The use of 2-, 5-, and 10-year probabilities to characterize fracture risk after a recent sentinel fracture
Summary The increase in fracture risk associated with a recent fragility fracture is more appropriately captured using a 10-year fracture probability than 2- or 5-year probabilities. Introduction The recency of prior fractures affects subsequent fracture risk. The aim of this study was to quantify t...
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ftsouthampton:oai:eprints.soton.ac.uk:444855 2023-07-30T04:04:27+02:00 The use of 2-, 5-, and 10-year probabilities to characterize fracture risk after a recent sentinel fracture Kanis, John A. Johansson, Helena Harvey, Nicholas Gudnason, Vilmundur Sigurdsson, Gunnar Siggeirsdottir, Kristin Lorentzon, Mattias Liu, Enwu Vandenput, Liesbeth Leslie, William D. McCloskey, Eugene V. 2021-01 text https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/444855/ https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/444855/1/2_5_and_10_y_probability_v3_R1_jk.docx en English eng https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/444855/1/2_5_and_10_y_probability_v3_R1_jk.docx Kanis, John A., Johansson, Helena, Harvey, Nicholas, Gudnason, Vilmundur, Sigurdsson, Gunnar, Siggeirsdottir, Kristin, Lorentzon, Mattias, Liu, Enwu, Vandenput, Liesbeth, Leslie, William D. and McCloskey, Eugene V. (2021) The use of 2-, 5-, and 10-year probabilities to characterize fracture risk after a recent sentinel fracture. Osteoporosis International, 32 (1), 47-54. (doi:10.1007/s00198-020-05700-w <http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00198-020-05700-w>). accepted_manuscript Article PeerReviewed 2021 ftsouthampton https://doi.org/10.1007/s00198-020-05700-w 2023-07-09T22:39:19Z Summary The increase in fracture risk associated with a recent fragility fracture is more appropriately captured using a 10-year fracture probability than 2- or 5-year probabilities. Introduction The recency of prior fractures affects subsequent fracture risk. The aim of this study was to quantify the effect of a recent sentinel fracture, by site, on the 2-, 5-, and 10-year probability of fracture. Methods The study used data from the Reykjavik Study fracture register that documented prospectively all fractures at all skeletal sites in a large sample of the population of Iceland. Fracture probabilities were determined after a sentinel fracture (humeral, clinical vertebral, forearm and hip fracture) occurring within the previous 2 years and probabilities for a prior osteoporotic fracture irrespective of recency. The probability ratios were used to adjust fracture probabilities over a 2-, 5-, and 10-year time horizon. Results As expected, probabilities decreased with decreasing time horizon. Probability ratios varied according to age and the site of sentinel fracture. Probability ratios to adjust for a prior fracture within the previous 2 years were higher the shorter the time horizon, but the absolute increases in fracture probabilities were much reduced. Thus, fracture probabilities were substantially lower with time horizons less than 10 years. Conclusion The 10-year probability of fractures is the appropriate metric to capture the impact of the recency of sentinel fractures. The probability ratios provide adjustments to conventional FRAX estimates of fracture probability for recent sentinel fractures, adjustments which can readily inform clinical decision-making. Article in Journal/Newspaper Iceland University of Southampton: e-Prints Soton Osteoporosis International 32 1 47 54 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Southampton: e-Prints Soton |
op_collection_id |
ftsouthampton |
language |
English |
description |
Summary The increase in fracture risk associated with a recent fragility fracture is more appropriately captured using a 10-year fracture probability than 2- or 5-year probabilities. Introduction The recency of prior fractures affects subsequent fracture risk. The aim of this study was to quantify the effect of a recent sentinel fracture, by site, on the 2-, 5-, and 10-year probability of fracture. Methods The study used data from the Reykjavik Study fracture register that documented prospectively all fractures at all skeletal sites in a large sample of the population of Iceland. Fracture probabilities were determined after a sentinel fracture (humeral, clinical vertebral, forearm and hip fracture) occurring within the previous 2 years and probabilities for a prior osteoporotic fracture irrespective of recency. The probability ratios were used to adjust fracture probabilities over a 2-, 5-, and 10-year time horizon. Results As expected, probabilities decreased with decreasing time horizon. Probability ratios varied according to age and the site of sentinel fracture. Probability ratios to adjust for a prior fracture within the previous 2 years were higher the shorter the time horizon, but the absolute increases in fracture probabilities were much reduced. Thus, fracture probabilities were substantially lower with time horizons less than 10 years. Conclusion The 10-year probability of fractures is the appropriate metric to capture the impact of the recency of sentinel fractures. The probability ratios provide adjustments to conventional FRAX estimates of fracture probability for recent sentinel fractures, adjustments which can readily inform clinical decision-making. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Kanis, John A. Johansson, Helena Harvey, Nicholas Gudnason, Vilmundur Sigurdsson, Gunnar Siggeirsdottir, Kristin Lorentzon, Mattias Liu, Enwu Vandenput, Liesbeth Leslie, William D. McCloskey, Eugene V. |
spellingShingle |
Kanis, John A. Johansson, Helena Harvey, Nicholas Gudnason, Vilmundur Sigurdsson, Gunnar Siggeirsdottir, Kristin Lorentzon, Mattias Liu, Enwu Vandenput, Liesbeth Leslie, William D. McCloskey, Eugene V. The use of 2-, 5-, and 10-year probabilities to characterize fracture risk after a recent sentinel fracture |
author_facet |
Kanis, John A. Johansson, Helena Harvey, Nicholas Gudnason, Vilmundur Sigurdsson, Gunnar Siggeirsdottir, Kristin Lorentzon, Mattias Liu, Enwu Vandenput, Liesbeth Leslie, William D. McCloskey, Eugene V. |
author_sort |
Kanis, John A. |
title |
The use of 2-, 5-, and 10-year probabilities to characterize fracture risk after a recent sentinel fracture |
title_short |
The use of 2-, 5-, and 10-year probabilities to characterize fracture risk after a recent sentinel fracture |
title_full |
The use of 2-, 5-, and 10-year probabilities to characterize fracture risk after a recent sentinel fracture |
title_fullStr |
The use of 2-, 5-, and 10-year probabilities to characterize fracture risk after a recent sentinel fracture |
title_full_unstemmed |
The use of 2-, 5-, and 10-year probabilities to characterize fracture risk after a recent sentinel fracture |
title_sort |
use of 2-, 5-, and 10-year probabilities to characterize fracture risk after a recent sentinel fracture |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/444855/ https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/444855/1/2_5_and_10_y_probability_v3_R1_jk.docx |
genre |
Iceland |
genre_facet |
Iceland |
op_relation |
https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/444855/1/2_5_and_10_y_probability_v3_R1_jk.docx Kanis, John A., Johansson, Helena, Harvey, Nicholas, Gudnason, Vilmundur, Sigurdsson, Gunnar, Siggeirsdottir, Kristin, Lorentzon, Mattias, Liu, Enwu, Vandenput, Liesbeth, Leslie, William D. and McCloskey, Eugene V. (2021) The use of 2-, 5-, and 10-year probabilities to characterize fracture risk after a recent sentinel fracture. Osteoporosis International, 32 (1), 47-54. (doi:10.1007/s00198-020-05700-w <http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00198-020-05700-w>). |
op_rights |
accepted_manuscript |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00198-020-05700-w |
container_title |
Osteoporosis International |
container_volume |
32 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
47 |
op_container_end_page |
54 |
_version_ |
1772815903213223936 |