Constructing scenarios of regional sea level change using global temperature pathways
The effects of sea level change become increasingly relevant for the Dutch coast. Therefore we construct two scenarios for regional sea-level change in the 21st century. They are designed to follow two temperature pathways, in which global mean temperature rises moderately ('G', +1.5 K in...
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ftsouthampton:oai:eprints.soton.ac.uk:407498 2023-07-30T04:04:13+02:00 Constructing scenarios of regional sea level change using global temperature pathways de Vries, Hylke Katsman, C.A. Drijfhout, Sybren 2014-11-14 text https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/407498/ https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/407498/1/Vries_2014_Environ._Res._Lett._9_115007.pdf https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/11/115007 en English eng https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/407498/1/Vries_2014_Environ._Res._Lett._9_115007.pdf de Vries, Hylke, Katsman, C.A. and Drijfhout, Sybren (2014) Constructing scenarios of regional sea level change using global temperature pathways. Environmental Research Letters, 9 (11), [115007]. (doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/11/115007 <http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/11/115007>). cc_by_4 Article PeerReviewed 2014 ftsouthampton https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/11/115007 2023-07-09T22:14:02Z The effects of sea level change become increasingly relevant for the Dutch coast. Therefore we construct two scenarios for regional sea-level change in the 21st century. They are designed to follow two temperature pathways, in which global mean temperature rises moderately ('G', +1.5 K in 2085) or more substantially ('W', +3.5 K in 2085). Contributions from all major processes leading to sea level rise are included (ocean expansion, glacier melt, ice-sheet changes, and landwater changes), except glacial isostatic adjustment and surface elevation changes. As input we use data from 42 coupled global climate models that contributed to CMIP5. The approach is consistent with the recent fifth assessment Report of IPCC, but provides an alternative viewpoint based on global temperature changes rather than RCPs. This makes them rather accessible and readily applicable to policy makers and the general public. We find a likely range for the G-scenario of +25–60 cm in 2085, and +45–80 cm for the W-scenario. These numbers have been rounded to 5 cm precision, to emphasise to any end-user of these scenarios that estimated lower and upper limits themselves are uncertain. Article in Journal/Newspaper Ice Sheet University of Southampton: e-Prints Soton Environmental Research Letters 9 11 115007 |
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Open Polar |
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University of Southampton: e-Prints Soton |
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ftsouthampton |
language |
English |
description |
The effects of sea level change become increasingly relevant for the Dutch coast. Therefore we construct two scenarios for regional sea-level change in the 21st century. They are designed to follow two temperature pathways, in which global mean temperature rises moderately ('G', +1.5 K in 2085) or more substantially ('W', +3.5 K in 2085). Contributions from all major processes leading to sea level rise are included (ocean expansion, glacier melt, ice-sheet changes, and landwater changes), except glacial isostatic adjustment and surface elevation changes. As input we use data from 42 coupled global climate models that contributed to CMIP5. The approach is consistent with the recent fifth assessment Report of IPCC, but provides an alternative viewpoint based on global temperature changes rather than RCPs. This makes them rather accessible and readily applicable to policy makers and the general public. We find a likely range for the G-scenario of +25–60 cm in 2085, and +45–80 cm for the W-scenario. These numbers have been rounded to 5 cm precision, to emphasise to any end-user of these scenarios that estimated lower and upper limits themselves are uncertain. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
de Vries, Hylke Katsman, C.A. Drijfhout, Sybren |
spellingShingle |
de Vries, Hylke Katsman, C.A. Drijfhout, Sybren Constructing scenarios of regional sea level change using global temperature pathways |
author_facet |
de Vries, Hylke Katsman, C.A. Drijfhout, Sybren |
author_sort |
de Vries, Hylke |
title |
Constructing scenarios of regional sea level change using global temperature pathways |
title_short |
Constructing scenarios of regional sea level change using global temperature pathways |
title_full |
Constructing scenarios of regional sea level change using global temperature pathways |
title_fullStr |
Constructing scenarios of regional sea level change using global temperature pathways |
title_full_unstemmed |
Constructing scenarios of regional sea level change using global temperature pathways |
title_sort |
constructing scenarios of regional sea level change using global temperature pathways |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/407498/ https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/407498/1/Vries_2014_Environ._Res._Lett._9_115007.pdf https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/11/115007 |
genre |
Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Ice Sheet |
op_relation |
https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/407498/1/Vries_2014_Environ._Res._Lett._9_115007.pdf de Vries, Hylke, Katsman, C.A. and Drijfhout, Sybren (2014) Constructing scenarios of regional sea level change using global temperature pathways. Environmental Research Letters, 9 (11), [115007]. (doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/11/115007 <http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/11/115007>). |
op_rights |
cc_by_4 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/11/115007 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
11 |
container_start_page |
115007 |
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1772815481511608320 |