Super Storm Desmond: a process-based assessment

'Super' Storm Desmond broke meteorological and hydrological records during a record warm year in the British–Irish Isles (BI). The severity of the storm may be a harbinger of expected changes to regional hydroclimate as global temperatures continue to rise. Here, we adopt a process-based a...

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Published in:Environmental Research Letters
Main Authors: Matthews, T., Murphy, C, McCarthy, G, Broderick, C, Wilby, R L
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: 2018
Subjects:
Online Access:https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/417743/
https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/417743/1/Matthews_2018_Environ._Res._Lett._13_014024.pdf
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spelling ftsouthampton:oai:eprints.soton.ac.uk:417743 2023-07-30T04:05:26+02:00 Super Storm Desmond: a process-based assessment Matthews, T. Murphy, C McCarthy, G Broderick, C Wilby, R L 2018-01 text https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/417743/ https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/417743/1/Matthews_2018_Environ._Res._Lett._13_014024.pdf en English eng https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/417743/1/Matthews_2018_Environ._Res._Lett._13_014024.pdf Matthews, T., Murphy, C, McCarthy, G, Broderick, C and Wilby, R L (2018) Super Storm Desmond: a process-based assessment. Environmental Research Letters, 13 (1), [014024]. (doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa98c8 <http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa98c8>). cc_by_4 Article PeerReviewed 2018 ftsouthampton https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa98c8 2023-07-09T22:20:25Z 'Super' Storm Desmond broke meteorological and hydrological records during a record warm year in the British–Irish Isles (BI). The severity of the storm may be a harbinger of expected changes to regional hydroclimate as global temperatures continue to rise. Here, we adopt a process-based approach to investigate the potency of Desmond, and explore the extent to which climate change may have been a contributory factor. Through an Eulerian assessment of water vapour flux we determine that Desmond was accompanied by an atmospheric river (AR) of severity unprecedented since at least 1979, on account of both high atmospheric humidity and high wind speeds. Lagrangian air-parcel tracking and moisture attribution techniques show that long-term warming of North Atlantic sea surface temperatures has significantly increased the chance of such high humidity in ARs in the vicinity of the BI. We conclude that, given exactly the same dynamical conditions associated with Desmond, the likelihood of such an intense AR has already increased by 25% due to long-term climate change. However, our analysis represents a first-order assessment, and further research is needed into the controls influencing AR dynamics. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic University of Southampton: e-Prints Soton Environmental Research Letters 13 1 014024
institution Open Polar
collection University of Southampton: e-Prints Soton
op_collection_id ftsouthampton
language English
description 'Super' Storm Desmond broke meteorological and hydrological records during a record warm year in the British–Irish Isles (BI). The severity of the storm may be a harbinger of expected changes to regional hydroclimate as global temperatures continue to rise. Here, we adopt a process-based approach to investigate the potency of Desmond, and explore the extent to which climate change may have been a contributory factor. Through an Eulerian assessment of water vapour flux we determine that Desmond was accompanied by an atmospheric river (AR) of severity unprecedented since at least 1979, on account of both high atmospheric humidity and high wind speeds. Lagrangian air-parcel tracking and moisture attribution techniques show that long-term warming of North Atlantic sea surface temperatures has significantly increased the chance of such high humidity in ARs in the vicinity of the BI. We conclude that, given exactly the same dynamical conditions associated with Desmond, the likelihood of such an intense AR has already increased by 25% due to long-term climate change. However, our analysis represents a first-order assessment, and further research is needed into the controls influencing AR dynamics.
format Article in Journal/Newspaper
author Matthews, T.
Murphy, C
McCarthy, G
Broderick, C
Wilby, R L
spellingShingle Matthews, T.
Murphy, C
McCarthy, G
Broderick, C
Wilby, R L
Super Storm Desmond: a process-based assessment
author_facet Matthews, T.
Murphy, C
McCarthy, G
Broderick, C
Wilby, R L
author_sort Matthews, T.
title Super Storm Desmond: a process-based assessment
title_short Super Storm Desmond: a process-based assessment
title_full Super Storm Desmond: a process-based assessment
title_fullStr Super Storm Desmond: a process-based assessment
title_full_unstemmed Super Storm Desmond: a process-based assessment
title_sort super storm desmond: a process-based assessment
publishDate 2018
url https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/417743/
https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/417743/1/Matthews_2018_Environ._Res._Lett._13_014024.pdf
genre North Atlantic
genre_facet North Atlantic
op_relation https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/417743/1/Matthews_2018_Environ._Res._Lett._13_014024.pdf
Matthews, T., Murphy, C, McCarthy, G, Broderick, C and Wilby, R L (2018) Super Storm Desmond: a process-based assessment. Environmental Research Letters, 13 (1), [014024]. (doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa98c8 <http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa98c8>).
op_rights cc_by_4
op_doi https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa98c8
container_title Environmental Research Letters
container_volume 13
container_issue 1
container_start_page 014024
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