Western Europe is warming much faster than expected
The warming trend of the last decades is now so strong that it is discernible in local temperature observations. This opens the possibility to compare the trend to the warming predicted by comprehensive climate models (GCMs), which up to now could not be verified directly to observations on a local...
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ftsouthampton:oai:eprints.soton.ac.uk:340334 2023-07-30T04:05:05+02:00 Western Europe is warming much faster than expected van Oldenborgh, G.J. Drijfhout, S. van Ulden, A. Haarsma, R. Sterl, A. Severijns, C. Hazeleger, W. Dijkstra, H. 2009 text https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/340334/ https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/340334/1/cp-5-1-2009.html en eng https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/340334/1/cp-5-1-2009.html van Oldenborgh, G.J., Drijfhout, S., van Ulden, A., Haarsma, R., Sterl, A., Severijns, C., Hazeleger, W. and Dijkstra, H. (2009) Western Europe is warming much faster than expected. Climate of the Past, 5 (1), 1-12. (doi:10.5194/cp-5-1-2009 <http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cp-5-1-2009>). Article PeerReviewed 2009 ftsouthampton https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-5-1-2009 2023-07-09T21:39:49Z The warming trend of the last decades is now so strong that it is discernible in local temperature observations. This opens the possibility to compare the trend to the warming predicted by comprehensive climate models (GCMs), which up to now could not be verified directly to observations on a local scale, because the signal-to-noise ratio was too low. The observed temperature trend in western Europe over the last decades appears much stronger than simulated by state-of-the-art GCMs. The difference is very unlikely due to random fluctuations, either in fast weather processes or in decadal climate fluctuations. In winter and spring, changes in atmospheric circulation are important; in spring and summer changes in soil moisture and cloud cover. A misrepresentation of the North Atlantic Current affects trends along the coast. Many of these processes ontinue to affect trends in projections for the 21st century. This implies that climate predictions for western Europe probably underestimate the effects of anthropogenic climate change. Article in Journal/Newspaper north atlantic current North Atlantic University of Southampton: e-Prints Soton Climate of the Past 5 1 1 12 |
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Open Polar |
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University of Southampton: e-Prints Soton |
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ftsouthampton |
language |
English |
description |
The warming trend of the last decades is now so strong that it is discernible in local temperature observations. This opens the possibility to compare the trend to the warming predicted by comprehensive climate models (GCMs), which up to now could not be verified directly to observations on a local scale, because the signal-to-noise ratio was too low. The observed temperature trend in western Europe over the last decades appears much stronger than simulated by state-of-the-art GCMs. The difference is very unlikely due to random fluctuations, either in fast weather processes or in decadal climate fluctuations. In winter and spring, changes in atmospheric circulation are important; in spring and summer changes in soil moisture and cloud cover. A misrepresentation of the North Atlantic Current affects trends along the coast. Many of these processes ontinue to affect trends in projections for the 21st century. This implies that climate predictions for western Europe probably underestimate the effects of anthropogenic climate change. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
van Oldenborgh, G.J. Drijfhout, S. van Ulden, A. Haarsma, R. Sterl, A. Severijns, C. Hazeleger, W. Dijkstra, H. |
spellingShingle |
van Oldenborgh, G.J. Drijfhout, S. van Ulden, A. Haarsma, R. Sterl, A. Severijns, C. Hazeleger, W. Dijkstra, H. Western Europe is warming much faster than expected |
author_facet |
van Oldenborgh, G.J. Drijfhout, S. van Ulden, A. Haarsma, R. Sterl, A. Severijns, C. Hazeleger, W. Dijkstra, H. |
author_sort |
van Oldenborgh, G.J. |
title |
Western Europe is warming much faster than expected |
title_short |
Western Europe is warming much faster than expected |
title_full |
Western Europe is warming much faster than expected |
title_fullStr |
Western Europe is warming much faster than expected |
title_full_unstemmed |
Western Europe is warming much faster than expected |
title_sort |
western europe is warming much faster than expected |
publishDate |
2009 |
url |
https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/340334/ https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/340334/1/cp-5-1-2009.html |
genre |
north atlantic current North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
north atlantic current North Atlantic |
op_relation |
https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/340334/1/cp-5-1-2009.html van Oldenborgh, G.J., Drijfhout, S., van Ulden, A., Haarsma, R., Sterl, A., Severijns, C., Hazeleger, W. and Dijkstra, H. (2009) Western Europe is warming much faster than expected. Climate of the Past, 5 (1), 1-12. (doi:10.5194/cp-5-1-2009 <http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cp-5-1-2009>). |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-5-1-2009 |
container_title |
Climate of the Past |
container_volume |
5 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
1 |
op_container_end_page |
12 |
_version_ |
1772816803863461888 |