Height and body-mass index trajectories of school-aged children and adolescents from 1985 to 2019 in 200 countries: pooled analysis of 2,182 population-based studies with 65 million participants

• Published in: The Lancet
• Main Authors: Rodriguez-Martinez, Andrea, Zhou, Bin, Sophiea, Marisa K., Bentham, James, Paciorek, Christopher J., Iurilli, Maria L. C., Carrillo-Larco, Rodrigo M., Bennett, James E., Di Cesare, Mariachiara, Taddei, Cristina, Bixby, Honor, Stevens, Gretchen A., Riley, Leanne M., Cowan, Melanie J., Savin, Stefan, Danaei, Goodarz, Chirita-Emandi, Adela, Kengne, Andre P., Khang, Young-Ho, Laxmaiah, Avula, Malekzadeh, Reza, Miranda, J. Jaime, Moon, Jin Soo, Popovic, Stevo R., Sorensen, Thorkild I. A., Soric, Maroje, Starc, Gregor, Zainuddin, Ahmad A., Gregg, Edward W., Bhutta, Zulfiqar A., Black, Robert, Ezzati, Majid, Abarca-Gomez, Leandra, Cheng, Ching-Yu, Cooper, Cyrus, Dennison, Elaine, Fall, Caroline H., He, Yuan, Hill, Allan G., Kim, Dong Wook, Liu, Jing, Morgan, Karen, Osmond, Clive, Syddall, Holly E., Taylor, Anne, Wang, Xiangjun, Wang, Ying-Wei, Yang, Yang, Zhao, Dong
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: 2020
• Subjects: New Zealand; Pacific; Iceland
• Online Access: https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/443811/; https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/443811/1/NCDRisC_Height_BMI_trends_Lancet_2020_08_02_clean_final_accepted_version.docx; https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/443811/2/PIIS0140673620318596.pdf

Background: comparable global data on health and nutrition of school-aged children and adolescents are scarce. We aimed to estimate age trajectories and time trends in mean height and mean body-mass index (BMI), which measures weight gain beyond what is expected from height gain, for school-aged children and adolescents. Methods: for this pooled analysis, we used a database of cardiometabolic risk factors collated by the Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factor Collaboration. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1985 to 2019 in mean height and mean BMI in 1-year age groups for ages 5–19 years. The model allowed for non-linear changes over time in mean height and mean BMI and for non-linear changes with age of children and adolescents, including periods of rapid growth during adolescence. Findings: we pooled data from 2181 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in 65 million participants in 200 countries and territories. In 2019, we estimated a difference of 20 cm or higher in mean height of 19-year-old adolescents between countries with the tallest populations (the Netherlands, Montenegro, Estonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina for boys; and the Netherlands, Montenegro, Denmark, and Iceland for girls) and those with the shortest populations (Timor-Leste, Laos, Solomon Islands, and Papua New Guinea for boys; and Guatemala, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Timor-Leste for girls). In the same year, the difference between the highest mean BMI (in Pacific island countries, Kuwait, Bahrain, The Bahamas, Chile, the USA, and New Zealand for both boys and girls and in South Africa for girls) and lowest mean BMI (in India, Bangladesh, Timor-Leste, Ethiopia, and Chad for boys and girls; and in Japan and Romania for girls) was approximately 9–10 kg/m2. In some countries, children aged 5 years started with healthier height or BMI than the global median and, in some cases, as healthy as the best performing countries, but they became progressively less healthy compared with their ...