Abrupt cooling over the North Atlantic in modern climate models
Observations over the 20th century evidence no long-term warming in the subpolar North Atlantic (SPG). This region even experienced a rapid cooling around 1970, raising a debate over its potential reoccurrence. Here we assess the risk of future abrupt SPG cooling in 40 climate models from the fifth...
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ftsouthampton:oai:eprints.soton.ac.uk:406816 2023-07-30T04:05:16+02:00 Abrupt cooling over the North Atlantic in modern climate models Sgubin, Giovanni Swingedouw, Didier Drijfhout, Sybren Mary, Yannick Bennabi, Amine 2017-02-15 text https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/406816/ https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/406816/1/ncomms14375.pdf en English eng https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/406816/1/ncomms14375.pdf Sgubin, Giovanni, Swingedouw, Didier, Drijfhout, Sybren, Mary, Yannick and Bennabi, Amine (2017) Abrupt cooling over the North Atlantic in modern climate models. Nature Communications, 8, [14375]. (doi:10.1038/ncomms14375 <http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14375>). cc_by_4 Article PeerReviewed 2017 ftsouthampton https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14375 2023-07-09T22:13:45Z Observations over the 20th century evidence no long-term warming in the subpolar North Atlantic (SPG). This region even experienced a rapid cooling around 1970, raising a debate over its potential reoccurrence. Here we assess the risk of future abrupt SPG cooling in 40 climate models from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Contrary to the long-term SPG warming trend evidenced by most of the models, 17.5% of the models (7/40) project a rapid SPG cooling, consistent with a collapse of the local deep-ocean convection. Uncertainty in projections is associated with the models’ varying capability in simulating the present-day SPG stratification, whose realistic reproduction appears a necessary condition for the onset of a convection collapse. This event occurs in 45.5% of the 11 models best able to simulate the observed SPG stratification. Thus, due to systematic model biases, the CMIP5 ensemble as a whole underestimates the chance of future abrupt SPG cooling, entailing crucial implications for observation and adaptation policy. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic University of Southampton: e-Prints Soton Nature Communications 8 1 |
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English |
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Observations over the 20th century evidence no long-term warming in the subpolar North Atlantic (SPG). This region even experienced a rapid cooling around 1970, raising a debate over its potential reoccurrence. Here we assess the risk of future abrupt SPG cooling in 40 climate models from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Contrary to the long-term SPG warming trend evidenced by most of the models, 17.5% of the models (7/40) project a rapid SPG cooling, consistent with a collapse of the local deep-ocean convection. Uncertainty in projections is associated with the models’ varying capability in simulating the present-day SPG stratification, whose realistic reproduction appears a necessary condition for the onset of a convection collapse. This event occurs in 45.5% of the 11 models best able to simulate the observed SPG stratification. Thus, due to systematic model biases, the CMIP5 ensemble as a whole underestimates the chance of future abrupt SPG cooling, entailing crucial implications for observation and adaptation policy. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Sgubin, Giovanni Swingedouw, Didier Drijfhout, Sybren Mary, Yannick Bennabi, Amine |
spellingShingle |
Sgubin, Giovanni Swingedouw, Didier Drijfhout, Sybren Mary, Yannick Bennabi, Amine Abrupt cooling over the North Atlantic in modern climate models |
author_facet |
Sgubin, Giovanni Swingedouw, Didier Drijfhout, Sybren Mary, Yannick Bennabi, Amine |
author_sort |
Sgubin, Giovanni |
title |
Abrupt cooling over the North Atlantic in modern climate models |
title_short |
Abrupt cooling over the North Atlantic in modern climate models |
title_full |
Abrupt cooling over the North Atlantic in modern climate models |
title_fullStr |
Abrupt cooling over the North Atlantic in modern climate models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Abrupt cooling over the North Atlantic in modern climate models |
title_sort |
abrupt cooling over the north atlantic in modern climate models |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/406816/ https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/406816/1/ncomms14375.pdf |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/406816/1/ncomms14375.pdf Sgubin, Giovanni, Swingedouw, Didier, Drijfhout, Sybren, Mary, Yannick and Bennabi, Amine (2017) Abrupt cooling over the North Atlantic in modern climate models. Nature Communications, 8, [14375]. (doi:10.1038/ncomms14375 <http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14375>). |
op_rights |
cc_by_4 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14375 |
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Nature Communications |
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8 |
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1 |
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1772817059108880384 |