Emerging negative Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index in spite of warm subtropics
Sea surface temperatures in the northern North Atlantic have shown a marked decrease over the past several years. The sea surface in the subpolar gyre is now as cold as it was during the last cold phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index in the 1990s. This climate index is associated wit...
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ftsouthampton:oai:eprints.soton.ac.uk:414007 2023-07-30T04:05:26+02:00 Emerging negative Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index in spite of warm subtropics Frajka-Williams, Eleanor Beaulieu, Claudie Duchez, Aurelie 2017-09-11 text https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/414007/ https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/414007/1/2017_08_scirep_amo_revised_png.pdf https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/414007/2/s41598_017_11046_x.pdf en English eng https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/414007/1/2017_08_scirep_amo_revised_png.pdf https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/414007/2/s41598_017_11046_x.pdf Frajka-Williams, Eleanor, Beaulieu, Claudie and Duchez, Aurelie (2017) Emerging negative Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index in spite of warm subtropics. Scientific Reports, 7, [11224]. (doi:10.1038/s41598-017-11046-x <http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-11046-x>). cc_by_4 Article PeerReviewed 2017 ftsouthampton https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-11046-x 2023-07-09T22:17:43Z Sea surface temperatures in the northern North Atlantic have shown a marked decrease over the past several years. The sea surface in the subpolar gyre is now as cold as it was during the last cold phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index in the 1990s. This climate index is associated with shifts in hurricane activity, rainfall patterns and intensity, and changes in fish populations. However, unlike the last cold period in the Atlantic, the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature anomalies in the Atlantic is not uniformly cool, but instead has anomalously cold temperatures in the subpolar gyre, warm temperatures in the subtropics and cool anomalies over the tropics. The tripole pattern of anomalies has increased the subpolar to subtropical meridional gradient in SSTs, which are not represented by the AMO index value, but which may lead to increased atmospheric baroclinicity and storminess. Here we show that the recent Atlantic cooling is likely to persist, as predicted by a statistical forecast of subsurface ocean temperatures and consistent with the irreversible nature of watermass changes involved in the recent cooling of the subpolar gyre. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic University of Southampton: e-Prints Soton Scientific Reports 7 1 |
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Open Polar |
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University of Southampton: e-Prints Soton |
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ftsouthampton |
language |
English |
description |
Sea surface temperatures in the northern North Atlantic have shown a marked decrease over the past several years. The sea surface in the subpolar gyre is now as cold as it was during the last cold phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index in the 1990s. This climate index is associated with shifts in hurricane activity, rainfall patterns and intensity, and changes in fish populations. However, unlike the last cold period in the Atlantic, the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature anomalies in the Atlantic is not uniformly cool, but instead has anomalously cold temperatures in the subpolar gyre, warm temperatures in the subtropics and cool anomalies over the tropics. The tripole pattern of anomalies has increased the subpolar to subtropical meridional gradient in SSTs, which are not represented by the AMO index value, but which may lead to increased atmospheric baroclinicity and storminess. Here we show that the recent Atlantic cooling is likely to persist, as predicted by a statistical forecast of subsurface ocean temperatures and consistent with the irreversible nature of watermass changes involved in the recent cooling of the subpolar gyre. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Frajka-Williams, Eleanor Beaulieu, Claudie Duchez, Aurelie |
spellingShingle |
Frajka-Williams, Eleanor Beaulieu, Claudie Duchez, Aurelie Emerging negative Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index in spite of warm subtropics |
author_facet |
Frajka-Williams, Eleanor Beaulieu, Claudie Duchez, Aurelie |
author_sort |
Frajka-Williams, Eleanor |
title |
Emerging negative Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index in spite of warm subtropics |
title_short |
Emerging negative Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index in spite of warm subtropics |
title_full |
Emerging negative Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index in spite of warm subtropics |
title_fullStr |
Emerging negative Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index in spite of warm subtropics |
title_full_unstemmed |
Emerging negative Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index in spite of warm subtropics |
title_sort |
emerging negative atlantic multidecadal oscillation index in spite of warm subtropics |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/414007/ https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/414007/1/2017_08_scirep_amo_revised_png.pdf https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/414007/2/s41598_017_11046_x.pdf |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/414007/1/2017_08_scirep_amo_revised_png.pdf https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/414007/2/s41598_017_11046_x.pdf Frajka-Williams, Eleanor, Beaulieu, Claudie and Duchez, Aurelie (2017) Emerging negative Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index in spite of warm subtropics. Scientific Reports, 7, [11224]. (doi:10.1038/s41598-017-11046-x <http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-11046-x>). |
op_rights |
cc_by_4 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-11046-x |
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Scientific Reports |
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7 |
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1 |
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1772817348320821248 |