Ocean and atmosphere influence on the 2015 European heatwave
During the summer of 2015, central Europe experienced a major heatwave that was preceded by anomalously cold sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the northern North Atlantic. Recent observation-based studies found a correlation between North Atlantic SST in spring and European summer temperatures, sug...
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ftsouthampton:oai:eprints.soton.ac.uk:435862 2023-07-30T04:05:17+02:00 Ocean and atmosphere influence on the 2015 European heatwave Mecking, J V Drijfhout, S S Hirschi, J J-m Blaker, A T 2019-11-14 text https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/435862/ https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/435862/1/Mecking_2019_Environ._Res._Lett._14_114035.pdf en English eng https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/435862/1/Mecking_2019_Environ._Res._Lett._14_114035.pdf Mecking, J V, Drijfhout, S S, Hirschi, J J-m and Blaker, A T (2019) Ocean and atmosphere influence on the 2015 European heatwave. Environmental Research Letters, 14 (11), 114035. (doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab4d33 <http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4d33>). cc_by_4 Article PeerReviewed 2019 ftsouthampton https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4d33 2023-07-09T22:33:08Z During the summer of 2015, central Europe experienced a major heatwave that was preceded by anomalously cold sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the northern North Atlantic. Recent observation-based studies found a correlation between North Atlantic SST in spring and European summer temperatures, suggesting potential for predictability. Here we show, by using a high-resolution climate model, that ocean temperature anomalies, in combination with matching atmospheric and sea-ice initial conditions were key to the development of the 2015 European heatwave. In a series of 30-member ensemble simulations we test different combinations of ocean temperature and salinity initial states versus non-initialised climatology, mediated in both ensembles by different atmospheric/sea-ice initial conditions, using a non-standard initialisation method without data-assimilation. With the best combination of the initial ocean, and matching atmosphere/sea-ice initial conditions, the ensemble mean temperature response over central Europe in this set-up equals 60% of the observed anomaly, with 6 out of 30 ensemble-members showing similar, or even larger surface air temperature anomalies than observed. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Sea ice University of Southampton: e-Prints Soton Environmental Research Letters 14 11 114035 |
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Open Polar |
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University of Southampton: e-Prints Soton |
op_collection_id |
ftsouthampton |
language |
English |
description |
During the summer of 2015, central Europe experienced a major heatwave that was preceded by anomalously cold sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the northern North Atlantic. Recent observation-based studies found a correlation between North Atlantic SST in spring and European summer temperatures, suggesting potential for predictability. Here we show, by using a high-resolution climate model, that ocean temperature anomalies, in combination with matching atmospheric and sea-ice initial conditions were key to the development of the 2015 European heatwave. In a series of 30-member ensemble simulations we test different combinations of ocean temperature and salinity initial states versus non-initialised climatology, mediated in both ensembles by different atmospheric/sea-ice initial conditions, using a non-standard initialisation method without data-assimilation. With the best combination of the initial ocean, and matching atmosphere/sea-ice initial conditions, the ensemble mean temperature response over central Europe in this set-up equals 60% of the observed anomaly, with 6 out of 30 ensemble-members showing similar, or even larger surface air temperature anomalies than observed. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Mecking, J V Drijfhout, S S Hirschi, J J-m Blaker, A T |
spellingShingle |
Mecking, J V Drijfhout, S S Hirschi, J J-m Blaker, A T Ocean and atmosphere influence on the 2015 European heatwave |
author_facet |
Mecking, J V Drijfhout, S S Hirschi, J J-m Blaker, A T |
author_sort |
Mecking, J V |
title |
Ocean and atmosphere influence on the 2015 European heatwave |
title_short |
Ocean and atmosphere influence on the 2015 European heatwave |
title_full |
Ocean and atmosphere influence on the 2015 European heatwave |
title_fullStr |
Ocean and atmosphere influence on the 2015 European heatwave |
title_full_unstemmed |
Ocean and atmosphere influence on the 2015 European heatwave |
title_sort |
ocean and atmosphere influence on the 2015 european heatwave |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/435862/ https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/435862/1/Mecking_2019_Environ._Res._Lett._14_114035.pdf |
genre |
North Atlantic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic Sea ice |
op_relation |
https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/435862/1/Mecking_2019_Environ._Res._Lett._14_114035.pdf Mecking, J V, Drijfhout, S S, Hirschi, J J-m and Blaker, A T (2019) Ocean and atmosphere influence on the 2015 European heatwave. Environmental Research Letters, 14 (11), 114035. (doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab4d33 <http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4d33>). |
op_rights |
cc_by_4 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4d33 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
14 |
container_issue |
11 |
container_start_page |
114035 |
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1772817089256488960 |