Climate-driven change in the North Atlantic and Arctic Ocean can greatly reduce the circulation of the North Sea

• Published in: Geophysical Research Letters
• Main Authors: Holt, Jason, Polton, Jeff, Huthnance, John, Wakelin, Sarah, O’dea, Enda, Harle, James, Yool, Andrew, Artioli, Yuri, Blackford, Jerry, Siddorn, John, Inall, Mark
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: 2018
• Subjects: Arctic; Arctic Ocean; North Atlantic
• Online Access: https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/425660/; https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/425660/1/NorthSeaCirculationGRL_3_Revised4_Clean.pdf

We demonstrate for the first time a direct oceanic link between climate‐driven change in the North Atlantic and Arctic oceans and the circulation of the northwest European shelf‐seas. Downscaled scenarios show a shutdown of the exchange between the Atlantic and the North Sea, and a substantial decrease in the circulation of the North Sea in the second half of the 21st Century. The northern North Sea inflow decreases from 1.2‐1.3Sv (1Sv=106 m3s‐1) to 0.0‐0.6Sv with Atlantic water largely bypassing the North Sea. This is traced to changes in oceanic haline stratification and gyre structure, and to a newly identified circulation‐salinity feedback. The scenario presented here is of a novel potential future state for the North Sea, with wide‐ranging environmental management and societal impacts. Specifically, the sea would become more estuarine and susceptible to anthropogenic influence with an enhanced risk of coastal eutrophication.