Regional analysis of multivariate compound coastal flooding potential around Europe and environs: sensitivity analysis and spatial patterns
In coastal regions, floods can arise through a combination of multiple drivers, including direct surface run-off, river discharge, storm surge, and waves. In this study, we analyse compound flood potential in Europe and environs caused by these four main flooding sources using state-of-the-art datab...
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Online Access: | https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/450260/ https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/450260/1/nhess_2021_50_3_.pdf |
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ftsouthampton:oai:eprints.soton.ac.uk:450260 2023-12-03T10:27:01+01:00 Regional analysis of multivariate compound coastal flooding potential around Europe and environs: sensitivity analysis and spatial patterns Camus Brana, Paula Haigh, Ivan Nasr, Ahmed A. Wahl, Thomas Darby, Stephen Nicholls, Robert 2021-07-06 text https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/450260/ https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/450260/1/nhess_2021_50_3_.pdf en English eng https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/450260/1/nhess_2021_50_3_.pdf Camus Brana, Paula, Haigh, Ivan, Nasr, Ahmed A., Wahl, Thomas, Darby, Stephen and Nicholls, Robert (2021) Regional analysis of multivariate compound coastal flooding potential around Europe and environs: sensitivity analysis and spatial patterns. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 21 (7), 2021-2040. (doi:10.5194/nhess-21-2021-2021 <http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2021-2021>). cc_by_4 Article PeerReviewed 2021 ftsouthampton https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2021-2021 2023-11-03T00:01:45Z In coastal regions, floods can arise through a combination of multiple drivers, including direct surface run-off, river discharge, storm surge, and waves. In this study, we analyse compound flood potential in Europe and environs caused by these four main flooding sources using state-of-the-art databases with coherent forcing (i.e. ERA5). First, we analyse the sensitivity of the compound flooding potential to several factors: (1) sampling method, (2) time window to select the concurrent event of the conditioned driver, (3) dependence metrics, and (4) wave-driven sea level definition. We observe higher correlation coefficients using annual maxima than peaks over threshold. Regarding the other factors, our results show similar spatial distributions of the compound flooding potential. Second, the dependence between the pairs of drivers using the Kendall rank correlation coefficient and the joint occurrence are synthesized for coherent patterns of compound flooding potential using a clustering technique. This quantitative multi-driver assessment not only distinguishes where overall compound flooding potential is the highest, but also discriminates which driver combinations are more likely to contribute to compound flooding. We identify that hotspots of compound flooding potential are located along the southern coast of the North Atlantic Ocean and the northern coast of the Mediterranean Sea. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic University of Southampton: e-Prints Soton Kendall ENVELOPE(-59.828,-59.828,-63.497,-63.497) Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 21 7 2021 2040 |
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University of Southampton: e-Prints Soton |
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ftsouthampton |
language |
English |
description |
In coastal regions, floods can arise through a combination of multiple drivers, including direct surface run-off, river discharge, storm surge, and waves. In this study, we analyse compound flood potential in Europe and environs caused by these four main flooding sources using state-of-the-art databases with coherent forcing (i.e. ERA5). First, we analyse the sensitivity of the compound flooding potential to several factors: (1) sampling method, (2) time window to select the concurrent event of the conditioned driver, (3) dependence metrics, and (4) wave-driven sea level definition. We observe higher correlation coefficients using annual maxima than peaks over threshold. Regarding the other factors, our results show similar spatial distributions of the compound flooding potential. Second, the dependence between the pairs of drivers using the Kendall rank correlation coefficient and the joint occurrence are synthesized for coherent patterns of compound flooding potential using a clustering technique. This quantitative multi-driver assessment not only distinguishes where overall compound flooding potential is the highest, but also discriminates which driver combinations are more likely to contribute to compound flooding. We identify that hotspots of compound flooding potential are located along the southern coast of the North Atlantic Ocean and the northern coast of the Mediterranean Sea. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Camus Brana, Paula Haigh, Ivan Nasr, Ahmed A. Wahl, Thomas Darby, Stephen Nicholls, Robert |
spellingShingle |
Camus Brana, Paula Haigh, Ivan Nasr, Ahmed A. Wahl, Thomas Darby, Stephen Nicholls, Robert Regional analysis of multivariate compound coastal flooding potential around Europe and environs: sensitivity analysis and spatial patterns |
author_facet |
Camus Brana, Paula Haigh, Ivan Nasr, Ahmed A. Wahl, Thomas Darby, Stephen Nicholls, Robert |
author_sort |
Camus Brana, Paula |
title |
Regional analysis of multivariate compound coastal flooding potential around Europe and environs: sensitivity analysis and spatial patterns |
title_short |
Regional analysis of multivariate compound coastal flooding potential around Europe and environs: sensitivity analysis and spatial patterns |
title_full |
Regional analysis of multivariate compound coastal flooding potential around Europe and environs: sensitivity analysis and spatial patterns |
title_fullStr |
Regional analysis of multivariate compound coastal flooding potential around Europe and environs: sensitivity analysis and spatial patterns |
title_full_unstemmed |
Regional analysis of multivariate compound coastal flooding potential around Europe and environs: sensitivity analysis and spatial patterns |
title_sort |
regional analysis of multivariate compound coastal flooding potential around europe and environs: sensitivity analysis and spatial patterns |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/450260/ https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/450260/1/nhess_2021_50_3_.pdf |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-59.828,-59.828,-63.497,-63.497) |
geographic |
Kendall |
geographic_facet |
Kendall |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/450260/1/nhess_2021_50_3_.pdf Camus Brana, Paula, Haigh, Ivan, Nasr, Ahmed A., Wahl, Thomas, Darby, Stephen and Nicholls, Robert (2021) Regional analysis of multivariate compound coastal flooding potential around Europe and environs: sensitivity analysis and spatial patterns. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 21 (7), 2021-2040. (doi:10.5194/nhess-21-2021-2021 <http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2021-2021>). |
op_rights |
cc_by_4 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2021-2021 |
container_title |
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
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21 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
2021 |
op_container_end_page |
2040 |
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1784276552799748096 |