T10:27:03+01:00 Past long-term summer warming over western Europe in new generation climate models: Role of large-scale atmospheric circulation Boé, Julien Terray, Laurent Moine, Marie-pierre Valcke, Sophie Bellucci, Alessio Drijfhout, Sybren Haarsma, Rein Lohmann, Katja Putrasahan, Dian A. Roberts, Chris Roberts, Malcom Scoccimarro, Enrico Seddon, Jon Senan, Retish Wyser, Klaus 2020-08-07 text https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/452131/ https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/452131/1/Bo_2020_Environ._Res._Lett._15_084038.pdf en English eng https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/452131/1/Bo_2020_Environ._Res._Lett._15_084038.pdf Boé, Julien, Terray, Laurent, Moine, Marie-pierre, Valcke, Sophie, Bellucci, Alessio, Drijfhout, Sybren, Haarsma, Rein, Lohmann, Katja, Putrasahan, Dian A., Roberts, Chris, Roberts, Malcom, Scoccimarro, Enrico, Seddon, Jon, Senan, Retish and Wyser, Klaus (2020) Past long-term summer warming over western Europe in new generation climate models: Role of large-scale atmospheric circulation. Environmental Research Letters, 15 (8), [084038]. (doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab8a89 <http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab8a89>). cc_by_4 Article PeerReviewed 2020 ftsouthampton https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab8a89 2023-11-03T00:02:36Z Past studies have concluded that climate models of previous generations tended to underestimate the large warming trend that has been observed in summer over western Europe in the last few decades. The causes of this systematic error are still not clear. Here, we investigate this issue with a new generation of climate models and systematically explore the role of large-scale circulation in that context. As an ensemble, climate models in this study warm less over western Europe and warm more over eastern Europe than observed on the 1951–2014 period, but it is difficult to conclude this is directly due to systematic errors given the large potential impact of internal variability. These differences in temperature trends are explained to an important extent by an anti-correlation of sea level pressure trends over the North Atlantic / Europe domain between models and observations. The observed trend tends to warm (cool) western (eastern) Europe but the simulated trends generally have the opposite effect, both in new generation and past generation climate models. The differences between observed and simulated sea level pressure trends are likely the result of systematic model errors, which might also impact future climate projections. Neither a higher resolution nor the realistic representation of the evolution of sea surface temperature and sea ice leads to a better simulation of sea level pressure trends. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Sea ice University of Southampton: e-Prints Soton Environmental Research Letters 15 8 084038 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Southampton: e-Prints Soton |
op_collection_id |
ftsouthampton |
language |
English |
description |
Past studies have concluded that climate models of previous generations tended to underestimate the large warming trend that has been observed in summer over western Europe in the last few decades. The causes of this systematic error are still not clear. Here, we investigate this issue with a new generation of climate models and systematically explore the role of large-scale circulation in that context. As an ensemble, climate models in this study warm less over western Europe and warm more over eastern Europe than observed on the 1951–2014 period, but it is difficult to conclude this is directly due to systematic errors given the large potential impact of internal variability. These differences in temperature trends are explained to an important extent by an anti-correlation of sea level pressure trends over the North Atlantic / Europe domain between models and observations. The observed trend tends to warm (cool) western (eastern) Europe but the simulated trends generally have the opposite effect, both in new generation and past generation climate models. The differences between observed and simulated sea level pressure trends are likely the result of systematic model errors, which might also impact future climate projections. Neither a higher resolution nor the realistic representation of the evolution of sea surface temperature and sea ice leads to a better simulation of sea level pressure trends. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Boé, Julien Terray, Laurent Moine, Marie-pierre Valcke, Sophie Bellucci, Alessio Drijfhout, Sybren Haarsma, Rein Lohmann, Katja Putrasahan, Dian A. Roberts, Chris Roberts, Malcom Scoccimarro, Enrico Seddon, Jon Senan, Retish Wyser, Klaus |
spellingShingle |
Boé, Julien Terray, Laurent Moine, Marie-pierre Valcke, Sophie Bellucci, Alessio Drijfhout, Sybren Haarsma, Rein Lohmann, Katja Putrasahan, Dian A. Roberts, Chris Roberts, Malcom Scoccimarro, Enrico Seddon, Jon Senan, Retish Wyser, Klaus Past long-term summer warming over western Europe in new generation climate models: Role of large-scale atmospheric circulation |
author_facet |
Boé, Julien Terray, Laurent Moine, Marie-pierre Valcke, Sophie Bellucci, Alessio Drijfhout, Sybren Haarsma, Rein Lohmann, Katja Putrasahan, Dian A. Roberts, Chris Roberts, Malcom Scoccimarro, Enrico Seddon, Jon Senan, Retish Wyser, Klaus |
author_sort |
Boé, Julien |
title |
Past long-term summer warming over western Europe in new generation climate models: Role of large-scale atmospheric circulation |
title_short |
Past long-term summer warming over western Europe in new generation climate models: Role of large-scale atmospheric circulation |
title_full |
Past long-term summer warming over western Europe in new generation climate models: Role of large-scale atmospheric circulation |
title_fullStr |
Past long-term summer warming over western Europe in new generation climate models: Role of large-scale atmospheric circulation |
title_full_unstemmed |
Past long-term summer warming over western Europe in new generation climate models: Role of large-scale atmospheric circulation |
title_sort |
past long-term summer warming over western europe in new generation climate models: role of large-scale atmospheric circulation |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/452131/ https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/452131/1/Bo_2020_Environ._Res._Lett._15_084038.pdf |
genre |
North Atlantic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic Sea ice |
op_relation |
https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/452131/1/Bo_2020_Environ._Res._Lett._15_084038.pdf Boé, Julien, Terray, Laurent, Moine, Marie-pierre, Valcke, Sophie, Bellucci, Alessio, Drijfhout, Sybren, Haarsma, Rein, Lohmann, Katja, Putrasahan, Dian A., Roberts, Chris, Roberts, Malcom, Scoccimarro, Enrico, Seddon, Jon, Senan, Retish and Wyser, Klaus (2020) Past long-term summer warming over western Europe in new generation climate models: Role of large-scale atmospheric circulation. Environmental Research Letters, 15 (8), [084038]. (doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab8a89 <http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab8a89>). |
op_rights |
cc_by_4 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab8a89 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
15 |
container_issue |
8 |
container_start_page |
084038 |
_version_ |
1784276623244132352 |