Impact of Initial Conditions versus External Forcing in Decadal Climate Predictions: A Sensitivity Experiment
The impact of initial conditions relative to external forcings in decadal integrations from an ensemble of state-of-the-art prediction models has been assessed using specifically designed sensitivity experiments (SWAP experiments). They consist of two sets of 10-yr-long ensemble hindcasts for two in...
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Online Access: | https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/407486/ https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/407486/1/jcli_d_14_00671.1.pdf |
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ftsouthampton:oai:eprints.soton.ac.uk:407486 2023-07-30T04:05:29+02:00 Impact of Initial Conditions versus External Forcing in Decadal Climate Predictions: A Sensitivity Experiment Corti, Susanna Palmer, Tim Balmaseda, Magdalena Weisheimer, Antje Drijfhout, Sybren Dunstone, Nick Hazeleger, Wilco Kröger, Jürgen Pohlmann, Holger Smith, Doug Storch, Jin-song Von Wouters, Bert 2015-06-01 text https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/407486/ https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/407486/1/jcli_d_14_00671.1.pdf en English eng https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/407486/1/jcli_d_14_00671.1.pdf Corti, Susanna, Palmer, Tim, Balmaseda, Magdalena, Weisheimer, Antje, Drijfhout, Sybren, Dunstone, Nick, Hazeleger, Wilco, Kröger, Jürgen, Pohlmann, Holger, Smith, Doug, Storch, Jin-song Von and Wouters, Bert (2015) Impact of Initial Conditions versus External Forcing in Decadal Climate Predictions: A Sensitivity Experiment. Journal of Climate, 28 (11), 4454-4470. (doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00671.1 <http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00671.1>). Article PeerReviewed 2015 ftsouthampton https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00671.1 2023-07-09T22:14:02Z The impact of initial conditions relative to external forcings in decadal integrations from an ensemble of state-of-the-art prediction models has been assessed using specifically designed sensitivity experiments (SWAP experiments). They consist of two sets of 10-yr-long ensemble hindcasts for two initial dates in 1965 and 1995 using either the external forcings from the “correct” decades or swapping the forcings between the two decades. By comparing the two sets of integrations, the impact of external forcing versus initial conditions on the predictability over multiannual time scales was estimated as the function of lead time of the hindcast. It was found that over time scales longer than about 1 yr, the predictability of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on a global scale arises mainly from the external forcing. However, the correct initialization has a longer impact on SST predictability over specific regions such as the North Atlantic, the northwestern Pacific, and the Southern Ocean. The impact of initialization is even longer and extends to wider regions when below-surface ocean variables are considered. For the western and eastern tropical Atlantic, the impact of initialization for the 700-m heat content (HTC700) extends to as much as 9 years for some of the models considered. In all models the impact of initial conditions on the predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is dominant for the first 5 years. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Southern Ocean University of Southampton: e-Prints Soton Pacific Southern Ocean Journal of Climate 28 11 4454 4470 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Southampton: e-Prints Soton |
op_collection_id |
ftsouthampton |
language |
English |
description |
The impact of initial conditions relative to external forcings in decadal integrations from an ensemble of state-of-the-art prediction models has been assessed using specifically designed sensitivity experiments (SWAP experiments). They consist of two sets of 10-yr-long ensemble hindcasts for two initial dates in 1965 and 1995 using either the external forcings from the “correct” decades or swapping the forcings between the two decades. By comparing the two sets of integrations, the impact of external forcing versus initial conditions on the predictability over multiannual time scales was estimated as the function of lead time of the hindcast. It was found that over time scales longer than about 1 yr, the predictability of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on a global scale arises mainly from the external forcing. However, the correct initialization has a longer impact on SST predictability over specific regions such as the North Atlantic, the northwestern Pacific, and the Southern Ocean. The impact of initialization is even longer and extends to wider regions when below-surface ocean variables are considered. For the western and eastern tropical Atlantic, the impact of initialization for the 700-m heat content (HTC700) extends to as much as 9 years for some of the models considered. In all models the impact of initial conditions on the predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is dominant for the first 5 years. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Corti, Susanna Palmer, Tim Balmaseda, Magdalena Weisheimer, Antje Drijfhout, Sybren Dunstone, Nick Hazeleger, Wilco Kröger, Jürgen Pohlmann, Holger Smith, Doug Storch, Jin-song Von Wouters, Bert |
spellingShingle |
Corti, Susanna Palmer, Tim Balmaseda, Magdalena Weisheimer, Antje Drijfhout, Sybren Dunstone, Nick Hazeleger, Wilco Kröger, Jürgen Pohlmann, Holger Smith, Doug Storch, Jin-song Von Wouters, Bert Impact of Initial Conditions versus External Forcing in Decadal Climate Predictions: A Sensitivity Experiment |
author_facet |
Corti, Susanna Palmer, Tim Balmaseda, Magdalena Weisheimer, Antje Drijfhout, Sybren Dunstone, Nick Hazeleger, Wilco Kröger, Jürgen Pohlmann, Holger Smith, Doug Storch, Jin-song Von Wouters, Bert |
author_sort |
Corti, Susanna |
title |
Impact of Initial Conditions versus External Forcing in Decadal Climate Predictions: A Sensitivity Experiment |
title_short |
Impact of Initial Conditions versus External Forcing in Decadal Climate Predictions: A Sensitivity Experiment |
title_full |
Impact of Initial Conditions versus External Forcing in Decadal Climate Predictions: A Sensitivity Experiment |
title_fullStr |
Impact of Initial Conditions versus External Forcing in Decadal Climate Predictions: A Sensitivity Experiment |
title_full_unstemmed |
Impact of Initial Conditions versus External Forcing in Decadal Climate Predictions: A Sensitivity Experiment |
title_sort |
impact of initial conditions versus external forcing in decadal climate predictions: a sensitivity experiment |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/407486/ https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/407486/1/jcli_d_14_00671.1.pdf |
geographic |
Pacific Southern Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Pacific Southern Ocean |
genre |
North Atlantic Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic Southern Ocean |
op_relation |
https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/407486/1/jcli_d_14_00671.1.pdf Corti, Susanna, Palmer, Tim, Balmaseda, Magdalena, Weisheimer, Antje, Drijfhout, Sybren, Dunstone, Nick, Hazeleger, Wilco, Kröger, Jürgen, Pohlmann, Holger, Smith, Doug, Storch, Jin-song Von and Wouters, Bert (2015) Impact of Initial Conditions versus External Forcing in Decadal Climate Predictions: A Sensitivity Experiment. Journal of Climate, 28 (11), 4454-4470. (doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00671.1 <http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00671.1>). |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00671.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
container_volume |
28 |
container_issue |
11 |
container_start_page |
4454 |
op_container_end_page |
4470 |
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1772817434386890752 |